Fantasy Football Week 15 Injuries, Breakouts, Snap Rates, and Takeaways
With the fantasy playoffs beginning this week, you're always crossing your fingers, hoping for health so that the best team wins.
Nope.
Instead, we got key injuries at each position, likely impacting plentiful matchups. It's the unfortunate nature of the beast.
What's the fallout of those injuries, and what else should we note from Week 15's action thus far?
Let's dig into all of it, starting with the injuries before delving into role changes, snap rates, usages, and more.
All snap-rate and average depth of target (aDOT) data is via Next-Gen Stats unless noted otherwise. A "deep" target here is more than 15 yards beyond the line of scrimmage.
Key Injuries to Track Entering Week 16
Patrick Mahomes
It certainly seemed like Patrick Mahomes could have returned from an ankle injury Sunday had the Kansas City Chiefs not held a two-score lead. But we still need to figure out how we'd view them if Carson Wentz were forced to take the reins.
We haven't seen significant action out of Wentz in a while. His only start since 2022 was with the Los Angeles Rams in Week 18 last year. In that one, Wentz averaged 0.34 Passing Net Expected Points (NEP, numberFire's EPA metric) per drop back. That's a great mark for his passing efficiency.
But Wentz also decided to go full psychopath, running 17 times for 56 yards and a touchdown. He seemingly figured he had nothing to lose, and it was effective. The Rams won, 21 to 20.
As a result, if you were desperate in a superflex league, Wentz would be a viable option, both due to his environment and the potential for rushing.
We would have to downgrade the pass-catchers significantly, though. They were struggling to put up big numbers with Mahomes, and Wentz is -- obviously -- a sizable downgrade. You'd still start Travis Kelce in all leagues, but everybody else would be a fringe starter at best.
Geno Smith
It looks like we avoided the worst-case scenario for Geno Smith. Head coach Mike Macdonald said after the game that Smith's knee looked structurally okay even though he was unable to return. An absence for Smith would likely torpedo this offense, though.
Smith has been performing a high-wire act all year long, trying to keep the Seattle Seahawks on track despite a struggling offensive line. And Smith was truly battling before the injury, as well. But Sam Howell was much worse in relief, averaging -0.76 Passing NEP per drop back.
For the season, Smith is at 0.07 Passing NEP per drop back. With the Washington Commanders last year, Howell was at -0.07, in large part due to his propensity for taking sacks. This would be a big downgrade to an offense that was already sputtering, making even D.K. Metcalf and Jaxon Smith-Njigba merely acceptable season-long options.
The one piece you could still trust at least a bit would be Zach Charbonnet if Kenneth Walker III were to sit again. Charbonnet didn't have a huge night but did play 78.6% of the snaps and churn out a long touchdown. They'd likely try to keep things conservative in order to save Howell from himself, and that kind of workload would be enough to make Charbonnet a firm starter at worst.
Alvin Kamara
If you've got Alvin Kamara entering a season-long semifinal, you can breathe a half sign of relief. Kamara is considered day-to-day with a groin injury, according to Nick Underhill of New Orleans Football. There's a good chance he can go in Week 16.
If not, Kendre Miller would likely have a meaty role. The team showed last week they wanted to get Miller some work, and Miller out-snapped Jamaal Williams, 47.1% to 7.8%, on Sunday.
Miller had 9 carries and 1 target, turning them into 46 yards from scrimmage. It's not a good offense, but he's talented and getting a solid workload. That'd be enough to give him a sniff in most formats.
If Kamara does go, though, we'll want to lower expectations, assuming Derek Carr misses another game. Before the injury, Kamara had just 12 rushing yards on 5 carries, and he need a trick-play touchdown to get to 70 yards from scrimmage.
Kamara's production has generally been poor without Carr, so this wasn't a surprise. When you combine it with the desire to get Miller a look, we do need to give alternatives to Kamara increased consideration, even if we don't ultimately bench him.
Nick Chubb
It was great to see Nick Chubb get back on the field after last year's gruesome knee injury. That, though, almost makes it an even bigger bummer that he's now done for the season after breaking his foot.
Jerome Ford stepped up and busted off a huge touchdown, part of a 104-yard-from-scrimmage showing. Ford easily out-snapped Pierre Strong Jr., 58.3% to 10.0%, and Strong didn't log a single carry or target.
Given Ford was splitting work down the middle with Chubb, we should expect him to be the lead back. We'll just have to be a bit cautious here. The Cleveland Browns gave Dorian Thompson-Robinson reps at the end of the game, and if they decide to see what he's got, the entire offense could take a step back.
Ford's role projects well enough for him to be a season-long starter, but we'll want to give him a downgrade if DTR gets an audition.
Jaylen Waddle
Jaylen Waddle remained in uniform the entire game Sunday despite suffering a knee injury. After the game, head coach Mike McDaniel said the Miami Dolphins would learn more about the injury on Monday.
As a result, Jonnu Smith (11), Tyreek Hill (7), De'Von Achane (7), and Malik Washington (6) all had 6-plus targets, though nobody had more than 52 yards. It was Washington who led the way there across five catches.
The team has been trying to get Hill going for a while, so I don't think a Waddle injury would impact Hill's outlook a ton. He'd have a path to a ceiling due to his speed and Tua Tagovailoa's efficiency, but the median expectation would still be lower than what it was for Hill before his wrist injury.
Smith would remain a high-quality tight-end target with both a respectable median and ceiling outcome relative to the position. Both categories would get a boost without Waddle.
As for Washington, he'd primarily be viable for deeper leagues or for DFS if you were stacking the game. He hasn't gotten many deep targets this year, but he did play 61.3% of the snaps in Week 15. That's enough for him to at least be on the radar if they try to see what he can do.
Trey Benson
The Arizona Cardinals have done a good job of managing James Conner's reps this year, resting him when they could. Their ability to do that, though, took a hit Sunday with Trey Benson leaving due to an ankle injury.
With Benson forced out, Conner played 71.9% of the snaps. He had 16 carries and 5 targets with 8 of those opportunities coming in the red zone (out of 12 team chances). Conner was hyper-effective on those looks as he racked up 138 yards from scrimmage, his second best mark this year.
The Cardinals are still alive for the postseason, but they need to keep stacking wins. We should expect Conner's role to remain meaty until that changes or until his backfield mates get healthier.
Zach Ertz
The Washington Commanders were already without Noah Brown entering Sunday. Then they lost Zach Ertz with a concussion, making the pass-catching corps ultra thin.
It led to even more looks for Terry McLaurin.
McLaurin had 10 targets, the only player with more than four. He turned them into 73 yards and 2 touchdowns.
The coaching staff did seem to be scheming up more looks for McLaurin, as well. He ran 20.6% of his routes from the slot and 35.3% of his routes on the right side of the formation, up from marks of 18.1% and 15.1%, respectively, for the season. If Ertz misses time, we should feel even more secure about the floor and the ceiling for McLaurin.
Dyami Brown and Ben Sinnott are the other two deserving of bumps up, even if they're moderate. Brown ran 33 routes on 39 drop backs, turning 4 targets into 30 yards. He'd be purely a desperation dart throw.
Sinnott would be similar. Although he ran 19 routes, he finished with just 1 target for 7 yards. He now has 5 targets across 87 routes for the season. He comes with draft capital, so he's worth monitoring, but that's about as far as I can go right now.
Jaleel McLaughlin
Jaleel McLaughlin was playing well before the Denver Broncos' bye, but a quad injury cut his day short in Week 15.
With McLaughlin sidelined, Javonte Williams out-snapped Audric Estime, 54.1% to 19.7%. This would make Williams the top option in the backfield if McLaughlin misses time.
Still, it'll be tough to trust anybody. The coaching staff has ridden the hot hand all year, and they're giving Marvin Mims some rush attempts, too. You can take swipes when desperate -- you'd rather have a two-player committee than one with three players -- but it's nothing beyond that.
Alec Pierce
In what was already a rough day for the Indianapolis Colts Sunday, they lost Alec Pierce to a concussion, as well.
If Pierce sits, it would open up more looks for Adonai Mitchell. I just don't think it'd make me super itchy to use Mitchell, or Josh Downs or Michael Pittman Jr., for that matter.
Anthony Richardson completed 17 passes on 38 attempts Sunday. That actually tied his second-highest mark of the year and was just the third time he has topped 12. There just aren't many receptions to go around here, and given Pierce was simply a deep-ball merchant, his absence wouldn't change that much.
Tommy DeVito
After getting the starting job back due to a Drew Lock injury, Tommy DeVito went down with a concussion in Week 15. It led to Tim Boyle stepping in his place.
We've seen Boyle-led offenses crumble consistently in the past. If neither Lock nor DeVito can go next week, we'd have to downgrade Malik Nabers and Tyrone Tracy Jr. even more than we already have.
Nabers can still be startable. He had 10 catches for 82 yards and a touchdown with Boyle getting most of the reps Sunday. He's just not anywhere near what his usage says he should be due to a lack of efficiency out of the quarterbacks. And Tracy -- despite a solid role -- is a fringe starter at best, as well.
Fantasy Football Role Changes
Brian Thomas Jr. and Brenton Strange
With Evan Engram done for the season, you could have expected huge usage for Brian Thomas Jr. He got that.
But Brenton Strange got fed, too, potentially giving us two viable Jacksonville Jaguars down the stretch.
Thomas was the story. He turned his 14 targets into 105 yards and 2 touchdowns. In Mac Jones' starts, Thomas has yardage totals of 12, 82, 86, and 105, so his floor is still low. That ceiling helps make up for it, though, making Thomas a starter in all formats.
Strange was in double digits, too, with 11 targets, and he turned his into 73 yards. In games without Engram, Strange's target share is 16.7%, and most of those were played alongside Christian Kirk and Gabriel Davis, who have since gone down to injury. With how deep tight end has been, there's a good chance you've got a better option, but he's at least in play if you're desperate.
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Breece Hall
It was a bit of a surprise when New York Jets interim head coach Jeff Ulbrich announced Friday that Breece Hall would play through a knee injury in Week 15.
Clearly, though, he wasn't 100%, and it's hard to expect that to change with the Jets' postseason hopes dust.
Hall played just 48.1% of the snaps on Sunday. That's despite the fact that Braelon Allen missed a chunk of time in the first half due to injury.
Instead, Isaiah Davis stepped into a 38.9% snap rate. Davis has played well when given chances -- and so has Allen, when healthy -- so with Hall banged up, there's really no reason to over-extend him.
It's possible Hall's role goes back up a bit next week. I do, though, think that we should be more receptive to alternatives given Hall's injury and the way the Jets' season has gone.
Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears
Whether it was due to a negative game script or the ankle injury Tony Pollard dealt with during the week and in the game, Tyjae Spears played a bigger role than usual Sunday.
Spears out-snapped Pollard, 55.4% to 44.6%, Spears' highest snap rate of the season. Pollard still had 17 carries, but he finished with no targets while Spears had seven. Spears took advantage, too, with 87 yards receiving and 2 total touchdowns.
Pollard is on a multi-year contract, and they've put a ton on his shoulders this season. They should try to scale him back the final few games. Spears' playing well gives them an excuse to do so, boosting his stock while putting a dent in Pollard's.
Noteworthy Fantasy Football Usage
Davante Adams
As noted above, the Jets' postseason hopes are over. Thus, there was some risk they'd scale back usage of their stars, as they did with Hall.
That very much did not happen with Davante Adams.
Instead, Adams turned 12 targets into 198 yards and 2 touchdowns. It was his second straight time topping 100 yards and the second most yards in a game of his entire career.
Adams now has double-digit targets in each game since the bye, leading the team in each game. You can start him with confidence in season-long, and he's obviously in play for season-long, too.
Garrett Wilson deserves similar treatment. Although he had just 56 yards Sunday, we know he can command a bunch of work, and the Jets are keeping their foot on the gas. Until that's no longer the case, both Adams and Wilson are high-usage players in an offense that's good enough to trust.
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AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith
Whether it was due to public bickering or some dings and dents to Saquon Barkley, the Philadelphia Eagles finally let it rip on Sunday. And it went exactly how you'd expect.
Both DeVonta Smith (12) and A.J. Brown (11) had double-digit targets. It was the first time all year either of them had exceeded 10 and the first time either hit double digits since Week 3. The rest of the team combined for just six looks.
This is why we discussed still targeting the Eagles in DFS in last week's stock up/stock down piece: if they do throw, you know where it's going. We shouldn't expect them to suddenly become an air raid attack, but they can be on the map for tournaments regardless due to this upside.
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The Lions' Skill Players
We finally got to see the Detroit Lions in a negative game script Sunday, and it led to huge usage for Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jahmyr Gibbs.
St. Brown handled 18 of 54 targets, converting it into 193 yards and a touchdown. Six of those targets were in the red zone with three deep, so they were high-leverage looks, as well.
Whenever we expect pass attempts to increase here, we should boost our view of St. Brown. The same is true for Sam LaPorta, who had a season-high 10 targets. I'd be more inclined to target Jameson Williams in spots where you expect increased efficiency or big-play chances rather than volume.
As for Gibbs, he played a season-high 74.0% of the snaps, his first time playing more than two-thirds. He had 7 targets, which he turned into 83 yards and a touchdown (while adding a touchdown on the ground). The more neutral to negative the script, the more we should expect Gibbs to be the featured back.
The Bills' Pass-Catchers
For the first time since Week 9, the Buffalo Bills had their full complement of pass-catchers on the field with Keon Coleman and Dalton Kincaid back. It completely jumbled their usage.
Here are the key usage numbers for the main cogs within the passing game.
In Week 15 | Overall Targets | Deep Targets | RZ Targets | Routes | Snaps |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Khalil Shakir | 7 | 1 | 1 | 22 | 58.8% |
Dalton Kincaid | 7 | 3 | 0 | 20 | 47.1% |
Mack Hollins | 3 | 0 | 1 | 20 | 51.5% |
Dawson Knox | 3 | 1 | 1 | 23 | 73.5% |
Curtis Samuel | 2 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 26.5% |
Keon Coleman | 2 | 2 | 0 | 20 | 63.2% |
Amari Cooper | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 44.1% |
I got jazzed about Amari Cooper after his 14 total targets last week. His route number was lower than that this week. He's untrustworthy in any format.
To me, Kincaid is the top target within the passing game. Even on limited snaps, he still had multiple deep targets for the fourth time in his past seven games. When you get that at tight end tied to the MVP favorite quarterback, it's a lot to like.
Finally, I'd keep close tabs on Coleman. Even with just two targets Sunday, he still had more receiving yards than anybody but Ty Johnson. Coleman had seven targets in his final two full games before his injury, and Cooper played in both of those. He's the guy with the best odds to eventually supplant Kincaid as my preferred pass-catcher as things stand.
CeeDee Lamb
The Dallas Cowboys scored 27-plus points for the third time in four games Sunday, meaning Cooper Rush is at least moving the ball. He's doing so by force-feeding CeeDee Lamb targets.
Lamb had 13 targets Sunday, his third time with 12-plus across Rush's 6 starts. He turned it into 116 yards, putting him into triple digits for the first time in that span.
We do need to keep that in mind: Lamb hasn't had the efficiency necessary for a huge ceiling. You can get a big game via volume alone, though, and Lamb has that, making his situation as good as it could be with a backup quarterback.
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The Panthers' Pass-Catchers
Jalen Coker returned from a three-game absence and threw a wrench into the Carolina Panthers' receiver usage.
Coker's six targets were second on the team behind Adam Thielen with seven. But Coker housed a long touchdown, getting him to 110 yards on the day, more than double Thielen. Nobody else had more than 19.
It's hard to tell how much of this was due to a groin injury for Xavier Legette, who ran a route on just 11 of 34 drop backs. Given that both Coker and Thielen ran 29-plus routes, they should be steady even if Legette is more full next time out.
If you decide to target the Panthers' passing game in DFS, Coker would be my top choice as he seems to have a bit more upside than Thielen. Theilen would be the clear No. 2 for me, and nobody else should be in your player pool.
Additional Notes
- Chase Brown had 10 red-zone opportunities Sunday out of 17 total team chances. He got that on a 92.2% snap rate. He continues to have one of the best roles of any running back in the league.
- Isiah Pacheco's snap rate went back down to 37.3% Sunday, but I'm curious if the weather played a role in that. He was in the 60% range prior to the two-minute warning in the first half. The field was messy due to rain, and the score was somewhat in hand. Thus, I don't want to over-react and assume Pacheco's role will remain poor in the coming weeks.
- Last week, it looked like Tank Bigsby had overtaken Travis Etienne as the Jags' lead back. Then Sunday, Etienne played 70.1% of the snaps and turned 14 carries and 5 targets into 85 yards from scrimmage. This is likely to remain a split, and it could be hard to predict who will be the lead guy, making both tough to trust.
- Stone Smartt -- as expected -- had a solid role without Will Dissly on Sunday. Smartt ran 22 routes on 37 drop backs, earning 6 total targets with 2 deep and 1 in the red zone. If Dissly misses another game, Smartt will be on the streaming radar once again.
- Kimani Vidal didn't get much work, but he did play a ton of snaps in a negative game script. Vidal led the Los Angeles Chargers with a 66.7% snap rate in Week 15. We can give him a bump up in spots where the Chargers may have to throw more, and given how much they're struggling to run, that could be most situations in the near future.
- It looks like Jalen McMillan has surpassed Cade Otton as the Tampa Bay Buccaneers' No. 2 pass-catcher. McMillan had six targets Sunday, his second straight game finishing ahead of Otton, and he was productive on his looks with 75 yards and a touchdown. McMillan showed flashes earlier in the year, but if his rapport with Baker Mayfield can continue to build, he'll be on the DFS radar when the Bucs are in potential shootouts.
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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.