Friday Keeneland Picks: 4/11/2025

Keeneland action continues this week, and Friday’s card in Lexington is highlighted by a top-level feature for older turf milers: the Maker’s Mark Mile (G1). The $650,000 feature is always a good early-season look into the best that the division has to offer, and the 2025 edition drew a field of nine exciting runners.

The Friday card at Keeneland features ten races, including a pair of stakes events. In addition to the featured Maker’s Mark Mile, the card also includes the FanDuel Limestone Stakes, a $300,000 turf dash for sophomore fillies that drew an overflow field. The first race starts at 1:00 p.m. EDT, and you can watch all the action on FanDuel TV. You can also place your bets on every race at FanDuel!

With some rain in the forecast for Thursday, turf could be less than firm for Friday’s card, meaning it is particularly important to check for scratches and see how that may affect the pace scenario before you place your bet. Confirming track condition is always a good idea, especially with turf horses; some may move up or down based on whether the footing is firmer or softer.

With less than a month until The Greatest Two Minutes in Sports, keep up with the latest Kentucky Derby Odds and see which Contenders are set to compete!

Keeneland: Friday picks

Race 3 - $16,00 claiming, 1 ⅛ miles on dirt - Papa Yo,

FanDuel odds: 7-2 and 3-1

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Papa Yo (7-2) is one of only two horses who has won at the 1 ⅛-mile dirt distance, something he did three starts back over the Keeneland course. His next two starts have been far less good, but there are reasons to be generous. Both of them came in starter or allowance company, not at the claiming level like last year’s Keeneland try or this one. One of them was on the all-weather at Gulfstream, while the other was on the love-it-or-hate-it Tampa dirt. Now he drops back to the right level, gets back on a surface he has proven he likes, and drew well to get a nice outside stalking trip much like he got three back. This could add up to a winning formula.

Tiger Moon (3-1) may not be quite the same horse he was a year or a year and a half ago … but in this kind of spot, he doesn’t need to be. Even though she drops from a $30,000 tag at Fair Grounds in her last two starts (including a win two back) to $16,000 here, this is Keeneland, and many connections drop in tag just to go for that Keeneland win—which is to say, a $16,000 claimer at Keeneland is going to be tougher than a claimer at that price almost anywhere else, and drops in tag are less suspicious there. Tiger Moon has tactical speed and has been able to work winning or otherwise good trips from inside posts before. He has 1 ⅛-mile stamina, with a win and two seconds in five starts at the trip. And, he has freshened up about two months since his last race at Fair Grounds—trainer Lindsay Schultz wins almost a quarter of the time off similar layoffs, with a positive return on investment over the last three years.

Race 7 - Limestone Stakes, 5 ½ furlongs on the turf - It Ain’t Two, Me Governor

FanDuel odds: 8-1 and 6-1

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With a full field of 12 plus four on the also-eligible list, and all of these fillies being three-year-olds with room to improve, this should be one of the better betting races of the meet.

It isn’t often you see a horse come into a three-year-old race this early in the season with 13 career starts, especially when all those starts came as a juvenile … but that’s the case with the experienced It Ain’t Two (8-1), who makes her first stateside start for new trainer Riley Mott. She has four wins so far, and her good form at both five and six furlongs should bode well at this 5 ½-furlong trip. She has tactical speed that should play well at Keeneland, she shouldn’t lose too much ground from this middle gate, and she gets experienced turf rider Frankie Dettori in the saddle. With some rain in the forecast for Thursday, as well, it’s a positive that she has been able to run well on good and even soft ground in Europe, making the rain less of a worry for her than for many of the runners who have been racing on these shores for their entire careers.

Me Governor (6-1) comes second off the lay for trainer Carlos David, whose runners often move up in that part of their form cycle. She has to deal with a near-outside gate, but may be able to work an outside-pressing trip. She has been able to win on a contested pace, important with some other speed drawn down inside her. She has also been able to run well at both five and six furlongs on the turf, a positive at this distance right between that, and she has won a race over ground rated good, meaning she doesn’t necessarily have to have that hard Florida firm going. She also gets a switch to jockey Jose Ortiz for the first time in her career; this is an upgrade.

Race 9 - Maker’s Mark Mile (G1), one mile on the turf - Carl Spackler, Trikari

FanDuel odds: 9-5 and 8-1

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The horse to beat in the Maker’s Mark Mile is Carl Spackler (9-5). A one-mile specialist, he makes his first start since finishing sixth in the Breeders’ Cup Mile last year, beaten less than three lengths for the entire thing. He came back sharp after his winter layoff last year, typical for a Chad Brown horse. He is also a Grade 1 winner at Keeneland already, as he won the Keeneland Turf Mile (G1) last fall. He won that wire-to-wire, but he has won other races in stalking fashion, meaning he is versatile enough to work a trip. The biggest question is how soft the turf is, because he has never raced over anything softer than good. But, he has won all three of his starts over good turf, so he clearly does not need it to be firm.

The most interesting spoiler candidate is Trikari (8-1). This Graham Motion trainee trailed off a bit late last season after a long campaign, but even then, his last race before the layoff was an extremely troubled run in the Gryan Station, where he was still beaten only three lengths despite a nightmare of a trip. He came close in his only start against older horses last out, boding well for him to step up against older foes now that he has had a bit of time to grow into himself some more. He has the tactical speed to work out a trip, he can run well even if the turf isn’t firm, and he gets a return to jockey John Velazquez, with whom he has a nice rapport. At a price, that’s a lot to like.

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