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Fantasy Football Winners and Losers From Week 15

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Fantasy Football Winners and Losers From Week 15

You know it's been a nasty week in the NFL when the list of "stock down" players is easier to compile than those whose stock rose.

That's what we got in Week 15. And what better time than the first round of the fantasy playoffs?

Luckily for us, it wasn't all doom and gloom across the slate. There were some players who got quality usage and could be contributors if you manage to make it through the muck of this week.

Let's dig into it, starting on the bright side before delving into players whose outlook is more grim.

As a note, none of the "stock up" players will be there due to an injury to a teammate. For full injury analysis -- and there was plenty of it -- check out our Week 15 fantasy football recap.

All snap-rate data is via Next Gen Stats. Here, a "deep" target is more than 15 yards beyond the line of scrimmage, and "red-zone share" is the percentage of team carries or targets inside the red zone.

Stock Up for Fantasy Football

Davante Adams

We got to see vintage Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams Sunday. For that, we are all winners.

Adams turned 12 targets into 198 yards and 2 touchdowns. Bizarrely, all of that production came in the second half as Adams was blanked in the opening two quarters. But he just kept putting up chunk gains as the New York Jets scored 32 points.

This was reassuring to see. We don't know what Adams' or Rodgers' futures with the Jets holds, and they're not in playoff contention. There's a world where they pack it in and coast down the stretch. Sunday made it seem like that won't be the case.

That's obviously big for Adams, but I believe it boosts Garrett Wilson, as well. Wilson went for 114 yards on 10 targets last week, so big games are easily within his range of outcomes. As long as this team keeps pushing, both Adams and Wilson should be viewed as status quo, which is a hyper-positive outlook.

Moneyline

Spread

Total Match Points

Dec 22 6:01pm UTCMore odds in Sportsbook

Dalton Kincaid and Keon Coleman

Neither Dalton Kincaid nor Keon Coleman missed a beat in their first game back for the Buffalo Bills.

Both players ran 20 routes, tied for third on the team behind Dawson Knox (23) and Khalil Shakir (22). Kincaid tied Shakir for the team lead in targets with seven, and three of those were deep.

Coleman finished with just two targets, but both were long balls, and he hauled them in for 64 yards. That ranked second on the team behind just Ty Johnson.

To pave the way for this, Amari Cooper was fully put on ice, running just 13 routes with 0 targets.

We now have a three-game sample where all three of Coleman, Cooper, and Kincaid have played the full game. Here's the target distribution in that split.

With Coleman, Kincaid, and Cooper
Overall Targets
Deep Targets
RZ Targets
Khalil Shakir25.0%7.4%15.8%
Dalton Kincaid20.8%25.9%15.8%
Keon Coleman16.7%25.9%21.1%
Amari Cooper7.3%3.7%5.3%

Both Kincaid and Coleman are getting high-leverage work and a high enough overall share to be in the mix. That's really all you can ask for when it's tied to someone as lethal as Josh Allen.

I bought into Cooper based on his 14-target game last week, and it bit me. So maybe I'm wrong to keep chasing these pass-catchers. But each target from Allen is so valuable that I think this is a worthwhile endeavor even if it can flop. Thus, both Kincaid and Coleman are guys I want eyes on down the stretch.

Moneyline

Spread

Total Match Points

Dec 22 9:25pm UTCMore odds in Sportsbook

Jalen McMillan

As Jalen McMillan has gotten further into his rookie season, it seems like he has finally started to grow more comfortable, which is what you would hope for and expect. Week 15 was easily his best game thus far.

McMillan was second on the team with six targets, trailing only Mike Evans. He turned that into 75 yards and a touchdown. The 75 yards were a season high for McMillan, the second straight week he has set a new max.

You'll sometimes see rookies get a boost coming out of the bye, which provides them with a quick reset to take a breath. McMillan's pre- and post-bye splits seem to point to that happening here.

Jalen McMillan
Yards Per Route Run
Target Per Route Rate
Before Bye0.714.5%
After Bye1.617.0%

Even if it's still not perfect, McMillan is earning trust from Baker Mayfield, and Mayfield is slinging it right now. McMillan is on the DFS radar when you like the Tampa Bay Buccaneers' passing offense, and he's a desperation starter in season-long, as well, if injuries elsewhere have you in a bind.

Moneyline

Spread

Total Match Points

Dec 23 1:21am UTCMore odds in Sportsbook

Stock Down for Fantasy Football

CJ Stroud

I was holding out some hope that the Week 14 bye would allow the Houston Texans to do some self-scouting and sort out the demons that had ailed the offense the first 13 games.

That hope is gone.

C.J. Stroud in Week 15 averaged -0.06 Passing Net Expected Points (NEP, numberFire's EPA metric) per drop back. The league average is around 0.07, and Stroud was at 0.08 before the bye.

It's brutal.

We know the Texans have talent, especially at quarterback and in Nico Collins. Eventually, things should click, and they should start to hang big numbers again. It's just hard to justify counting on that when you're in the fantasy semifinals and desperately need a big number out of your quarterback.

At this point, we're probably in "I gotta see it" mode with Stroud. Until he proves to you he can have an upside game for fantasy again, he's likely best left on the bench outside of superflex leagues. And with just two weeks left in the season for fantasy, it's possible we can't plug him in until 2025, which is pretty gut-wrenching with how fun he was last year.

Breece Hall

It's great to see Breece Hall grit his way through an injury to play even though the Jets' playoff hopes are done.

We just need to lower expectations for fantasy in a big way.

Hall played just 48.1% of the snaps in Week 15, easily his lowest of the season. He turned 9 carries and 2 targets into just 51 yards from scrimmage, his lowest since Week 5.

Hall seemingly escaped the game without further damage to his knee, so it's possible his snap rate goes back up next week.

The problem is that Isaiah Davis is playing well, meaning there's no reason to push Hall too hard in a lost season. The Jets' best move is to keep Hall limited, and it seems like that's how they'll play things.

I'd still be okay starting Hall in a good number of season-long leagues. He's not completely dust, and again, he could get a better workload as he gets further removed from the injury. But you'll want to give alternatives an extra long thought because we're unlikely to get Hall's full workload again this year.

Tony Pollard

Most of the downsides for Hall apply to Tony Pollard, as well.

Pollard is playing through an injury on a team with no postseason aspirations, and he has a backup in Tyjae Spears who is playing well.

If you're the Tennessee Titans, why force a full workload on Pollard, who already has 230 carries this year?

We should treat Pollard similarly to how we're viewing Hall where he's still startable at times but a good bit below his baseline. And as for Spears, he becomes a desperation flex play, given he should play around 45% of the snaps and get decent work in the passing game.


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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.

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