Fantasy Football Week 13 Injuries, Breakouts, Snap Rates, and Takeaways
The year from hell for the San Francisco 49ers added yet another crushing blow Sunday.
Christian McCaffrey sustained a knee injury early on and now may be done for the year. Given that he had looked the best he had all year before the injury, it's an absolute gut punch.
We'll lead things off in this Week 13 recap by running through the implications of McCaffrey's injury in what is turning into a lost season for the defending NFC champions. Then, we'll dig into other noteworthy injuries, role changes, snap rates, and more to note from the slate's action.
All snap-rate and average depth of target (aDOT) data is via Next-Gen Stats unless noted otherwise. A "deep" target here is a target 16-plus yards beyond the line of scrimmage.
Key Injuries to Monitor Entering Week 14
Christian McCaffrey
With McCaffrey potentially sidelined the rest of the way, Jordan Mason will shift back into the lead role for the 49ers. I'd just lower expectations on him from where he was at earlier in the season.
Mason seemed to be losing some ground to Isaac Guerendo before McCaffrey's return. in Week 5 -- before Mason's shoulder injury -- he played 63.5% of the snaps. That was down from marks of 73.3% or higher in each of the first four games. It seemed like they wanted to take at least some of the load off of Mason.
Mason was the clear lead option Sunday, playing 51.1% of the snaps despite McCaffrey playing early, a concussion evaluation, and a blowout script where Guerendo iced things out. That's a really solid number, and we should be high on Mason. I just wouldn't expect him out there for an 80% snap rate like he was the first couple of weeks.
It's enough for him to be an every-week starter, and he's on the DFS radar in the right spots. Just temper expectations a bit and consider adding Guerendo off waivers in case they decide to give him a look down the stretch.
Trevor Lawrence
In his first game back from a left shoulder injury, Trevor Lawrence left due to a concussion sustained on a dirty hit, putting him very much in doubt for Week 14.
Mac Jones played great in relief and nearly led the Jacksonville Jaguars to victory. The larger sample on Jones this year has been extremely poor, though. He has averaged -0.13 Passing Net Expected Points (NEP, numberFire's EPA metric) per drop back. For context, Lawrence is currently at 0.02. Thus, it's a big downgrade even with Jones looking frisky Sunday.
He did, at least, funnel work to Parker Washington, Brian Thomas Jr., and Evan Engram. Washington turned 12 targets into 103 yards and a touchdown while Thomas had 76 and a touchdown. Engram was less productive with just 41 yards.
That has been the year for Engram: lots of targets and lackluster output. I wouldn't be super eager to start him if Jones is at the helm.
You can at least talk yourself into Thomas, knowing he'll get volume and is talented. And Washington should be added because his baseline target projection should be higher than that of other receivers on the wire right now.
Taysom Hill
Taysom Hill has, objectively, been a fun football player to watch this year. Unfortunately, it looks like his season is done due to a knee injury.
While this boosts Alvin Kamara as it's one less guy to steal goal-line touchdowns, it also dings the entire offense. They need playmakers, and Hill was one of the few remaining. Thus, I'm inclined to view it as a lateral move for Kamara as the offense could just struggle to get chugging with yet another injury.
The one person I'd be willing to take swipes at is Juwan Johnson. Johnson tied for the team lead with seven targets, two of which were in the red zone with two deep, as well. He could be an option if you're desperate for a streamer.
CeeDee Lamb
Jerry Jones has already said that CeeDee Lamb should be good to go after suffering a shoulder injury on Thanksgiving. His absence pushed Brandin Cooks back to relevancy in his first game off of IR.
Cooks ran just 20 routes but earned 7 targets, including a short touchdown. That route total trailed team-leader Jalen Tolbert, but Tolbert earned just four targets.
Tolbert had plenty of chances to command a bigger role while Cooks was out and didn't separate. Thus, if Lamb were to miss time, I'd prefer Cooks between the two. It is worth remembering, though, that Jake Ferguson wasn't out there for this one and would likely be the favorite to lead the team in targets if he were to play. It's hard to love any of the pass-catchers here even if Lamb is out.
Ladd McConkey
Ladd McConkey was going full alpha Sunday, going over 100 yards receiving in the first half. But he seemed to be playing hurt the entire time, and he was eventually announced as questionable to return with a knee injury.
At some point, McConkey is likely to miss time. He had previously dealt with shoulder and hip injuries, and as mentioned, he was limping even before this. He has played through everything thus far, but there has to be a breaking point eventually.
If McConkey does miss time, Quentin Johnston would get a boost. He was the only other Los Angeles Chargers player with multiple targets (four) on Sunday. He has a 26.8% deep target share in the games he has played, so while Josh Palmer would also get more work, Johnston would be the top option.
If McConkey winds up being good to go, we should treat him like a target hog. With the 12 targets Sunday, McConkey's season-long target share is up to 24.9%. He has multiple deep targets in three of the past four games, as well, so both his median expectation and ceiling are on the rise.
Dallas Goedert
The Philadelphia Eagles notched another win without DeVonta Smith Sunday. Smith seems likely to return in Week 14, but now they may be without Dallas Goedert.
Goedert left Week 13 with a knee injury and didn't return. We've already seen the team with Smith and without Goedert in Weeks 7 through 9, and everything ran through Smith and A.J. Brown.
Weeks 7 to 9 | Overall Targets | Deep Targets | RZ Targets |
---|---|---|---|
AJ Brown | 27.3% | 30.0% | 0.0% |
DeVonta Smith | 27.3% | 40.0% | 20.0% |
The raw target totals were still low because the Eagles -- justifiably -- have abandoned the pass in favor of a freakshow rush offense. But this team is efficient, meaning Smith and Brown can still have big games even on muted volume.
Thus, if Goedert does miss time again, we can boost Smith and Brown while completely ignoring everybody else.
Rashod Bateman
Rashod Bateman was ruled out with what head coach John Harbaugh called a "sore" knee, meaning his injury may not be a long-term one. If he is out, though, it'd boost expectations for Mark Andrews and Isaiah Likely.
Both players could have been due for a role expansion, anyway, with Charlie Kolar hitting IR over the weekend. But with Bateman exiting, Andrews played 73.2% of the snaps, and Likely was at 50.7%. Likely led the team with eight targets while Andrews tied Zay Flowers for second with seven.
I'm very willing to buy in on Andrews. His role had been trending up the previous few weeks, and now we have more reason to believe that's sticky. His median expectation isn't amazing, but his path to a ceiling game is pretty obvious in this offense.
As for Likely, he's more of a player you can consider in DFS when you love the passing offense. I'd have a harder time committing to him in season-long with seemingly plenty of viable tight ends right now.
I'd prefer to ignore the non-Flowers receivers entirely. Tylan Wallace ran 23 routes to 21 for Nelson Agholor, but neither went for more than 14 yards. Meanwhile, Diontae Johnson didn't play a snap despite Bateman's injury, and Harbaugh gave an odd response when asked why. The vibes there are abysmal, so the tight ends are the far preferable route here.
Roschon Johnson
Lost in the shuffle with all the chaos around the Chicago Bears was that Roschon Johnson suffered a concussion on Thursday, putting his status up in the air for Week 14.
This did result in D'Andre Swift's snap rate going up to 69.5%, his highest since Week 8. But Travis Homer still gobbled up third-down snaps, so Swift finished with just 11 carries and 3 targets.
Swift would get bumped up if Johnson were to miss time. We'd just want to keep in mind that Homer would still mix in, preventing us from viewing Swift as a true every-down back.
Noah Brown
The Washington Commanders are heading into their bye, and the timing is great as No. 2 receiver Noah Brown left Sunday's game with a rib injury and didn't return.
From Week 6 on, Brown is tied with Terry McLaurin for second on the team in targets, trailing Zach Ertz. Yes, every part of that statement is insane. It also means an absence for Brown would be legitimately impactful.
McLaurin led the team with a 26.7% target share on Sunday, followed by Ertz at 20.0%. If things concentrate around McLaurin even a bit, he'd have great upside the rest of the way, given how efficient he and Jayden Daniels have been.
As far as the other receivers, Dyami Brown would be the top option. He ran 16 routes, ahead of Olamide Zaccheaus (12) and Luke McCaffrey (8). Brown has averaged 1.3 yards per route run while earning a target on 17.4% of his routes. Neither number is where you want it, so you'd have to temper expectations, but I'd be most willing to roll the dice on him if Noah Brown can't play after the bye.
Calvin Austin III
Calvin Austin III played a part in the shootout between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Cincinnati Bengals with a nice touchdown grab, but he later left due to a concussion.
Austin has had a non-negligible role in the offense this year as his season-long target share is 11.7%. Thus, it's at least noteworthy that Pat Freiermuth tied a season-high with seven targets Sunday. He produced on those, too, with 68 yards and a touchdown.
I'd still want more data before rolling out Freiermuth above legitimate options, but it's fair to give him at least a slight boost if Austin can't go in Week 14.
Demarcus Robinson
With how much work Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp command, it's hard for others to gain fantasy relevance. Still, it's worth noting that Demarcus Robinson suffered a hand injury Sunday and didn't return.
Tutu Atwell was the only guy other than the above three to earn multiple targets. He ran just 10 routes, though, edging out Tyler Johnson (5) and Jordan Whittington (1). Atwell is the guy most likely to earn a role if Robinson misses time, but even then, the most you could expect is five-ish targets per game with how concentrated things are around the top two.
Fantasy Football Role Changes
Kyren Williams and Blake Corum
Prior to Sunday, Kyren Williams' lowest snap rate of the season was 78.8% in a blowout Week 2 loss.
He played just 67.3% in Week 13, ceding a healthy amount of work to Blake Corum.
Williams still got to 113 yards from scrimmage, but he did it on just 15 carries and 1 target. Corum had 8 carries for 42 yards on a 32.7% snap rate.
We had talked last week about Williams' decreased passing-game usage and red-zone role. This is another concern to add to the pile. He'll still be a decent starter, but we need to downgrade expectations from where he was earlier in the year when he was the lone ranger in this backfield.
Rico Dowdle
We know the Dallas Cowboys' offense won't be as efficient without Dak Prescott, but at least they've finally committed to Rico Dowdle as their lead back.
Dowdle played 70.6% of the snaps Thursday, his second time hitting the 70% mark. He turned 22 carries and 3 targets into 123 yards from scrimmage, a new season-high.
In the four games Cooper Rush has started, Dowdle is averaging 77.8 yards from scrimmage but has now gone 98 and 123 across the past two. That's enough to make him a solid starter in season-long, and he's a DFS option as long as you have reasonable scoring expectations for Dallas.
Aaron Jones
Aaron Jones fumbled twice Sunday, and it clearly impacted his playing time.
Jones played just 51.0% of the snaps, his lowest in a game he didn't leave due to injury. He had five carries and four targets as the team leaned more heavily on the aerial attack with just 15 total rush attempts.
The Minnesota Vikings had been trying to work in more Cam Akers at times, anyway, to prevent Jones from being overworked. This just gives them another reason to further dig into Jones' workload.
Jones will still be the team's lead back, and he's still someone I'd want to start in season-long. This does, though, lower his median expectation and make it more likely that he has games where he just doesn't do much in the yardage department.
The Chargers' Backfield
In the first game without J.K. Dobbins, the Chargers' backfield was a committee.
Gus Edwards led with a 52.2% snap rate but handled just 6 of 11 running-back carries. Kimani Vidal had four carries on a 26.1% snap rate.
Edwards did run 10 routes versus 5 for Vidal and 2 for Hassan Haskins, so Edwards was the clear top guy. He just wasn't anywhere near the role Dobbins had before his injury.
This makes Edwards the best desperation start in season-long, but he's nothing more than that. And Vidal's the guy with the best upside as they do seem to like him in passing situations. He's worth a stash as long as you have the bench space.
Noteworthy Fantasy Football Usage
Bucky Irving
We saw the Bucky Irving takeover begin last week. It kicked into full gear on Sunday.
He absolutely blew up with 152 rushing yards, nearly double his previous high. He added 33 yards through the air, giving him 185 yards from scrimmage. That was his second straight game topping 150 yards from scrimmage.
There were still some flaws. Rachaad White had 11 carries, and he ran 20 routes to Irving's 12. He's still in the mix, and he's playing well enough to remain there. But Irving's producing way too much to remain merely the 1A.
I'd expect Irving to continue to separate here due to how productive he has been. And in an offense as good as this one, that's worth a ton. I'd keep buying high on Irving, who has legitimate league-winning potential if he can eat more into White's workload.
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Isiah Pacheco
The Kansas City Chiefs eased Isiah Pacheco back in during his return, but it does seem like his role should expand quickly.
Pacheco played 32.8% of the snaps, second behind Kareem Hunt at 40.3%. However, Pacheco had 49 yards from scrimmage versus 15 for Hunt thanks to a 34-yard rush.
That's the reason for hope on Pacheco: efficiency. He's at +19 rushing yards over expected this year, per Next Gen Stats, while Hunt is at -85. The Chiefs need more out of their ground game, and Pacheco's the guy more likely to give it. I'd expect that snap rate to sniff the 60% range next time out.
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Nick Westbrook-Ikhine
I've been trying to ignore Nick Westbrook-Ikhine during the scoring binge that has seen him score eight touchdowns in eight games.
But the volume is finally starting to follow, so we might not be able to ignore him anymore.
Westbrook-Ikhine had a season-high eight targets Sunday. That pushes his target share since Will Levis' return to 19.6%, trailing only Calvin Ridley (25.0%). Westbrook-Ikhine now also has multiple deep targets in three straight.
He's not going to keep scoring at this clip. That's not realistic. But he's playing well enough to earn more targets, and that's the key thing that should push us his direction.
Westbrook-Ikhine is worth a roster slot if he's still available. He's also at least on the DFS radar in spots where you're willing to consider the Tennessee Titans' offense.
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The Panthers' Pass-Catchers
With Bryce Young stacking good games, the Carolina Panthers' target shares are suddenly of high import. And they're funneling work to just a handful of guys.
On Sunday, it was Adam Thielen leading the way with 10 targets for 99 yards and a touchdown. Here's the team's target shares in two games with Thielen back.
Past 2 Games | Overall Targets | Deep Targets | RZ Targets |
---|---|---|---|
David Moore | 25.7% | 38.9% | 26.3% |
Adam Thielen | 18.9% | 16.7% | 15.8% |
Xavier Legette | 18.9% | 22.2% | 15.8% |
Tommy Tremble | 13.5% | 5.6% | 10.5% |
Even though David Moore leads the way, I'd still be highest on Thielen and Xavier Legette. Moore is the guy at most risk of losing snaps once Jalen Coker returns, and we have a larger sample of relevance from the others.
Thielen is the preference in the short-term. He had three deep targets Sunday, and the production matters. He clearly still has some gas left in the tank.
Legette is well worth monitoring even though he's yet to top 66 receiving yards this year (and hasn't topped 56 with Young). He has had flashes, and you'd expect an upward trend with his draft pedigree. I'm fine viewing him as a hair below Thielen, which is high enough to be fantasy relevant with how Young's playing right now.
Additional Notes
- Chuba Hubbard still played 79.4% of the snaps Sunday, but Jonathon Brooks bears monitoring. His snap rate increased to 20.6% from 8.6%, and he handled 5 of 12 red-zone chances for the team versus just 1 for Hubbard. Hubbard also lost a killer fumble late, so we should downgrade expectations for him in the short-term while putting in speculative claims in leagues where Brooks was dropped.
- Jonnu Smith continues to soak up targets for the Miami Dolphins. He led with 11 on Thursday, pushing his target share to 21.5% since Tua Tagovailoa's return. It's the exact kind of usage you want for all formats, so we should ride him until he gives us a reason not to.
- DeAndre Hopkins' route rate bounced back up to 66.7% after declining each of the previous four games. He earned nine targets and drew a couple of pass-interference penalties, as well. I'm fine boosting him back up after the shaky route numbers had soured me on him a bit.
- Aidan O'Connell played well in his first game back from a thumb injury, throwing for 340 yards on 35 attempts. He's funneling work to Brock Bowers and Jakobi Meyers, so if O'Connell can muster even below average levels of efficiency (rather than flat-out bad), we'll be able to buy into both key pieces of the offense.
- Sincere McCormick ate into Ameer Abdullah's share of the Las Vegas Raiders' backfield. McCormick led the team with 12 carries, though Abdullah still played 61.5% of the snaps. I'd be off both once Alexander Mattison or Zamir White is back, but we should lower expectations on Abdullah if both continue to sit.
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