Nuggets vs. Heat Game 3 Betting Odds: Moneyline, Spread, Total, and Player Props

The Denver Nuggets and Miami Heat are tied with one win apiece as the NBA Finals head to Florida for Game 3 of their exciting series. The Nuggets established themselves early on with a decisive 104-93 win in Game 1 but let their lead slip away in the fourth quarter of Game 2. They’ll look to adjust to Miami’s ever-changing gameplans as they head into Wednesday’s game.

The Heat rallied for a 36-point fourth quarter in Game 2 of the series to snatch a win from Denver on their home turf and will now get two straight games at home. They have put together an impressive playoff run this year, upsetting multiple top seeds in the Eastern Conference on their road to the NBA Finals.

Game 3 of the series in Miami will tip off at 8:30 p.m. Eastern on ABC.

Here’s how the two teams stack up for Wednesday’s game at the freshly-dubbed Kaseya Center in Miami.

Nuggets vs. Heat Game 3 Betting Odds: Moneyline, Spread, and Total

• Moneyline:
  • Nuggets: -142
  • Heat: +120
• Spread: Nuggets -2.5 (-108)
• Total: 214.5

Nuggets vs. Heat Game 3 Projections

Win projections via numberFire

• Win odds: The Nuggets are 54.2% likely to win in Game 3.

Nuggets vs. Heat Game 3 Player Props: Total Points, and Double Double Odds

• Total Points:
  • Nikola Jokic: 28.5
  • Jamal Murray: 25.5
  • Jimmy Butler: 25.5
  • Bam Adebayo: 19.5
  • Gabe Vincent: 13.5
  • Aaron Gordon: 12.5
  • Michael Porter Jr.: 14.5
  • Kentavious Caldwell-Pope: 9.5
  • Max Strus: 9.5
  • Bruce Brown Jr.: 10.5
• To Record a Double Double
  • Nikola Jokic: -1050
  • Bam Adebayo: +110
  • Jimmy Butler: +165
  • Jamal Murray: +310
  • Michael Porter Jr.: +310
  • Aaron Gordon: +700
  • Bruce Brown Jr.: +3500

Nuggets vs. Heat Advanced Stats Breakdown

nERD via numberFire. Adjusted offensive/defensive ratings, pace, and shot distribution via DunksAndThrees.

• Nuggets:
  • nERD: 60.1 (7th)
  • Adjusted Offensive Rating: 116.9 (5th)
  • Adjusted Defensive Rating: 114.2 (18th)
  • Pace: 98.5 (21st)
  • Shot Distribution and Efficiency:
    • Rim: 39.0% (2nd) - 66.5% (3rd)
    • Mid: 24.9% (12th) - 43.4% (13th)
    • 3PT: 36.1% (21st) - 37.9% (4th)
• Heat:
  • nERD: 47.5 (22nd)
  • Adjusted Offensive Rating: 113.2 (25th)
  • Adjusted Defensive Rating: 113.4 (8th)
  • Pace: 96.3 (29th)
  • Shot Distribution and Efficiency:
    • Rim: 29.9% (29th) - 62.6% (20th)
    • Mid: 29.4% (24th) - 45.3% (7th)
    • 3PT: 40.8% (9th) - 34.4%  (27th)

Nuggets vs. Heat Game 3 Analysis

The Nuggets were able to put together a balanced win in Game 1 of the series; no player eclipsed a 30% usage rate in that game. Michael Porter Jr. played an important role in that win, playing over 40 minutes and amassing 14 points, 13 rebounds, and an assist, but he was a non-factor in Game 2. He had his minutes slashed to just over 26 and finished the contest with 5 points and 6 rebounds while shooting 25.0% from the field and just 16.7% from beyond the arc. He’ll need to step up his play in Game 3 to help the Nuggets stave off another loss.

The Heat appeared to make an interesting choice in Game 2 of the series: letting Nikola Jokic score. The team funneled Jokic to the basket, leading to him scoring a game-high 41 points while his 4 assists were his lowest mark across the entirety of the playoffs. By letting the two-time MVP score, they seemed to be able to focus their defensive efforts on the Nuggets’ other scorers, limiting the rest of Denver’s starters to just 41 points in the contest.

The Heat moved Caleb Martin to the bench to open Game 2, allowing Kevin Love to make his first NBA Finals start since 2018. Martin’s numbers didn’t change much while playing off the bench, but Love’s 10 rebounds in 22 minutes made a difference for the Heat in their win.

They seem likely to stick with this approach at least until Tyler Herro (hand) is able to return to the lineup.

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.