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Fantasy Football Winners and Losers From Week 13

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Fantasy Football Winners and Losers From Week 13

At this point in the year, unless something wild happens, we're not seeing dramatic shifts in a player's fantasy football outlook.

We've gotten a pretty large sample on each team, meaning we know what to expect. Thus, even the smallest deviations can make an impact as we look for edges down the stretch.

Week 13 was one defined by those small, impacful shifts.

Let's dig into whose stock rose -- even for the most mundane reasons -- and whose fell in Week 13 and outline what it means for their fantasy football outlook.

As a note, none of the "stock up" players will be due to injuries to their teammates. Check out our Week 13 fantasy football recap for all of those takeaways, of which there were plenty, unfortunately.

All snap rate data is via Next Gen Stats. Here, a "deep" target is more than 15 yards beyond the line of scrimmage, and "red-zone share" is the percentage of the team's carries or targets a player has received inside the red zone.

Stock Up for Fantasy Football

Brock Bowers and Jakobi Meyers

From a usage perspective, nothing really changed in Week 13 for Brock Bowers and Jakobi Meyers. That's not what makes them winners, though their production was sick.

What boosts them is that Aidan O'Connell played pretty well, a deviation from what they've been getting this year.

O'Connell finished the game with 0.14 EPA per drop back, according to Next Gen Stats. That was the second-highest mark for a starting Las Vegas Raiders quarterback this year, and it came on the road against a solid pass defense.

For the season, O'Connell is now at 0.00 EPA per drop back, up from -0.17 out of Gardner Minshew. This team can't run the football, which jacks up their passing volume. If you pair that volume with merely acceptable efficiency, then we can start to see big games.

Both Meyers and Bowers have insane roles. Here are their target shares in games both have played without Davante Adams.

Weeks 4 to 5, 8 to 13
Overall Targets
Deep Targets
RZ Targets
Jakobi Meyers29.2%36.1%28.6%
Brock Bowers28.8%27.8%21.4%
Tre Tucker14.0%27.8%10.7%

You were already starting Bowers no matter what. He's just more attractive now, and he's a great DFS target even at lofty salaries in poor game environments.

Meyers, though, is someone we need to be even higher on. He has 100-plus yards in 2 of his past 4 games and had 97 in another. With O'Connell showing life, Meyers could be a big producer down the stretch.

Moneyline

Spread

Total Match Points

Dec 8 6:00pm UTCMore odds in Sportsbook

Trey McBride

Trey McBride is similar to Bowers: you're starting him in season-long, regardless, so we don't need to change actions there.

I really, really want to buy into him for DFS, though, because he has a 30-bagger in his range of outcomes.

McBride had 12 more targets Sunday, pushing his season-long target share in games he has played to 28.3%. That's the norm for him.

The reason he was a winner, though, is that he got three red-zone targets. As you likely know, McBride doesn't have a receiving touchdown yet this year. But his red-zone target share is now 33.3%.

This is a dam waiting to burst, and I want to be there when it does.

McBride has 100 yards and 2 touchdowns as a realistic outcome. That's hard to overcome at tight end if he's not on your roster. Thus, even in a repeat divisional matchup that featured just 22 points a couple weeks ago, I want to actively go out of my way to ensure McBride is in my lineup on Sunday.

Moneyline

Spread

Total Match Points

Dec 8 9:05pm UTCMore odds in Sportsbook

Nick Westbrook-Ikhine

Nick Westbrook-Ikhine is bizarro McBride where he's not allowed to catch a ball that isn't a touchdown.

That's starting to shift, though, and it's making his surge stickier.

Westbrook-Ikhine had a season-high eight targets Sunday. In now four games since Will Levis' return, NWI's target share is up to 19.6%.

Past 4 Games
Overall Targets
Deep Targets
RZ Targets
Calvin Ridley25.0%47.8%33.3%
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine19.6%34.8%16.7%

Westbrook-Ikhine has just one red-zone target in this span, meaning he's feasting on long plays. That's going to regress. But that's also possible when you're getting deep targets, and Westbrook-Ikhine has averaged two per game in this span.

The median outcome for Westbrook-Ikhine still isn't great. This passing offense is tremendously flawed, and his volume is more fine than elite. His odds of reaching his ceiling increase, though, as the targets creep up, and we're seeing that now. He's worth a waiver add and startable next week with six teams on bye.

Moneyline

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Total Match Points

Dec 8 6:00pm UTCMore odds in Sportsbook

Bucky Irving

Every week, it feels like Bucky Irving adds another infinity stone to his workload gauntlet.

In Week 10, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers iced Sean Tucker, narrowing it to a two-man backfield.

In Week 12, Irving ran more routes than Rachaad White.

Then on Sunday, Irving dominated early-down work, racking up 25 carries for 152 yards. He still had 3 targets for 33 yards, as well, giving him 185 yards from scrimmage. He has now topped 150 in consecutive games.

The snap rates won't blow you away -- he's at 54.8% and 53.2% the past two games -- but he's playing too well to leave on the bench. And with the Bucs now tied for the NFC South lead, they need their best players out there. It's clear that's Irving.

This is a spot to keep buying high. Irving's good enough to be a solid play even if his workload remains what it has been. But there's still potential for things to grow even more with how well he's playing, giving him a massive ceiling down the stretch.

Rico Dowdle

Rico Dowdle's the one bright spot in what has been a grim season for the Dallas Cowboys, and he keeps earning more work.

On Thursday, Dowdle played 70.6% of the snaps, his second highest mark this year. He also set a new season-high with 123 yards from scrimmage, his third time topping 100 and second straight game with 98-plus.

The offense has stabilized under Cooper Rush, lowering the odds they completely collapse. As long as they avoid that, Dowdle's workload is good enough now for him to be a dependable season-long option.

Moneyline

Spread

Total Match Points

Dec 10 1:16am UTCMore odds in Sportsbook

Jonathan Taylor

Going back to our initial theme, the positives for Jonathan Taylor in Week 13 were subtle, but they definitely matter for fantasy.

Specifically, Taylor had 11 red-zone chances on Sunday, nearly double his previous high this season (6). That was good for a 61.1% red-zone share, his highest in a game where the team had more than three red-zone chances.

Anthony Richardson still stole a goal-line carry, and Taylor isn't getting any work in the passing game. But Taylor has upside via rushing yardage and touchdowns, so we shouldn't over-adjust for Richardson's presence.

The Indianapolis Colts are on bye this week, but I want to keep in mind that Taylor's ceiling is better than it has looked thus far, making him a prime buy-low candidate down the stretch.

Stock Down for Fantasy Football

Chuba Hubbard

There were red flags for Chuba Hubbard early in Week 13, and then he lost a crucial fumble late. It's time for antennas to go up if you have him in season-long.

Specifically, Jonathon Brooks' role expanded. His snap rate increased to 20.6% from 8.6%, and he snagged 3 targets. Importantly, Brooks had 5 of 12 red-zone chances while Hubbard had 1.

That could easily be variance. All of Brooks' red-zone chances came on the same drive, so it's possible that was just his turn in the rotation. But now with Hubbard losing a key fumble, they have an excuse to expand Brooks' workload right away.

I'd still roll out Hubbard in most spots in season-long. You'd need a loaded roster to bench him. But that's at least now a consideration whereas it was not before, and we should keep close tabs on his role in Week 14.

Aaron Jones

I'm not sure if it's the yips or what, but Aaron Jones fumbled twice Sunday, giving him four fumbles the past three games. This time, it hurt his role.

Jones played just 51.0% of the snaps, his lowest in a full game this year. He had just 5 carries and 4 targets for 28 yards from scrimmage.

We've seen Cam Akers' role expand in the interest of keeping Jones fresh. Now, Jones is giving the Minnesota Vikings another reason to consider scaling back his workload.

Jones is still the better passing-game back than Akers, so he should keep that role. And he'll still easily notch double-digit carries in most games. But we should lower expectations a decent amount until he cures the fumble issues and starts to separate from Akers again.

Kareem Hunt

If you had Kareem Hunt, you kinda knew this was coming. But Isiah Pacheco's Week 13 return was a good reminder of why Hunt was on thin ice.

Hunt has seemed to wear down as the season has gone along, which is understandable given he didn't have a training camp. The Kansas City Chiefs recognized this as Hunt's Week 12 snap rate was 54.4%, his lowest since his season debut. He still led in snaps in Week 13 at 40.3%, but that's probably the highest he'll be for a while.

That's because Pacheco actually broke a long play, something Hunt hasn't done. Pacheco's 34-yard rush was double the longest rush Hunt has generated this year.

For the season, Pacheco is at +19 rushing yards over expected, per Next Gen Stats. Hunt is at -85. This will be Pacheco's backfield again soon, making Hunt droppable and best suited for the bench if you decide to keep him.


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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.

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