Home Run Props Today: Best MLB Home Run Predictions, Picks for Thursday, August 20

Today's Top Home Run Picks at a Glance

• Jonathan Aranda (+570)
• Ronald Acuna Jr. (+410)
• Yordan Alvarez (+240)

Across all of sports, few things are more exciting than the long ball.

That translates to the prop market, too, where each crack of the bat can get our heart pumping.

Using our MLB projections as a guide, which home run props stand out for today's MLB action? Also, you can check out our MLB player news page to stay up to date with lineup news and injuries.

MLB odds via FanDuel Sportsbook and may change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Home Run Props, Best Bets Today

Home Run Prediction: Jonathan Aranda (+570)

Blue Jays at Rays, 1:11 p.m. ET

I went with Jonathan Aranda yesterday, and I’m going back to the well today because I like his matchup with Shane Bieber and I think these odds are a bit too long.

Bieber hasn’t been very sharp in his return from injury, and lefties have been especially hard on him, with Bieber allowing 1.95 homers per nine in the split along with a 42.2% fly-ball rate.

Aranda has hit a career-best 15 dingers this year, 14 of which have come against right-handed pitchers. He also owns a .370 wOBA, 40.2% hard-hit rate and 41.7% fly-ball rate in the split.

Once Bieber leaves the game, Aranda will face a Toronto Blue Jays bullpen that has the eighth-worst xFIP over the last 30 days.

Home Run Prediction: Ronald Acuna Jr. (+410)

Braves at White Sox, 2:11 p.m. ET

Ronald Acuna Jr. gets a low-strikeout lefty today, and that puts him on my HR radar.

Said southpaw is Anthony Kay. After a rough start to the campaign, Kay has improved throughout the season but still has a 4.52 SIERA and 18.1% K rate. Righties have recorded 1.46 jacks per nine against him.

Enter Acuna, who has a .374 wOBA and 40.4% hard-hit rate with the platoon advantage for his career.

The good matchups can keep coming once Kay departs as the Chicago White Sox bullpen has let up the eighth-most HRs per nine over the last 30 days.

Home Run Prediction: Yordan Alvarez (+240)

Angels at Astros, 8:11 p.m. ET

Grayson Rodriguez is showing some flashes lately of getting back to his best. With that said, he’s still knocking off some rust after barely pitching since 2024, and lefty bats have been a big issue for him, with Rodriguez permitting a .398 wOBA and 1.47 homers per nine in the split.

That makes this a mouth-watering matchup for AL MVP frontrunner Yordan Alvarez.

With a .458 expected wOBA this year, Yordan has some truly silly numbers in just about every split. He’s really cooking RHPs, though, mashing his way to a .462 wOBA with the platoon advantage along with a 52.9% hard-hit rate and 49.0% fly-ball rate.

Alvarez also has a 53.0% hard-hit rate overall at home, and he’s amassed an eye-popping .485 wOBA at home, too. Giddy up.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does +310 mean on an MLB home run prop bet?

A +310 line means a $100 bet returns $310 in profit if the player homers. You can bet any amount — a $10 bet at +310 returns $31 in profit. The number reflects the implied probability the sportsbook assigns to the event (roughly 24% for +310 odds).

What happens to my FanDuel HR prop if the player doesn't start?

FanDuel's policy is that a HR prop bet will not be voided if the player records at least one at-bat — even as a pinch hitter. If they don't get any at-bat, the bet is typically voided. Always check FanDuel's official terms before placing your wager.

Can I parlay home run props together on FanDuel?

Yes. FanDuel allows you to parlay multiple HR props as a standard parlay or as part of a Same Game Parlay (SGP) within a single game. All legs must win for the parlay to pay out.

What factors matter most when betting MLB home run props?

Some of the most important factors are: the hitter's recent HR rate and raw power profile, the opposing pitcher's home run rate allowed, ballpark dimensions and park factors, wind direction and game-time temperature, and batter-vs-pitcher handedness splits.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.