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French Open Second Round Betting Picks: Wednesday 5/29/24

Kenyatta Storin
Kenyatta Storin@KenyattaStorin

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French Open Second Round Betting Picks: Wednesday 5/29/24

The tennis clay season concludes with the French Open -- otherwise known as Roland-Garros -- bringing us the second Grand Slam of 2024.

We should see plenty of fun matches and storylines emerge over the next couple of weeks, and what better way to get in on the action than by making some wagers on the French Open Betting Odds at FanDuel Sportsbook?

Let's see which second-round matches could have the most betting value on Wednesday.

Danielle Collins vs. Olga Danilovic

Under 20.5 Total Match Games (-122)

Danielle Collins had a disappointing finish in the Strasbourg final just before heading to Paris, losing to fellow American Madison Keys in straight sets, but it's no secret that she's otherwise been practically lights out over the last few months. If we include her first-round victory on Monday, Collins has won 23 of her last 26 matches, and she's now up against a qualifier ranked outside the top 100.

As an indication of how dominant Collins has been lately, she's up to fifth overall in Tennis Abstract's Elo ratings, and that remains the case even if we account for this event's clay courts. Given that her other two losses over this 26-match stretch came against world No. 2 Aryna Sabalenka -- an elite player who she's 0-6 lifetime against -- that Strasbourg defeat looks more like a rare off-day than anything else, and most non-Sabalenka players probably don't want anything to do with Collins right now.

Olga Danilovic comes into the French Open ranked 125th and had some close calls just to make it into the main draw through three qualifying matches. While she did win comfortably in the first round, she still sits at just a 12-10 record this season, and most of those matches have come in lower-level tournaments and qualifying.

Danilovic did give Collins some trouble in their lone head-to-head in Madrid last month, but the American ultimately prevailed 4-6, 6-4, 7-6 (8). Although that might normally give us some pause, Collins has gone three sets in just 3 of her 15 wins during this clay swing and hasn't dropped a set in her last 8 victories.

Massey Ratings is very high on Danielle, projecting a 90% win probability and predicting a straight-sets win. Collins is getting -155 odds to win in straight sets, but we can get more value by betting under 20.5 total match games, as a routine victory by Collins should fall below that number.

Denis Shapovalov vs. Francis Tiafoe

Tiafoe ML (+142)

In a battle of former top-10 players trying to find their form, it frankly doesn't feel great to back either player. Yet seeing Frances Tiafoe as a +142 underdog in what could be closer to a 50/50 match should still pique our interest.

Tiafoe entered Roland-Garros having lost five of his last six matches and didn't exactly inspire confidence by going five sets against qualifier Mattia Bellucci in the first round. Still, coming back against Bellucci from down 2-1 sets to ultimately win 6-3, 3-6, 6-7(8), 6-4, 6-4 shows he's not checked out mentally, and he's a player who's always loved the big stage of Grand Slams. He did have a run to the Houston final -- a clay event -- in April, and despite the losing skid, he's now 12-11 in 2024.

While a near-.500 record might not seem like much, it is when compared to Denis Shapovalov's 8-13 mark. Now ranked 118th in the world, Shapovalov has been coming back slowly after a knee injury ended his 2023 campaign last summer. The Canadian had lost three of his last four before opening this French Open with a first-round win over Luca Van Assche.

Even with Tiafoe's recent poor play, Massey Ratings' model still gives him a 54% win probability over Shapovalov, which would be the equivalent of him being a -117 favorite. Even if we view this as a toss-up between struggling players, the 41.3% implied win probability for Tiafoe at these plus odds seems to be discrediting him a bit too much, and there could be value in holding your nose and backing the American in this particular matchup.


All customers get a 30% Profit Boost to use on a 3+ leg parlay on any French Open Tennis matches until end of day May 29th! See full terms and conditions. Learn about today’s other offers at FanDuel Sportsbook Promos.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.

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