Home Run Picks Today: 3 Best MLB Home Run Predictions, Props for Monday, July 20, 2026

Today's Top Home Run Picks at a Glance

• Kerry Carpenter to Hit a Home Run (+255)
• Julio Rodriguez to Hit a Home Run (+340)
• Ketel Marte to Hit a Home Run (+255)

Across all of sports, few things are more exciting than the long ball.

That translates to the prop market, too, where each crack of the bat can get our heart pumping.

Using our MLB projections as a guide, which home run props stand out for today's MLB action? Also, you can check out our MLB player news page to stay up to date with lineup news and injuries.

MLB odds via FanDuel Sportsbook and may change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Home Run Predictions Today: MLB Home Run Props, Picks

Kerry Carpenter to Hit a Home Run (+255)

Tigers at Cubs, 8:06 p.m. ET

There’s wind and possible rain in the forecast today in Chicago. It sounds like they should be able to play ball at some point. With the wind blowing out at 16 MPH and Jameson Taillon on the bump for the Chicago Cubs, Kerry Carpenter stands out.

Taillon is making his first start off the IL, and he’s not having a good year, registering a 4.50 SIERA and 50.0% fly-ball rate. He’s allowed a whopping 2.66 homers per nine, including 3.38 to left-handed hitters.

Carpenter needs no help getting the ball in the air, sporting a 52.1% fly-ball rate, and he’s at his best with the platoon advantage.

Keep an eye on the forecast. As long as the wind is expected to be blowing out during the game, Carpenter is a quality HR pick.

Julio Rodriguez to Hit a Home Run (+340)

Reds at Mariners, 9:40 p.m. ET

Andrew Abbott‘s numbers have taken a hit basically across the board, and while he’s in a much better park for pitchers than what he’s used to at his home venue, I like Julio Rodriguez to leave the yard.

J-Rod’s under-the-hood numbers are more or less right in line with his usual output as he boasts a .348 expected wOBA. Getting the ball in the air has always been an issue for him, but his 37.9% fly-ball rate is actually a career-best mark. He’s much more productive against lefties (.361 wOBA) than right-handers (.309), and he’s tagged southpaws for seven homers in only 103 plate appearances in the split.

Rodriguez has also defied the pitcher-friendly ways of T-Mobile Park to put up a .342 wOBA at home, including a .448 wOBA at home versus LHPs.

With Abbott holding a 4.92 SIERA and allowing 1.42 homers per nine to right-handed hitters, Rodriguez checks a lot of boxes today.

Ketel Marte to Hit a Home Run (+255)

Athletics at Diamondbacks, 9:40 p.m. ET

Ketel Marte owns a lengthy track record of success against lefties, and he can cook versus Jeffrey Springs.

Springs has a 4.66 SIERA and 9.9% swinging-strike rate. Righties have gotten to him for a .376 wOBA and an eye-popping 2.70 jacks per nine. Yes, please.

Marte has been way better at home (.357 wOBA) this year than on the road (.306), and he’s nuking lefties to the tune of a .390 wOBA and 46.5% hard-hit rate.

At home and facing a meh southpaw, Marte can add to his HR tally on Monday.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does +310 mean on an MLB home run prop bet?

A +310 line means a $100 bet returns $310 in profit if the player homers. You can bet any amount — a $10 bet at +310 returns $31 in profit. The number reflects the implied probability the sportsbook assigns to the event (roughly 24% for +310 odds).

What happens to my FanDuel HR prop if the player doesn't start?

FanDuel's policy is that a HR prop bet will not be voided if the player records at least one at-bat — even as a pinch hitter. If they don't get any at-bat, the bet is typically voided. Always check FanDuel's official terms before placing your wager.

Can I parlay home run props together on FanDuel?

Yes. FanDuel allows you to parlay multiple HR props as a standard parlay or as part of a Same Game Parlay (SGP) within a single game. All legs must win for the parlay to pay out.

What factors matter most when betting MLB home run props?

Some of the most important factors are: the hitter's recent HR rate and raw power profile, the opposing pitcher's home run rate allowed, ballpark dimensions and park factors, wind direction and game-time temperature, and batter-vs-pitcher handedness splits.

Play the FREE Daily Dingers Game and select a player you think will hit a home run today! If your player hits a DINGER, you’ll get a Profit Boost Token tomorrow to use on ANY MLB Wager! See here for full terms and conditions. Learn about today's other offers at FanDuel Sportsbook Promos.

Which home run props stand out to you today? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB odds to see the full menu of options.

Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook and FanDuel Daily Fantasy today!

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.