Fantasy Football: Which Cardinals Running Back Should You Target?

The Arizona Cardinals are coming off a sour 4-13 season but have higher hopes for the upcoming year, including a 7.5 win total.

Kyler Murray is healthy and will get to work with Marvin Harrison Jr., the fourth overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. He'll also have receivers Zay Jones and Michael Wilson at his disposal, so we could be looking at a fairly fantasy-relevant Arizona group.

But just how relevant is Arizona's backfield, and how should we approach their running back room in fantasy football drafts?

James Conner will return following a productive season, and Arizona selected Florida State's Trey Benson in the third round of the NFL draft. Benson was the second running back to be taken off the board in the 2024 class.

Let's check out their outlooks for the 2024-2025 NFL season.

Arizona Cardinals RBs Fantasy Football Outlook

James Conner's Outlook

Conner wasn't particularly high on people's boards last season, owning a 23.7 average draft position (ADP) among running backs and a 59.0 ADP overall, per FantasyPros' consensus ADP.

He rewarded his backers, totaling 1,205 yards and nine touchdowns through 13 games. These efforts were good for an RB18 ranking despite missing four games. He averaged the 10th-most points in half-PPR scoring per game.

This go-around, Conner finds himself in similar standing. He currently has a 23.7 ADP at the position, identical to last year, but an overall ADP of 81.0.

Among RBs, he's finished in the top 10 of half-PPR scoring per game for three straight seasons despite ranking outside the top 15 of ADP at the position in each of those years. The most notable occurrence came in 2021 when Conner finished as RB5 despite coming into the year with a 37.3 ADP at the position (and 96.0 overall).

Will Conner continue to outdo the public's perception?

Murray helps his relevance. Arizona's signal-caller was sidelined through Week 9 of 2023. In that span, Conner owned a 53.8% red zone rush share and logged 0.75 rush yards over expectation per carry (RYOE/C) on 13.6 carries per game. He also held a muted 6.6% target share and 27.3% red zone opportunity share.

But in eight games alongside Murray, Conner rocked a 62.2% red zone rush share and notched 1.14 RYOE/C on 17.5 attempts per game. He also held an 8.8% target share and a 41.9% red zone opportunity share.

Arizona's offense is bound for more efficiency with Murray healthy, and Conner will be a benefactor. With that said, there's more depth in Arizona's running back room with Benson coming in and Michael Carter and Emari Demercado remaining as periphery options.

numberFire's projections expect Conner to gain 919.43 yards and 7.03 touchdowns on 216.30 carries. They also have him slated to notch 174.44 yards and 0.98 touchdowns in the air. These projections are based on a full 17-game season.

With these projections, Conner is expected to come out as RB25 (and 70th overall), with an equal gap between RB20 and RB29.

FanDuel Sportsbook has Conner's rushing line set at 750.5 yards, and his rushing touchdown line set at 6.5 touchdowns. The market is factoring in missed time, so this doesn't mean we should sprint to side with the over on Conner's yards line. However, the market does seem to think he has higher scoring potential than numberFire's projections given that nF's are accounting for a full season.

Trey Benson's Outlook

Benson rushed for 906 yards and 14 touchdowns via 156 carries in his final collegiate season. He also had 20 receptions for 227 yards, making him an intriguing option in the receiving game.

As mentioned, he was the second running back to be selected in the 2024 NFL Draft (66th overall pick).

He currently has a 35.0 ADP at the position and 111.0 overall.

Last year, we saw two freshman running backs fare in the top 10 of half-PPR scoring, though both (Bijan Robinson and Jahmyr Gibbs) were top-12 overall draft selections.

Better comps from the 2023 draft class are Zach Charbonnet (52nd overall pick) and Tyjae Spears (81st). These two finished their rookie season as RB47 and RB35, respectively.

Benson's hype, particularly as a fantasy value, has people eager. Charbonnet (38.3 ADP) and Spears (57.0) were not as sought after in their rookie seasons.

Arizona could look to acclimate both Harrison Jr. and Benson at a quick pace, and Benson's ability to factor into the pass offense makes him a viable rookie dark horse.

However, numberFire's projections are not as bullish on Benson. They expect him to see 142.5 carries and 22.8 targets in a full 17-game season, resulting in an RB44 rank (and 145th overall).

Which Cardinals RB is the Best Option?

It's fair to buy into the hype surrounding Benson, but not at such a steep cost.

As mentioned, he holds a 35 ADP at the position and 111 ADP overall, but numberFire is expecting him to rank 44th and 145th in these respects.

Conner is the safer option and has historically had a lower-than-should-be stock in fantasy drafts.

Yes, he'll have more competition with Benson around and is entering his eighth season in the league, but other factors suggest that he is productive alongside Murray. Despite finishing 10th in half-PPR per game last season, Conner posted the lowest touchdown rate since his freshman campaign, in part due to Murray's absence.

His 23.7 ADP at the position and overall 81 ADP fall in line with numberFire stamping him as RB25 and 70th overall.

Take your sports betting to the next level with the FanDuel Parlay Hub! Explore a curated selection of popular parlays for trending games on FanDuel Sportsbook. Learn about today’s other offers at FanDuel Sportsbook Promos.

Looking for other NFL win totals or the latest NFL odds? Head over to FanDuel Sportsbook and check out all of the NFL betting options.

Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook and FanDuel Daily Fantasy today!

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.