Home Run Picks Today: 3 Best MLB Home Run Props for Thursday, June 11, 2026

Today's Top Home Run Picks at a Glance

• Vinnie Pasquantino +470
• Kyle Tucker +520
• Austin Riley +410

Across all of sports, few things are more exciting than the long ball.

That translates to the prop market, too, where each crack of the bat can get our heart pumping.

Using our MLB projections as a guide, which home run props stand out for today's MLB action? Also, you can check out our MLB player news page to stay up to date with lineup news and injuries.

MLB odds via FanDuel Sportsbook and may change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Home Run Predictions: MLB Home Run Picks for Today

Vinnie Pasquantino to Hit a Home Run (+470)

Rangers at Royals, 2:11 p.m. ET

Among the day games, the Kansas City Royals-Texas Rangers clash in KC grabs my attention the most as the wind is howling out to right-center at 18 MPH.

Kumar Rocker is going for Texas, and he's having a rough year, pitching to a 4.55 SIERA and 18.7% strikeout rate. Lefties have tagged him for a .332 wOBA and 1.08 jacks per nine in addition to identical 42.4% marks in fly-ball rate and hard-hit rate.

Enter Vinnie Pasquantino.

The KC slugger has taken a step back after a 32-dinger campaign a season ago, but he's at his best against RHPs, producing a 40.7% hard-hit rate and 50.7% fly-ball rate in the split. All of his homers this year have come with the platoon advantage.

With the warm weather and wind helping the ball fly, Pasquantino can leave the yard today.

Kyle Tucker to Hit a Home Run (+520)

Dodgers at Pirates, 6:41 p.m. ET

Mitch Keller has been good this year, but he's not quite as strong against lefty bats, which puts me on Kyle Tucker at these long odds.

Keller has allowed a .328 wOBA to lefties -- not a huge number but way better than his .256 wOBA versus right-handed hitters. He's also running an extremely low 6.6% homer-to-fly-ball rate, which is likely due for regression given that his career clip is 11.2%.

Tucker is having a down year in his first season with the Los Angeles Dodgers; there's no other way to put it. But he's still got a 41.6% fly-ball rate against RHPs and has been way better on the road (.371 wOBA) than at home (.270).

Once Keller is out of the game, Tucker will see a Pittsburgh Pirates bullpen that owns the 10th-worst xFIP.

Austin Riley to Hit a Home Run (+410)

Braves at White Sox, 7:41 p.m. ET

Well, this wasn't my intention, but let's roll with a third HR pick who is in the midst of a trying season.

Austin Riley looked like one of baseball's best young bats not that long ago. He's off his game in 2026, struggling to a .286 wOBA. However, he's still getting the ball in the air plenty (44.7% fly-ball rate) and has eight bombs. His 38.2% hard-hit rate against lefties is a decent number, and I like today's matchup for him.

The Chicago White Sox are giving the ball to southpaw Anthony Kay. Despite getting some better results lately, Kay's underlying numbers look rough, with the lefty sporting a 16.5% K rate and 5.86 expected ERA. Right-handed hitters are destroying him to the tune of a .391 wOBA and 1.79 homers per nine.

To make things even better for Riley, the White Sox have the eighth-worst reliever xFIP.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does +310 mean on an MLB home run prop bet?

A +310 line means a $100 bet returns $310 in profit if the player homers. You can bet any amount — a $10 bet at +310 returns $31 in profit. The number reflects the implied probability the sportsbook assigns to the event (roughly 34% for +310 odds).

What happens to my FanDuel HR prop if the player doesn't start?

FanDuel's policy is that a HR prop bet will not be voided if the player records at least one at-bat — even as a pinch hitter. If they don't get any at-bat, the bet is typically voided. Always check FanDuel's official terms before placing your wager.

Can I parlay home run props together on FanDuel?

Yes. FanDuel allows you to parlay multiple HR props as a standard parlay or as part of a Same Game Parlay (SGP) within a single game. All legs must win for the parlay to pay out.

What factors matter most when betting MLB home run props?

Some of the most important factors are: the hitter's recent HR rate and raw power profile, the opposing pitcher's home run rate allowed, ballpark dimensions and park factors, wind direction and game-time temperature, and batter-vs-pitcher handedness splits.

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Which home run props stand out to you today? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB odds to see the full menu of options.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.