NFL Week 1 Best Bets

The NFL didn't mess around when it released the Week 1 schedule for this year; it wanted to start things with a bang.

We've got two playoff rematches, key divisional matchups, and other games where both teams are aspiring for deep playoff runs.

It's gonna be a blast.

Lucky for us, I do think there's betting value in at least a few of those pivotal games in FanDuel Sportsbook's NFL betting odds. Because of that, if you're so inclined, you can have an extra rooting interest as you plop yourself in front of the TV.

Let's dig in now and outline which bets stand out to me as we kick off the 2024 season.

NFL Week 1 Betting Picks

Packers vs. Eagles

Packers' Moneyline (+132)

This game is at a neutral site, meaning we can just pick who we think has the edge without accounting for homefield.

My numbers slightly favor the Green Bay Packers straight up over the Philadelphia Eagles. That makes a +132 moneyline pretty tough to pass up.

The main selling point here is the Packers' passing offense. Even when you include some growing pains early, they finished the year ranked fourth in numberFire's schedule-adjusted Passing Net Expected Points (NEP) per drop back -- numberFire's in-house EPA metric. The Eagles were a respectable 10th, but they're now adapting to a new scheme, and the Packers' young skill corps has had an offseason to gel.

It's possible I'm too low on the Eagles this year. Maybe bringing in Vic Fangio as defensive coordinator will fully right the ship from last year's second half. But when fading the Eagles involves buying into a very fun Packers team, I'm willing to ride with the model here.

Cowboys at Browns

Cowboys' Moneyline (+120)

In this one, we're asking the Dallas Cowboys' re-tooled offensive line to go on the road and topple Myles Garrett, Jim Schwartz, and the Cleveland Browns.

What could possibly go wrong?

Yes, part of this is being high on the Cowboys entering the year. But I think the even bigger part is skepticism around the Browns.

Deshaun Watson finished last year ranked 36th in Passing NEP per drop back out of 48 quarterbacks with at least 100 drop backs. We've now got a 12-game sample on him in a Browns uniform, and it has been nothing short of a disaster.

They'll enter this year without Nick Chubb and behind an offensive line that is down several key players entering Week 1. At some point, some of the market's aversion to the Cowboys should apply to the Browns, too.

In other words, I understand if you're lower on the Cowboys than I am entering the year. That's a fair take. I just think it goes a bit far to give them 45.5% implied win odds against a team with this many question marks.

Texans at Colts

Under 49.5 Points (-115)

This game absolutely spikes on the "fun" meter, and it'll be played indoors, keeping the elements out of the equation.

That prospect of fun, though, has inflated this total beyond where it should be.

Both of these teams threw the ball at roughly a league-average rate on early downs last year. With the Indianapolis Colts now having Anthony Richardson back in the saddle, you can likely expect that run rate to creep up as they seek to utilize his unique talents. Shane Steichen is probably still going to operate at a blistering pace, and I have this projected as the fastest-paced game on the board, but it's unlikely to be as pass-heavy as we'd like for a shootout.

I'm also expecting a step forward for the Houston Texans' defense this year. They'll be without Denico Autry due to a six-game suspension, but a unit with Derek Stingley Jr. and Danielle Hunter healthy has high-upside potential.

By taking an under here, we're getting wins on key numbers of 49, 47, and 44, and both sides would need to come out firing for an over to hit. That's why I'm comfortable siding with the under even with two entertaining offenses involved.

Titans at Bears

Under 45.5 Points (-115)

This game is the low-calorie version of Texans/Colts. Both quarterbacks should be high on our watch list for the season, but the market seems to have gotten a bit ahead of itself.

The main driver for me here is the Chicago Bears' defense. Opposing quarterbacks averaged just -0.01 Passing NEP per drop back last year after the Montez Sweat trade. That was down from a pitiful mark of 0.27 before the trade. We should expect some regression from that number, but I've got the Bears projected as the sixth-ranked defense entering the year.

That unit will be up against Will Levis, who is entertaining due to chaos more than efficiency. He was 31st in Passing NEP per drop back last year, nestled between a bunch of quarterbacks -- Taylor Heinicke, Desmond Ridder, Ryan Tannehill, Justin Fields, and Kenny Pickett -- who'll be riding the pine in Week 1. He'll need Calvin Ridley and the new pieces along the offensive line to be massive upgrades to get up to league-average metrics.

It's possible Caleb Williams and company light the world on fire right away and make this bet look silly. But my model has this number closer to 40 than 45, allowing me to take the under and feel content in betting on a lower-scoring opener.

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Which bets stand out to you for Week 1? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's latest NFL betting odds to see the full menu of options.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.