Home Run Picks Today: 3 Dinger Tuesday Home Run Predictions for July 7, 2026

Today's Top Home Run Picks at a Glance

• Alec Bohm (+440)
• Royce Lewis (+470)
• Max Muncy (+285)

With the help of our MLB projections, here are the three home run props worth targeting on FanDuel Sportsbook.

MLB odds via FanDuel Sportsbook and may change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

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Home Run Picks: Home Run Prop Bets for Today

Alec Bohm to Hit a Home Run (+440)

Phillies at Reds, 7:11 p.m. ET

Alec Bohm checks a few boxes tonight.

I really like the matchup for him versus southpaw Andrew Abbott. In previous seasons, the Cincinnati Reds' left-hander has been able to get pretty good results despite not missing many bats. His underlying metrics have reached career-worst levels in 2026, with Abbott sporting a 5.08 SIERA and 17.6% K rate. Against right-handed hitters, he's letting up 1.57 jacks per nine with an ugly 13.9% strikeout rate.

Bohm had a miserable start to the season but is starting to get going. He's got a blistering .435 wOBA so far in July and has a 46.5% fly-ball rate this campaign with the platoon advantage.

Add in homer-friendly Great American Ball Park as well as a Cincy bullpen that is dead last in reliever xFIP (5.05), and Bohm is in a smash spot.

Royce Lewis to Hit a Home Run (+470)

Guardians at Twins, 7:41 p.m. ET

From one previously struggling third basemen to another, Royce Lewis is on my HR radar today in a home matchup with Joey Cantillo.

Cantillo is a decent hurler who always seems close to becoming really good. With that said, he's the owner of a 4.46 SIERA and 41.2% fly-ball rate, so he's a good pitcher to pick on in the dinger market. Righty bats have a .333 wOBA against him, and he's permitted 1.55 jacks per nine on the road this season.

Lewis got demoted to the minors earlier this year. He's been much improved since getting the call back, putting up a .350 wOBA in that time with five long-balls (113 PAs). He's got a juicy batted-ball profile versus LHPs, producing a 39.0% hard-hit rate and 48.8% fly-ball rate in the split.

At +470 odds, Lewis is one of my favorite homer picks on Tuesday.

Max Muncy to Hit a Home Run (+285)

Rockies at Dodgers, 10:11 p.m. ET

I'll be honest -- I think you can make a good case for a few Los Angeles Dodgers tonight. I settled on Max Muncy.

LA is at home against righty Michael Lorenzen, who has pitched to a 4.72 SIERA and 16.2% K rate this season. Lefty hitters are pummeling Lorenzen to the tune of a .448 wOBA, 47.8% hard-hit rate and 1.94 bombs per nine.

Muncy cooks in this split, posting a .367 wOBA, 40.9% hard-hit rate and 44.7% fly-ball rate with the platoon advantage in 2026.

On top of all that, the wind is blowing out at 6 MPH to right-center tonight, and the Colorado Rockies' bullpen has the ninth-worst xFIP this year.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does +210 mean on an MLB home run prop bet?

A +210 line means a $100 bet returns $210 in profit if the player homers. You can bet any amount — a $10 bet at +210 returns $21 in profit. The number reflects the implied probability the sportsbook assigns to the event (roughly 32% for +210 odds).

What happens to my FanDuel HR prop if the player doesn't start?

FanDuel's policy is that a HR prop bet will not be voided if the player records at least one at-bat — even as a pinch hitter. If they don't get any at-bat, the bet is typically voided. Always check FanDuel's official terms before placing your wager.

Can I parlay home run props together on FanDuel?

Yes. FanDuel allows you to parlay multiple HR props as a standard parlay or as part of a Same Game Parlay (SGP) within a single game. All legs must win for the parlay to pay out.

What factors matter most when betting MLB home run props?

Some of the most important factors are: the hitter's recent HR rate and raw power profile, the opposing pitcher's home run rate allowed, ballpark dimensions and park factors, wind direction and game-time temperature, and batter-vs-pitcher handedness splits.

Play the FREE Daily Dingers Game and select a player you think will hit a home run today! If your player hits a DINGER, you’ll get a Profit Boost Token tomorrow to use on ANY MLB Wager! See here for full terms and conditions. Learn about today's other offers at FanDuel Sportsbook Promos.

Which home run props stand out to you today? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB odds to see the full menu of options.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.