Home Run Predictions Today: 3 Lefty Sluggers Top Friday's Home Run Picks

Today's Top Home Run Picks at a Glance

• Jazz Chisholm (+400)
• Trevor Larnach (+480)
• Elly De La Cruz (+300)

Across all of sports, few things are more exciting than the long ball.

That translates to the prop market, too, where each crack of the bat can get our heart pumping.

Using our MLB projections as a guide, which home run props stand out for today's MLB action? Also, you can check out our MLB player news page to stay up to date with lineup news and injuries.

MLB odds via FanDuel Sportsbook and may change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Home Run Picks: MLB Home Run Bets for Today

Jazz Chisholm to Hit a Home Run (+400)

Dodgers at Yankees, 7:06 p.m. ET

There are some air-quality concerns, so it’s not a lock this game plays. But if they play, I like Jazz Chisholm to go yard against Roki Sasaki.

Chisholm isn’t having a great year, but he’s still a lefty bat with good power who will be sporting the platoon advantage at Yankee Stadium. A season ago, he killed it in this split, producing a .387 wOBA and 51.7% fly-ball rate at home against righties.

Sasaki is missing a lot more bats than he did in 2025, but he’s got a massive HR problem. So far in 2026, he’s permitted 2.11 home runs per nine innings while allowing a 42.1% fly-ball rate to lefty bats.

Chisholm is due for an uptick in production, and he can start his second half with a bang today.

Trevor Larnach to Hit a Home Run (+480)

Twins at Cubs, 8:06 p.m. ET

It’s excellent home-run weather today at Wrigley — 85 degrees with the wind blowing out at 9 MPH to center. The HR market has been priced accordingly, with nine players in this game at +350 odds or shorter to go deep.

I think there’s still a little bit of value on Trevor Larnach.

Larnach is at his best versus righties, and that’s what he’ll see today as the Chicago Cubs give the ball to Colin Rea, who has allowed a .368 wOBA to left-handed hitters.

Larnach owns a .374 wOBA and 44.2% fly-ball rate with the platoon advantage. He’s a pinch-hit risk against a lefty, but the Minnesota Twins being short-handed might mean they’d let Larnach hit in a lefty-lefty spot.

Regardless, I’m intrigued by these long odds on Larnach to hit a dinger. He’s in a friendly matchup and can get the ball in the air at Wrigley.

Elly De La Cruz to Hit a Home Run (+300)

Reds at Rockies, 8:41 p.m. ET

Elly De La Cruz is my favorite HR pick today.

Elly is at Coors, which is obviously a nice boost, and he’ll be taking on RHP Gabriel Hughes. A rookie, Hughes put up quality numbers in the minors this season and has been good through his first 9.0 MLB innings. But this will be his first start at Coors, and I think De La Cruz can take advantage.

De La Cruz is having the best offensive year of his career, posting a .363 wOBA and .359 expected wOBA. He’s got a 43.8% hard-hit rate against righties, and he entered the break on a hot streak, generating a .389 wOBA and two bombs over his first 51 July plate appearances.

Once Hughes is out of the game, Elly will face a Colorado Rockies bullpen that has the seventh-worst xFIP across the past 30 days.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does +310 mean on an MLB home run prop bet?

A +310 line means a $100 bet returns $310 in profit if the player homers. You can bet any amount — a $10 bet at +310 returns $31 in profit. The number reflects the implied probability the sportsbook assigns to the event (roughly 24% for +310 odds).

What happens to my FanDuel HR prop if the player doesn't start?

FanDuel's policy is that a HR prop bet will not be voided if the player records at least one at-bat — even as a pinch hitter. If they don't get any at-bat, the bet is typically voided. Always check FanDuel's official terms before placing your wager.

Can I parlay home run props together on FanDuel?

Yes. FanDuel allows you to parlay multiple HR props as a standard parlay or as part of a Same Game Parlay (SGP) within a single game. All legs must win for the parlay to pay out.

What factors matter most when betting MLB home run props?

Some of the most important factors are: the hitter's recent HR rate and raw power profile, the opposing pitcher's home run rate allowed, ballpark dimensions and park factors, wind direction and game-time temperature, and batter-vs-pitcher handedness splits.

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Which home run props stand out to you today? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB odds to see the full menu of options.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.