Home Run Picks Today: Wilyer Abreu and 2 Longshot Home Run Predictions

Today's Top Home Run Picks at a Glance

• Jonathan Aranda (+470)
• Christian Yelich (+420)
• Wilyer Abreu (+330)

Across all of sports, few things are more exciting than the long ball.

That translates to the prop market, too, where each crack of the bat can get our heart pumping.

Using our MLB projections as a guide, which home run props stand out for today's MLB action? Also, you can check out our MLB player news page to stay up to date with lineup news and injuries.

MLB odds via FanDuel Sportsbook and may change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Home Run Predictions: MLB Home Run Picks for Today

Jonathan Aranda to Hit a Home Run (+470)

Royals at Rays, 6:41 p.m. ET

Jonathan Aranda is at home against a meh right-hander, making these +470 HR odds appealing.

Said RHP is Michael Wacha, the owner of a 4.45 SIERA. Wacha's K rate is 18.8%, and he's been much worse on the road (.340 wOBA) than at home (.270). Lefty bats have amassed a 44.4% hard-hit rate against him.

Aranda hit 14 bombs a year ago and is already up to 12 this campaign. This is his preferred split as he's posted a .386 wOBA, 41.4% hard-hit rate and 40.0% fly-ball rate versus right-handers. Of his 12 dingers, 11 have come with the platoon advantage.

Once Wacha departs, Aranda will see a Kansas City Royals bullpen that holds the sixth-worst xFIP.

Christian Yelich to Hit a Home Run (+420)

Brewers at Reds, 7:11 p.m. ET

Christian Yelich gets a big park-factor bump today in Cincy, and he's taking on Brady Singer, a struggling righty.

Singer has pitched to a 4.64 SIERA and 17.1% strikeout rate so far in 2026. He's giving up a massive 2.32 homers per nine overall, with left-handed hitters mauling him to the tune of a .408 wOBA and 2.48 jacks per nine.

Yelich's power output is down as he's got only five long-balls after launching 29 a year ago. However, he's swinging it well at the moment -- .360 wOBA over his previous 20 plate appearances -- and benefits from this game being at homer-happy Great American Ball Park.

Lastly, the Cincinnati Reds' bullpen is dead last in reliever xFIP.

Wilyer Abreu to Hit a Home Run (+330)

Red Sox at Rockies, 8:41 p.m. ET

Wilyer Abreu checks a lot of boxes tonight.

The most obvious one is the venue as the Boston Red Sox battle the Colorado Rockies in Coors. That can be especially meaningful for Abreu as six of his nine homers this season have come on the road.

The matchup is friendly, too, with the Rox giving the ball to RHP Ryan Feltner. Abreu's results against righties haven't been amazing, but his batted-ball profile in the split looks outstanding as he's got a 41.1% hard-hit rate and 53.2% fly-ball rate. That'll play at Coors.

Feltner has a 4.61 SIERA this season, and Colorado's bullpen has let up the ninth-most tanks per nine.

It all adds up to Abreu being an excellent HR pick today.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does +310 mean on an MLB home run prop bet?

A +310 line means a $100 bet returns $310 in profit if the player homers. You can bet any amount — a $10 bet at +310 returns $31 in profit. The number reflects the implied probability the sportsbook assigns to the event (roughly 24% for +310 odds).

What happens to my FanDuel HR prop if the player doesn't start?

FanDuel's policy is that a HR prop bet will not be voided if the player records at least one at-bat — even as a pinch hitter. If they don't get any at-bat, the bet is typically voided. Always check FanDuel's official terms before placing your wager.

Can I parlay home run props together on FanDuel?

Yes. FanDuel allows you to parlay multiple HR props as a standard parlay or as part of a Same Game Parlay (SGP) within a single game. All legs must win for the parlay to pay out.

What factors matter most when betting MLB home run props?

Some of the most important factors are: the hitter's recent HR rate and raw power profile, the opposing pitcher's home run rate allowed, ballpark dimensions and park factors, wind direction and game-time temperature, and batter-vs-pitcher handedness splits.

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Which home run props stand out to you today? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB odds to see the full menu of options.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.