Home Run Picks Today: This +500 Home Run Prop Should Be on Your Radar

Today's Top Home Run Picks at a Glance

• Jasson Dominguez (+560)
• Michael Busch (+430)
• Alec Burleson (+500)

Across all of sports, few things are more exciting than the long ball.

That translates to the prop market, too, where each crack of the bat can get our heart pumping.

Using our MLB projections as a guide, which home run props stand out for today's MLB action? Also, you can check out our MLB player news page to stay up to date with lineup news and injuries.

MLB odds via FanDuel Sportsbook and may change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Home Run Predictions: MLB Home Run Picks for Today

Jasson Dominguez to Hit a Home Run (+560)

Yankees at Red Sox, 7:11 p.m. ET

Jasson Dominguez is hammering southpaws so far this season, and that makes these lengthy HR odds appealing in a date with Connelly Early.

The switch-hitting Dominguez, who got a late start to the season due to injury, has posted a .381 wOBA against left-handers this season across a small sample. He homered last night and has two dingers over his last 10 games.

Early is a fine pitcher, but he's getting a little lucky. His underlying metrics -- including a 4.87 FIP -- don't support his 3.64 ERA, and he's got a meh 9.5% swinging-strike rate. Righties have amassed a .339 wOBA and 1.53 jacks per nine innings against him. He's also hit a skid of late, allowing five bombs with a 5.66 ERA over his past four starts.

As an added bonus, there is a slight breeze out to left at hitter-friendly Fenway.

Michael Busch to Hit a Home Run (+430)

Cubs at Mets, 7:11 p.m. ET

Freddy Peralta's first season with the New York Mets has been a struggle, and that puts me on Michael Busch to leave the yard.

After several years of being a quality hurler for the Milwaukee Brewers, Peralta's numbers have gotten worse across the board in 2026. He's pitched to a 4.20 SIERA and 22.1% K rate while allowing 1.26 homers per nine. For reference, he ended 2025 with a 3.68 SIERA and 28.2% strikeout rate.

Lefty bats have been the main issue as they're tagging Peralta for a .352 wOBA and 1.76 homers per nine. He's surrendered 12 tanks -- left-handed hitters account for 11 of them.

Enter Busch, who hit 30 of his 34 homers last year against RHPs. This year, seven of his nine taters have come in the split, and he's produced a .355 wOBA and 41.4% fly-ball rate against righties.

On top of all that, there is a 14-MPH wind blowing out at Citi Field.

Alec Burleson to Hit a Home Run (+500)

Diamondbacks at Cardinals, 7:46 p.m. ET

Similar to Peralta above, Zac Gallen has been a dependable pitcher for a while -- until this season.

Gallen owns a 4.82 SIERA and 14.3% K rate as his numbers have cratered. He's giving up a 47.3% hard-hit rate, miles worse than his 35.2% clip from a season ago. He's had very few answers for left-handed hitters, permitting a .399 wOBA and 52.3% hard-hit rate in the split.

That puts the St. Louis Cardinals' lefties on my radar, and Alec Burleson is the one I'm most into.

Burleson is nuking RHPs to the tune of a .432 wOBA and 40.9% hard-hit rate. Of his 13 long-balls, 12 have come with the platoon advantage, and he can cook against an out-of-form Gallen. He's my favorite HR pick of the day.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does +310 mean on an MLB home run prop bet?

A +310 line means a $100 bet returns $310 in profit if the player homers. You can bet any amount — a $10 bet at +310 returns $31 in profit. The number reflects the implied probability the sportsbook assigns to the event (roughly 24% for +310 odds).

What happens to my FanDuel HR prop if the player doesn't start?

FanDuel's policy is that a HR prop bet will not be voided if the player records at least one at-bat — even as a pinch hitter. If they don't get any at-bat, the bet is typically voided. Always check FanDuel's official terms before placing your wager.

Can I parlay home run props together on FanDuel?

Yes. FanDuel allows you to parlay multiple HR props as a standard parlay or as part of a Same Game Parlay (SGP) within a single game. All legs must win for the parlay to pay out.

What factors matter most when betting MLB home run props?

Some of the most important factors are: the hitter's recent HR rate and raw power profile, the opposing pitcher's home run rate allowed, ballpark dimensions and park factors, wind direction and game-time temperature, and batter-vs-pitcher handedness splits.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.