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Fantasy Football: Which Dolphins Running Back Should We Target in Drafts?

Annie Nader
Annie Nader@ANader33

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Fantasy Football: Which Dolphins Running Back Should We Target in Drafts?

If you were seeking fantasy football production in 2023, the Miami Dolphins and their running back room was a likely place to look.

Last season, the Dolphins notched 2,308 rushing yards (sixth-most), averaged 5.1 yards per rush attempt (most in the NFL), and brought in 27 touchdowns on the ground (tied for most).

The veteran Raheem Mostert and young gun De'Von Achane were the two big names to decide between as both finished third and fourth, respectively, in half--PPR scoring per game.

Miami selected Jaylen Wright in the fourth round of the 2024 NFL Draft and retained Jeff Wilson, the latter of whom moved to the tail-end of Miami's depth chart. Wright and Wilson probably won't draw much attention as fantasy football managers are concerned, but deciding between the Mostert and Achane of it all could be vital.

Let's check out each's outlook, average draft position (ADP), and projections for this season.

Miami Dolphins RBs Fantasy Football Outlook

De'Von Achane's Outlook

In Week 3 of the 2023 NFL season, the then-rookie Achane turned the heads of every fantasy football manager in town, totaling 233 yards and scoring a whopping 4 touchdowns in that infamous 70-20 Miami victory over the Denver Broncos.

Achane later went on to spend four weeks on the injured reserve, forcing him into the RB24 spot by the season's end, but the proof is in the pudding given what he did when active.

Through 11 games, Achane rushed for 800 yards and nabbed 197 yards on the receiving end, totaling 11 touchdowns. He finished with a historic 7.8 yards per carry via 103 attempts.

Achane was the 40-yard dash leader at his position in the 2023 NFL draft class and has since proven that he can serve as a gateway to the end zone from just about any part of the field.

According to FantasyPros' consensus half-PPR ADP, Achane holds an overall ADP of 21.0 -- and 8th at his position.

This is right in line with numberFire's projections, which have Achane logging the eighth-most points among running backs. They project Achane to achieve 1,124.68 yards and 9.1 touchdowns on the ground and 386.7 yards and 2.78 touchdowns in the air, all of which are based on a full 17-game season.

Raheem Mostert's Outlook

Mostert was a fantasy king last season, attaining the second-most fantasy points among running backs behind only Christian McCaffrey.

He capped off a career-best year with 1,187 total yards and a league-high 21 touchdowns (tied with CMC).

Achane's injury played some role in this sky-high production, but just how much did it factor into the result?

During Achane's four-game absence, Mostert owned a 55.5% red zone rush share and averaged 1.55 rush yards over expectation per carry (RYOE/C).

Alongside Achane, Mostert's red zone rush share fell to 50.0% and he netted 0.32 RYOE/C.

That red zone share is still pretty intriguing while Achane held a 33.8% share in this regard. Achane, of course, has a proven ability to score elsewhere, but will Mostert still be the guy at the goal line?

Right now, he's listed as RB1 on Miami's depth chart. The 32-year-old is due for negative regression while Achane could explode in his sophomore season, but their ADPs reflect that. Mostert has an 87.0 overall ADP, which is 27th at his position.

numberFire expects Mostert to draw back to an even larger degree. They predict him to record 700.29 yards and 5.65 touchdowns on the ground and 196.46 yards and 1.31 touchdowns in the air, good for the 32nd-most points at the position. It's important to keep in mind that these projections are based on a fully healthy 17-game season, and the durable veteran might have fewer injury concerns than the undersized Achane.

Which Dolphins RB is the Best Option?

Achane is as flashy as it gets, and the hype surrounding him couldn't be much higher. numberFire's projections and his ADP reflect that -- and each other.

His explosiveness and ability to rack up game-changing fantasy points on a mere play make him a super exciting fantasy prospect, but Mostert could end up as a bargain in drafts.

Miami's moves express some indication that they do not plan on handing a single one of their backs the lion's share of opportunities. Achane and Wilson were retained, Mostert was signed to a two-year contract extension in the offseason (albeit a light one), and they utilized a draft pick to select Wright.

The parity in this room could line up a bit closer to last year than early projections are indicating, which offers some potential upside with Mostert. Mostert's usage could be intriguing if Achane isn't handed a workhorse role.

FanDuel Sportsbook has Achane's total rushing line set at 777.5 yards while Mostert's is set at 650.5 yards. Achane to post over 7.5 rushing touchdowns is set at +124, and Mostert's line of 6.5 rushing touchdowns is set at -142 to the over.

Achane is a stud, and his ADP at the position lines up with projections. Mostert's age and usage carry more risk and uncertainty, but if you think he can maintain a somewhat similar role to last season -- especially that team-leading red zone rush share -- he is a viable candidate to add to your fantasy football running back room given how long he'll be on the board in drafts.


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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.

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