Fantasy Football Usage Report for Week 9
Last week featured the long-awaited returns of Tua Tagovailoa and Puka Nacua, and both helped revive offenses for fantasy football.
In Week 9, that responsibility -- weirdly -- falls to Derek Carr, who is likely to return in time for a plum matchup against the Carolina Panthers.
Once again, we're forced to reset expectations for an offense that has been dysfunctional for the past month. We need more relevant offenses, and with Carr plus concentrated usage, we very much get that.
We'll touch on what this means for both Alvin Kamara and Chris Olave throughout the piece today while digging into other key offenses in flux entering Week 9.
All snap-rate and average depth of target (aDOT) data is via Next-Gen Stats unless noted otherwise. A "deep" target here is a target more than 15 yards beyond the line of scrimmage.
Fantasy Football Running Back Usage
With Kamara back on the rise and some mid-range backs gaining viability, running back is low-key loaded right now. Given what has happened with all the injuries at receiver, we should count our lucky stars and hope it sticks.
Below is the relevant workload for each back in action this week. Some players may have multiple splits depending on health of teammates, and the split referenced is noted in the far right-hand column.
Within the chart, "Adjusted Opportunities" is carries plus two times the player's target total as targets are worth twice as much as a carry for running backs in half-PPR scoring. The "RZ Share" is the percentage of team carries or targets the player has received inside the red zone. The players are sorted by their FanDuel salary on the Week 9 DFS main slate. Players who are not on the main slate are listed at the bottom, and those on bye are omitted.
The Dallas Cowboys were omitted as we don't know what their backfield will look like if we assume Rico Dowdle is active going forward. The Carolina Panthers were omitted with Jonathon Brooks seemingly trending toward a debut soon.
Key Takeaways
- Kamara had 110-plus yards from scrimmage in all four games Carr finished this year. He's obviously super banged-up right now, but he also went for 122 despite that in Week 8. Kamara should flirt with the top of the position again.
- De'Von Achane has hit 100 yards from scrimmage in both of Tua Tagovailoa's full games in large part due to his sick passing-game role. Achane's a firm buy in season-long, and he's still under-salaried at $7,800 in DFS for Week 9.
- The bigger value relative to salary, though, may be Aaron Jones. Jones is averaging 112.5 yards from scrimmage in his 6 full games to go with his 50.0% red-zone share. That's way too good of a role for someone whose salary is just $7,500 in a plus matchup with the Indianapolis Colts.
- It looks like Tyrone Tracy Jr. will miss Week 9 due to a concussion, but when he's back, it's bombs away. He played 67.3% of the snaps in Week 7 and added elite production in Week 8. He's a player on whom we want to buy high when he's healthy despite his poor offense.
Fantasy Football Wide Receiver and Tight End Usage
Marvin Harrison Jr. and Trey McBride
Things certainly looked improved for Marvin Harrison Jr. in Week 8 as he racked up 111 yards and a touchdown. His role is solid despite his inconsistency.
Trey McBride is worth highlighting, as well.
So far this year, McBride and Harrison have played six games together. McBride's target share in those six full games is truly elite.
6 Games Together | Overall Targets | Deep Targets | RZ Targets |
---|---|---|---|
Trey McBride | 27.6% | 15.8% | 27.8% |
Marvin Harrison Jr. | 24.1% | 50.0% | 16.7% |
Michael Wilson | 16.1% | 18.4% | 22.2% |
McBride went for 124 yards in Week 8, his best mark of the season. We won't always get enough yardage out of Kyler Murray to support multiple 100-yard days, but we got it Sunday.
The Arizona Cardinals have a tough matchup with the Chicago Bears on tap, but you can definitely consider both McBride and Harrison in all formats with this type of usage.
Davante Adams and Garrett Wilson
I'm still a bit concerned about Garrett Wilson's long-term expectations with Davante Adams in town. But at least through two games, Wilson is still getting fed.
Adams' 2 Games | Overall Targets | Deep Targets | RZ Targets |
---|---|---|---|
Garrett Wilson | 26.6% | 60.0% | 18.2% |
Davante Adams | 23.4% | 13.3% | 27.3% |
Breece Hall | 18.8% | 0.0% | 9.1% |
Tyler Conklin | 12.5% | 13.3% | 18.2% |
Aaron Rodgers -- despite the losses -- has actually posted above-average efficiency numbers across those games, as well. If we can get two players with a target share around 23% with acceptable efficiency, we'll be in a good place.
The New York Jets have disaster potential given their 2-6 record. But until we reach that point, we should remain decently optimistic about both Wilson and Adams as every-week starters in fantasy.
DeAndre Hopkins, Travis Kelce, and Xavier Worthy
In DeAndre Hopkins' debut, Patrick Mahomes had his best passing efficiency numbers of the season. It should raise our optimism around an offense that has lacked juice thus far.
Importantly, Hopkins didn't lower the workloads of Travis Kelce and Xavier Worthy. Both either tied or set new season-highs in targets.
Hopkins' targets will rise. But as you can see, the team still gave nine targets to -- in the words of Sharp Football's Rich Hribar -- ancillary jabronies. If they trim some of the fat there, Kelce and Worthy could still remain involved.
Worthy's deep role, specifically, has my attention. He has seven deep targets the past two games combined, pushing his season-long deep target share to 37.9%. Mahomes may not get to push the ball super often, but when he does, it's going to Worthy.
If Hopkins can make the offense more efficient, everybody wins, including Mahomes. This seems like a good time to buy low on the offense as a whole in fantasy.
Red-Zone Usage
Courtland Sutton
Courtland Sutton finally showed yardage upside Sunday, busting out for a season-high 100 yards. That's a plus. But we could also use a reminder of how good his red-zone role is.
In 2024 | Overall Targets | Deep Targets | RZ Targets |
---|---|---|---|
Courtland Sutton | 22.8% | 36.1% | 34.4% |
Sutton had two catches inside the red zone Sunday (one of which he fumbled inside the five-yard line) with no scores. He has just two touchdowns this year, but his usage says he could snag more going forward.
It's also worth noting that Bo Nix is starting to air it out a bit more. His two highest single-game aDOTs have come in the past three games, and he had a season-high 12 deep attempts on Sunday. Sutton could soon have two sources of upside, making him the one shining light for fantasy within this offense.
Chris Olave
In his first game without Rashid Shaheed, Chris Olave led the Saints with 14 overall targets, good for a 36.8% share. His yardage upside with Carr returning could be great.
That's on top of an already-nice role in the red zone.
In Olave's six full games, he has 33.3% of the Saints' red-zone targets. Three of those came Sunday, again illustrating the potential for his role without Shaheed.
The Saints' offensive line is getting healthier now that Cesar Ruiz is back, so the Saints are in the best shape they've been since Week 3. Given the plus matchup, we shouldn't be shocked if Olave blows up immediately in Carr's return to the lineup.
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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.