Luka Doncic-Anthony Davis Trade: Betting Odds and Analysis for the Lakers and Mavericks

Perhaps the most shocking trade in the history of sports went down just after midnight early on Sunday morning.

With no rumors or requests from either side, the Dallas Mavericks traded Luka Doncic, Maxi Kleber, and Markieff Morris to the Los Angeles Lakers in exchange for Anthony Davis, Max Christie, and a 2029 1st Round pick.

The Utah Jazz also picked up Jalen Hood-Schifino and two 2nd Round picks to help make the salary work. All the details come via ESPN's Shams Charania.

A 25-year-old MVP candidate in his prime just doesn't get traded -- especially for a 31-year-old NBA Finals winner. How does the landscape of betting the NBA change following this blockbuster deal?

Luke Doncic-Anthony Davis Trade Betting Impact

Before the deal, the Mavericks were +1100 to win the Western Conference and +2000 to win the NBA Finals.

For a "win-now deal", Dallas has now slipped to +1800 to win the West and +3500 to win it all.

The Lakers' chances in both actually improved. L.A. was +1800 to win the Western Conference and +4000 to win the NBA Finals before this deal. They now sit at +950 (third-likeliest) to win the West and +1900 to win it all.

Those are the sixth-shortest odds to win the Finals.

NBA Championship Odds 2024-25

Here is each team's NBA Finals odds ahead of the 2024-25 season as of February 2nd.

NBA Western Conference 2024-25 Winner

As of February 2nd, the Lakers now have +950 odds to win the Western Conference, which is third-best in the conference.

The Mavericks are +1800, slipping to the seventh-best odds in the conference.

What It Means for the Lakers

According to their previous betting odds, the Lakers turned a single first-round pick and parts from a dead-end, aging roster into a 25-year-old MVP candidate.

It's hard to not like this trade from their side.

Luka is a global superstar -- the latest to now wear the Lakers' famed purple and gold. They've secured a decently bright future for likely the next 10 years under Doncic's watch, but Luka's calf injury makes winning this year a tough ask.

The real question becomes what Los Angeles does now. Doncic's ball-dominant skills overlap with a 40-year-old LeBron James, who probably would also like a better shot to win the NBA Finals before he retires than L.A.'s half-baked roster without a big.

Looking to buy a star all season, the Golden State Warriors seem like an ideal destination for James, but that's a lot to ask to make happen before February 6th's trade deadline.

What It Means for the Mavericks

Mavericks GM Nico Harrison made this trade as a "win-now", defensive-minded solution to brewing uncertainty that Doncic would walk from Dallas without any return.

Their betting odds shifting without Doncic is suboptimal, but I actually disagree with that shift. Doncic has only played 22 games this season, yet the Mavs are 10th in net rating (+2.8), and Davis is a two-way superstar they'd add into this group fairly soon. He's day-to-day with an abdominal issue.

A.D. is reportedly happy to play next to an actual center in Dallas, a big market with no state income tax. You never want to be forced to trade a 25-year-old MVP candidate, but if we assume the Doncic-Mavericks relationship was headed toward impending doom, a 31-year-old superstar with an NBA title to confirm his excellence isn't a bad return.

Dallas' top priority now will be holding onto 32-year-old Kyrie Irving, who is set to be a free agent this offseason.

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