Fantasy Football: Travis Etienne's Inefficiencies Generate Concern

Thanks to his all-around ability out of the backfield, Travis Etienne garnered fantasy football attention before even took his first snap in the NFL. It took awhile for Etienne to deliver fantasy value, for he missed the entire 2021 season due to injury and then finished as RB17 compared to his average draft position (ADP) of RB18 in 2022, per FantasyPros.

The excellent value finally came in 2023 with Etienne finishing as RB3 in half-PPR leagues versus his RB10 ADP. He recorded a career-high 14 touchdowns while his receiving worked exploded, going from 45 targets in 2022 to 73 last season.

With that said, can Etienne maintain this climb as he enters his third season in 2024? His ADP is carrying similar expectations to 2024 as RB9. What's the verdict on Etienne's fantasy football value for the upcoming season?

Travis Etienne Fantasy Outlook

Heavy Workload Creates Rushing Value

Last season was largely a success due to Etienne's increases in touchdowns and receiving work. His rushing yards did not yield the same success, going from 1,125 yards in 2022 to 1,008 yards. Etienne's attempts were even up to 267 compared to 220 in 2022.

Despite totaling nearly 50 more carries last year, he still saw his rushing total go down. His rushing efficiency plummeted to 3.8 yards per carry versus 5.1 in the previous season.

A poor offensive line did him no favors, for it finished with the sixth-worst run block win rate last season. However, this was no different in 2022 as football's fourth-worst run-blocking team.

Etienne's 1.8 yards after contact per carry were already lacking in 2022, which only dropped even more last season (1.6). This will probably stay around the same ballpark as Jacksonville's offensive line was rated as the 10th-worst unit by Pro Football Focus (PFF) for 2024.

The poor blocking and inefficiencies were overshadowed by his work in the red zone. Etienne regularly found the end zone thanks to carrying a 55.7% red zone rushing attempt margin share. PlayerProfiler also had Etienne finishing 15th among his position for red zone touches.

Poor play from Tank Bigsby meant work kept coming Etienne's way no matter what. Bigsby recorded only 1.2 yards after contact per carry and 2.6 yards per attempt. The Auburn product was drafted as a potential short-yardage back, yet his red zone rushing attempt margin share was only 12.9%.

After totaling the fourth-most carries in the league last season, Etienne remains an asset on the ground due to sheer workload.

Efficiency Improves as a Receiver

Etienne was more efficient as a receiver in 2023, finishing with PFF's 13th-highest receiving grade among tailbacks with at least 25 targets.

Pretty much anywhere you look Etienne's pass-catching stats were quite good, such as finishing 9th in yards per reception while holding the 15th-most yards per route run as his position.

Similar to his rushing attempts, the receiving workload was through the roof. The Jaguars' back had the 7th-most targets, the 6th-most routes run, the 10th-highest route participation rate, and 14th-highest target share at his position.

Work as a receiver should always be there. Even if his counterpart -- Bigsby -- can improve in 2024, it's still highly unlikely that his receiving work gets impacted much. As a prospect, one of Bigsby's weaknesses was pass-catching.

Etienne consistently provides value as a receiver; Jacksonville will likely lean into this no matter what.

Poor pass blocking only hammers home this point even more. The Jags had the fourth-worst pass block win rate in 2023. Trevor Lawrence was well below average with a 2.2-second pocket time, a.k.a. the average time between snap and throwing ball or pressure.

Jacksonville often had to get the ball out fast, leading to Lawrence's 19th-place finish in adjusted yards per attempt. While he still managed to finish fifth in deep ball attempts, there were still plenty of short-yard targets to go around.

Etienne as a bailout target is a must-have in this offense due to the underwhelming offensive line.

The passing game is expressing the exact same agenda to get Etienne a good workload no matter what.

Travis Etienne Fantasy Projection

Before making our last call on Etienne's fantasy value, let's look at numberFire's season-long fantasy football projections.

His projected stats for 17 games are 273 carries, 1,161 rushing yards, 11 total touchdowns, 45 receptions, and 327 receiving yards. The usage is expected to be about the same at 18.7 touches per game compared to 19.1 in 2023.

The efficiency is a tad better at 4.3 yards per rushing attempt versus 3.8 from last year. His targets are down to 59 from 73, though.

Overall, the forecasted stats aren't too concerning, for numberFire has Etienne ranking as the ninth overall back, pointing to solid value for his RB9 ADP.

However, I can't overlook his concerning efficiency marks. It goes even deep as Etienne ranked 41st in expected points added per rush attempt, 152nd in overall EPA, 45th in success rate, and the 8th-highest tackled-for-loss percentage.

He was fortunate enough to have the fifth-highest light front carry rate, yet Etienne still posted deflating efficiency marks in the run game.

Bigsby's poor 2023 rookie season helped Etienne get his large workload no matter what. While Bigsby projects as RB53, the former second-day draft pick is known as a bruiser back. If he gets more opportunities, this will likely take away from Etienne's red zone touches, making touchdown regression a real problem.

According to FanDuel Sportsbook's NFL odds, Etienne has a rushing total prop of 900.5 yards and 7.5 rushing touchdowns. Keep in mind that numberFire's projections are assuming he plays 17 games; this doesn't mean that the projections are way off from the odds, which account for potential injuries. Still, FanDuel is expecting about a 100-rushing yard decline and three or four fewer touchdowns for Etienne in 2024.

While Etienne will likely have another big workload, this doesn't guarantee good fantasy value. There's a real shot that he sees his touchdowns slide in the upcoming season. If that's the case, Etienne's fantasy value will be in huge danger due to inefficiency.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.