French Open Quarterfinals Betting Picks: Wednesday 6/5/24

The tennis clay season concludes with the French Open -- otherwise known as Roland-Garros -- bringing us the second Grand Slam of 2024.

We should see plenty of fun matches and storylines emerge over the next couple of weeks, and what better way to get in on the action than by making some wagers on the French Open Betting Odds at FanDuel Sportsbook?

Let's see which quarterfinal matches could have the most betting value on Wednesday.

French Open Best Bets

Jasmine Paolini vs. Elena Rybakina

Rybakina -4.5 Games (-122)

Elena Rybakina has enjoyed a fantastic 2024 campaign and has carried that into the French Open beautifully by winning her first four rounds in straight sets. It's not like she's had a cupcake draw, either, as her last two wins have come against Elise Mertens (world No. 27) and Elina Svitolina (world No. 19).

While she skipped competing in Rome before coming to Paris due to an illness, she's now 12-1 on clay this season, and her lone loss came against Aryna Sabalenka. She's also the only player to defeat Iga Swiatek on clay this year.

Overall, Rybakina is 30-5 this year, which includes winning three titles (Brisbane, Abu Dhabi, and Stuttgart) while also finishing runner-up twice (Doha and Miami). Outside of a disappointing second-round exit at the Australian Open, it's hard to find many negatives for the world No. 4 in 2024.

On the other side, Jasmine Paolini has experienced a late-career breakthrough at age 28 that dates back to some deep tournament runs late last season. She opened 2024 with a surprise appearance in the round of 16 at the Australian Open -- she had never made it past the second round of a major before -- and followed that up by winning a title in Dubai, which was just the second of her career. Paolini cracked the top 15 for the first time and was as high as 12th in early May.

While all of this is encouraging for Paolini moving forward, she entered Paris having lost back-to-back matches, and her run to these quarterfinals hasn't been easy, surviving a tight tiebreak in the second round and then going to a deciding set in the third and fourth rounds. This is despite facing players all ranked 70th or higher.

Paolini and Rybakina have faced each other three times, and Rybakina has won both meetings on clay (2023 Rome and 2024 Stuttgart). While Paolini technically won their other match (2023 Cincinnati), it was due to Rybakina retiring from injury.

Massey Ratings is giving Paolini next to no shot of winning this match, projecting a Rybakina win 91% of the time. Opta Analyst's win probability is a bit more conservative (66.3%), but even that mark would put her as a hefty -197 favorite. FanDuel Sportsbook's moneyline odds split the difference between these two models with an implied win probability of 78.5% as a -365 favorite.

Any way you slice it, Rybakina looks like a strong candidate to win in convincing fashion and cover this spread -- something she's done in each of the first four rounds.

Alexander Zverev vs. Alex de Minaur

Zverev -4.5 Games (-122)

After opening the tournament as the guy to defeat Rafael Nadal in what was likely the Spaniard's last-ever French Open, Alexander Zverev hasn't had an easy path to these quarterfinals, going five sets and over four hours in each of the last two rounds against top-25 players Tallon Griekspoor and Holger Rune.

Still, the 2024 Italian Open champion has proven to be resilient and has now won 10 straight matches. Add in that Novak Djokovic withdrew from the tournament due to injury, and the door is open a bit wider for Zverev to take home his first-ever Grand Slam title.

Of course, there's still plenty of work to be done, and he'll have to get through Alex de Minaur to advance to the semis first. The good news for Zverev is this could be the right opponent for a less strenuous victory.

That's because the German has dominated the head-to-head against de Minaur 7-2, and clay has historically been the Australian's weakest surface (45% clay win rate). While de Minaur has made great strides as a player this season after cracking the top 10 for the first time -- and he's up to a solid 10-4 clay record in 2024 -- Zverev has thrived on this surface his entire career (73% clay win rate).

Massey Ratings projects a 68% win probability for Zverev, which aligns with his 71.8% implied odds as a -255 favorite. Backing Zverev to win in straight sets (+200) is tempting at plus odds, but his shakiness in recent matches suggests it might be wise to be less bold and pick him to cover the spread.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.