Home Run Picks Today: 3 Best MLB Home Run Props for Thursday, July 2, 2026

Today's Top Home Run Picks at a Glance

• Colson Montgomery +255
• Yandy Diaz +550
• Mookie Betts +470

Across all of sports, few things are more exciting than the long ball.

That translates to the prop market, too, where each crack of the bat can get our heart pumping.

Using our MLB projections as a guide, which home run props stand out for today's MLB action? Also, you can check out our MLB player news page to stay up to date with lineup news and injuries.

MLB odds via FanDuel Sportsbook and may change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Home Run Predictions: MLB Home Run Picks for Today

Colson Montgomery to Hit a Home Run (+255)

White Sox at Guardians, 6:41 p.m. ET

Slade Cecconi is on the bump tonight for the Cleveland Guardians, and that has me interested in Colson Montgomery.

Cecconi is a low-strikeout pitcher (18.1% K rate this year) who has allowed 1.54 jacks per nine in his career.

Montgomery already has 42 homers in his career through his first 622 plate appearances. Against right-handed pitchers, he's got a 54.9% fly-ball rate this season -- with 14 of his 21 bombs this season coming with the platoon advantage. He also has a much higher hard-hit rate on the road (40.0%) than at home (31.9%).

Montgomery has five homers across his last 60 plate appearances, and I like him to go yard again today.

Yandy Diaz to Hit a Home Run (+550)

Rays at Royals, 7:41 p.m. ET

Facing Stephen Kolek, the Tampa Bay Rays catch my eye today as I'm interested in both Jonathan Aranda (+420) and Yandy Diaz. I lean Diaz between the two.

Kolek has struck out only 14.9% of right-handed hitters in his career. He generally does a good job inducing ground balls, which keeps his HR tally low, but any pitcher with a K rate that low is worth a look in the homer market.

Diaz has been one of the game's more underrated hitters for a while, and he's having another superb season, producing a .396 wOBA with 12 home runs and a 40.2% hard-hit rate. He's got a .406 wOBA in righty-righty matchups, with eight of his 12 long-balls coming in the split.

On top of those things, the wind is blowing out to left at 12 MPH in KC, and the Kansas City Royals have the fourth-worst bullpen xFIP this season.

Mookie Betts to Hit a Home Run (+470)

Padres at Dodgers, 10:11 p.m. ET

Mookie Betts is at home against RHP Randy Vasquez, who is showing some slight reverse-splits numbers this season. Right-handed hitters have a 45.9% fly-ball rate against him along with 1.77 homers per nine.

Betts has always been better against righties, and that holds true this season, with the veteran posting a .350 wOBA and 43.3% hard-hit rate in the split. While Betts' 2026 output is down, he's starting to get going, generating a .494 wOBA over his last 33 plate appearances -- a stretch where he's left the yard three times.

At long +470 odds, Betts has a friendly matchup and is heating up. He's my favorite HR pick today.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does +310 mean on an MLB home run prop bet?

A +310 line means a $100 bet returns $310 in profit if the player homers. You can bet any amount — a $10 bet at +310 returns $31 in profit. The number reflects the implied probability the sportsbook assigns to the event (roughly 24% for +310 odds).

What happens to my FanDuel HR prop if the player doesn't start?

FanDuel's policy is that a HR prop bet will not be voided if the player records at least one at-bat — even as a pinch hitter. If they don't get any at-bat, the bet is typically voided. Always check FanDuel's official terms before placing your wager.

Can I parlay home run props together on FanDuel?

Yes. FanDuel allows you to parlay multiple HR props as a standard parlay or as part of a Same Game Parlay (SGP) within a single game. All legs must win for the parlay to pay out.

What factors matter most when betting MLB home run props?

Some of the most important factors are: the hitter's recent HR rate and raw power profile, the opposing pitcher's home run rate allowed, ballpark dimensions and park factors, wind direction and game-time temperature, and batter-vs-pitcher handedness splits.

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Which home run props stand out to you today? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB odds to see the full menu of options.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.