Home Run Picks Today (July 4): Bryce Harper and Two Other Left-Handed Sluggers

Today's Top Home Run Picks at a Glance

• Brandon Lowe (+210)
• Bryce Harper (+420)
• Max Muncy (+400)

Across all of sports, few things are more exciting than the long ball.

That translates to the prop market, too, where each crack of the bat can get our heart pumping.

Using our MLB projections as a guide, which home run props stand out for today's MLB action? Also, you can check out our MLB player news page to stay up to date with lineup news and injuries.

MLB odds via FanDuel Sportsbook and may change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Home Run Predictions Today: MLB Home Run Picks

Brandon Lowe to Hit a Home Run (+210)

Pirates at Nationals, 11:06 a.m. ET

Brandon Lowe is a strong home run target today as the Pittsburgh Pirates face Washington Nationals right-hander Zack Littell. Lowe has been one of Pittsburgh's biggest power threats all season, entering the game with 20 home runs, 58 RBIs and an .818 OPS.

He's in a good spot versus Littell, batting from the left side against a right-handed pitcher who carries a 5.29 ERA into Saturday's start and is allowing an eye-popping 3.38 HRs per nine to lefty bats. Lowe's pull-heavy fly-ball profile plays well in this matchup, and the warm weather at Nationals Park should further boost the ball's carry.

With elite power metrics, favorable hitting conditions, and a hittable opposing starter, Lowe offers dinger upside in today's first game.

Bryce Harper to Hit a Home Run (+420)

Phillies at Royals, 8:11 p.m. ET

Bryce Harper is an appealing home run play today as the Philadelphia Phillies visit the Kansas City Royals and face veteran right-hander Michael Wacha.

Harper has been excellent again in 2026, coming into today with 20 home runs, 57 RBIs, and a .906 OPS. He continues to punish right-handed pitching with elite hard-contact rates. Overall, Harper owns a .409 expected wOBA, his best mark since 2021, and 17 of his 20 bombs have come versus RHPs.

Wacha has pitched decently well, but he doesn't generate an overwhelming number of strikeouts (19.2% K rate) and can be vulnerable when he leaves his changeup or cutter up in the zone against left-handed power bats. Wacha's 4.20 xFIP is much worse than his 3.31 ERA.

Harper's combination of plate discipline, pull-side power, and ability to elevate the baseball makes him a constant threat against low-strikeout righties. He's my favorite HR pick today.

Max Muncy to Hit a Home Run (+400)

Padres at Dodgers, 10:11 p.m. ET

Max Muncy is on my HR radar as the Los Angeles Dodgers continue their series against the San Diego Padres, with Griffin Canning expected to start for San Diego.

Muncy enters the day with 17 home runs, a .378 wOBA and an .873 OPS. He's been one of the hottest hitters in baseball recently, posting an OPS north of 1.100 over his last two weeks while consistently barreling the baseball.

Canning has been susceptible to left-handed power, surrendering a .416 wOBA in the split while permitting 2.60 dingers per nine to lefties.

Muncy's combination of elite hard-hit rates, pull-side power, and the platoon advantage makes him an excellent candidate to take advantage of any mistakes. With his current form and a favorable matchup against a right-handed starter, Muncy stands out as one of the best home run bets on Saturday's slate.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does +310 mean on an MLB home run prop bet?

A +310 line means a $100 bet returns $310 in profit if the player homers. You can bet any amount — a $10 bet at +310 returns $31 in profit. The number reflects the implied probability the sportsbook assigns to the event (roughly 24% for +310 odds).

What happens to my FanDuel HR prop if the player doesn't start?

FanDuel's policy is that a HR prop bet will not be voided if the player records at least one at-bat — even as a pinch hitter. If they don't get any at-bat, the bet is typically voided. Always check FanDuel's official terms before placing your wager.

Can I parlay home run props together on FanDuel?

Yes. FanDuel allows you to parlay multiple HR props as a standard parlay or as part of a Same Game Parlay (SGP) within a single game. All legs must win for the parlay to pay out.

What factors matter most when betting MLB home run props?

Some of the most important factors are: the hitter's recent HR rate and raw power profile, the opposing pitcher's home run rate allowed, ballpark dimensions and park factors, wind direction and game-time temperature, and batter-vs-pitcher handedness splits.

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Which home run props stand out to you today? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB odds to see the full menu of options.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.