Friday Night Football Best Bets: Packers vs. Eagles

One primetime game to kick off the year is good.

Two? Sign me up, baby.

That's what we get to open NFL Week 1 with the Green Bay Packers dueling the Philadelphia Eagles Friday night in Brazil. It's two teams with playoff aspirations, and it sets up as a barnburner.

But where can we find betting value in this game?

Let's check that out, based on where I'm seeing value in FanDuel Sportsbook's NFL betting odds.

All NFL projections via our numbers at FanDuel Research, and NFL odds references are to FanDuel Sportsbook. Lines may change after this article is published.

Betting Picks for Packers vs. Eagles in Brazil

Packers' Moneyline (+110)

When I wrote up my best bets for NFL Week 1 on Tuesday, the Packers' moneyline was included.

It was +132 then. But I still show value, even at +110 now.

That's a big move, pushing the Packers' implied win odds to 47.6% from 43.1%. In order for this to still be a value, it'd have to mean the market was off a minimum of four percentage points to start.

But I've got this one as closer to a coinflip, thanks in large part to the Packers' passing offense. They finished the year ranked fourth in Adjusted Passing Net Expected Points (NEP) per drop back, numberFire's schedule-adjusted EPA metric. That includes the up-and-down start to the year they had as the young receivers got healthy and acclimated to the offense.

So, at +110, this is still a value for me. If it moves even more, then we may have to reevaluate because the market doesn't whiff this much often, and the Eagles could still be the right side. I just want to be high on this Packers team entering the year, and that includes buying in with where the market currently stands.

Total Under 49.5 (-110)

This number is up from 48.5 to open the week. It has inflated enough to where I think the under is a value.

My model puts the total for this game at 47.4. Considering it's an open-air stadium, that's a pretty high number. And yet, it's not as high as the market has things.

Neither defense stood out last year as the Packers were numberFire's 22nd-ranked defense and the Eagles were 29th. But both units have talented individuals, meaning they should be better than that.

This will be our first glimpse of Vic Fangio as the Eagles' defensive coordinator and Jeff Hafley as the Packers'. These guys come with quality reputations and may be better able to utilize the skilled players on each side.

I'm not necessarily projecting those steps forward. The Packers are 23rd in my preseason defensive rankings, and the Eagles are 26th. Despite that, I'm still seeing value on the under. Thus, I feel pretty good in riding with the model and betting against a shootout here.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.