Home Run Picks Today: 3 Best MLB Home Run Props for Friday, July 3, 2026

Today's Top Home Run Picks at a Glance

• James Wood (+250)
• Gunnar Henderson (+300)
• Jonathan Aranda (+480)

Across all of sports, few things are more exciting than the long ball.

That translates to the prop market, too, where each crack of the bat can get our heart pumping.

Using our MLB projections as a guide, which home run props stand out for today's MLB action? Also, you can check out our MLB player news page to stay up to date with lineup news and injuries.

MLB odds via FanDuel Sportsbook and may change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Home Run Predictions Today: MLB Home Run Picks

James Wood to Hit a Home Run (+255)

Pirates at Nationals, 6:46 p.m. ET

One of the game's elite power hitters, James Wood has a nice matchup today versus RHP Mitch Keller.

Keller has a career-low 18.2% strikeout rate so far in 2026, and left-handed hitters have been an issue for him, with Keller permitting a .344 wOBA and 1.12 bombs per nine in the split.

Wood already has 22 tanks after a 31-homer campaign last season. His expected wOBA is a gaudy .418, and 15 of his 22 homers have come against RHPs. He also owns a 52.2% hard-hit rate and 44.1% fly-ball rate with the platoon advantage.

As an added bonus, the Pittsburgh Pirates have the 12th-worst bullpen xFIP.

With two long-balls across his last three games, Wood is in a groove, and he can put one in the seats.

Gunnar Henderson to Hit a Home Run (+300)

Orioles at Reds, 7:11 p.m. ET

Gunnar Henderson checks a few boxes today and is my favorite HR pick on Friday.

Henderson gets a nice park-factor boost in Cincy, with Great American Ball Park ranking second in home-run factor over the last three seasons, per Statcast.

In addition to that, Henderson has a friendly matchup versus Brady Singer. Singer is struggling to the tune of a 4.43 SIERA and 18.4% strikeout rate. He's had a major gopher-ball problem this season, giving up 2.21 homers per nine. Against lefties, he's surrendered a .392 wOBA and 2.47 dingers per nine.

After a meh 17-homer year a season ago, Henderson already has 16 taters this year -- with 12 of those coming against righties.

The good times can keep coming once Singer is out of the game as the Cincinnati Reds are next to last in bullpen xFIP over the past 30 days.

Jonathan Aranda to Hit a Home Run (+480)

Rays at Astros, 8:16 p.m. ET

Spencer Arrighetti is expected to be on the bump for the Houston Astros, and that puts the Tampa Bay Rays' lefty bats in a good spot.

Left-handed hitters have tagged Arrighetti for a .344 wOBA, 1.37 homers per nine and a 40.0% fly-ball rate. After some decent outings, Arrighetti has been getting torched of late, giving up a 9.00 ERA over his past five starts. He's let up exactly three tanks in each of his last two outings.

Jonathan Aranda has put up a .379 wOBA overall this season, and he's been a monster with the platoon advantage, mauling righties to the tune of a .406 wOBA and 41.3% hard-hit rate. He's hit 13 home runs this year, 12 of which have come against RHPs.

After Arrighetti leaves the game, Aranda will face a Houston bullpen that has the sixth-worst xFIP.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does +310 mean on an MLB home run prop bet?

A +310 line means a $100 bet returns $310 in profit if the player homers. You can bet any amount — a $10 bet at +310 returns $31 in profit. The number reflects the implied probability the sportsbook assigns to the event (roughly 24% for +310 odds).

What happens to my FanDuel HR prop if the player doesn't start?

FanDuel's policy is that a HR prop bet will not be voided if the player records at least one at-bat — even as a pinch hitter. If they don't get any at-bat, the bet is typically voided. Always check FanDuel's official terms before placing your wager.

Can I parlay home run props together on FanDuel?

Yes. FanDuel allows you to parlay multiple HR props as a standard parlay or as part of a Same Game Parlay (SGP) within a single game. All legs must win for the parlay to pay out.

What factors matter most when betting MLB home run props?

Some of the most important factors are: the hitter's recent HR rate and raw power profile, the opposing pitcher's home run rate allowed, ballpark dimensions and park factors, wind direction and game-time temperature, and batter-vs-pitcher handedness splits.

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Which home run props stand out to you today? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB odds to see the full menu of options.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.