Fantasy Football Stock Up/Stock Down: Week 5 Update

Fantasy football values are always evolving. Roles change, and new opportunities arise.

It's vital to keep tabs on new trends and usage in order to make optimal fantasy football decisions.

While I'm letting the data do the talking, there's naturally a lot of subjectivity here based on how I perceived players before (and after) this week's usage and news.

Effectively, whose value am I higher on, lower on, or about the same on after what I saw in Week 4?

(Stats via numberFire and NextGenStats unless otherwise noted.)

Arizona Cardinals

Stock Up: James Conner, Elijah Higgins
Stock Steady: Marvin Harrison Jr., Michael Wilson, Greg Dortch
Stock Down: Kyler Murray, Trey Benson

Kyler Murray is averaging 41.0 rushing yards per game but only 4.0 carries and 1.3 designed carries per game with minimal red zone rushing (a 5.0% red zone rushing share). Murray has finished as the QB12, QB1, QB18, and QB21. I think the arrow is down for now.

James Conner's Week 4 snap rate was only 56.9% overall but was a season-high 76.7% in the first half. He saw all 7 red zone snaps and totaled 113 scrimmage yards in a lopsided loss. Trey Benson did see 9 carries for 50 yards, but 8 of those carries and 44 of those yards came in the fourth quarter.

In a game without Trey McBride, Michael Wilson drew a 31.8% target share with Marvin Harrison Jr. at 27.3%, Greg Dortch at 18.2%, and Elijah Higgins at 13.6%. All ran at least 88.9% of the limited routes. Higgins didn't earn many targets per route (12.5%) but could have life at TE with how bad the position is -- if McBride misses more time.

Atlanta Falcons

Stock Up: Drake London, Tyler Allgeier
Stock Steady: Bijan Robinson, Darnell Mooney, Ray-Ray McCloud
Stock Down: Kirk Cousins, Kyle Pitts

Kirk Cousins has been fine: 7.3 yards per attempt with 4 touchdowns and 4 picks for an 83.5 QB Rating, but that's not enough to elevate everyone in this offense.

Drake London is starting to separate, at least. He had a 35.3% target share in Week 4 with a 12.8-yard aDOT. He now has single-game market shares of 24.1%, 33.3%, and 35.3% over the last three games.

Darnell Mooney remains an interesting WR2 (on his team, that is), and he has a 33.9% air yards share through Week 4, though Ray-Ray McCloud remains involved (19.0% air yards share and 19.5% target share).

That leaves Kyle Pitts on the outside looking in. Pitts has had a 13.3% target share for 3.8 targets and 26.3 yards per game.

In the backfield, Bijan Robinson's snap rate fell to 60.8% after rates of 90.0%, 74.1%, and 82.1% in three games prior. Tyler Allgeier has played his way into more snaps (41.2% in Week 4) and actually has a better rushing success rate (55.6%) than Robinson (43.6%) and a better Rushing EPA per carry output (+0.17 to -0.10), per numberFire.

Baltimore Ravens

Stock Up: Derrick Henry, Lamar Jackson
Stock Steady: Zay Flowers
Stock Down: Mark Andrews, Isaiah Likely

Derrick Henry and Lamar Jackson are running wild on the NFL right now, as Henry has averaged 159.7 scrimmage yards per game over his last three. Jackson has 308 yards on the ground (77.0 per game, easily a position-best). Henry has played 56.5% of the team's snaps in that span but also has a 24.4% route rate and 1.7 targets per game.

Zay Flowers has led the Ravens in route rate in every game, but his full-season rate (79.2%) is underwhelming, and his 6.8 targets per game (a 26.0% share) rank him outside the top-30 at the position. He's still the guy, though, in the offense.

Neither Mark Andrews (2.3 targets per game) nor Isaiah Likely (2.0) have better than a 10.9% target share or 48.7% route rate the last three weeks.

Buffalo Bills

Stock Up: Dalton Kincaid
Stock Steady: Josh Allen, James Cook, Khalil Shakir, Keon Coleman
Stock Down: None

I don't think we learned too much about the Bills from their blowout loss.

One of the most notable things I see is that James Cook played a season-high first-half snap rate (69.0%) after falling short of a 54.0% rate in each of his first three games, but it's pretty clear the team doesn't want to run him into the ground early in the season based on his first- and second-quarter usage thus far.

The other trend that is starting to jump out is that Dalton Kincaid's market shares have been strong (22.2%, 16.7%, and 25.9%) in three weeks since a slow Week 1 (8.7%). Since Week 2, Kincaid is sixth among TEs in target share (21.3%).

Keon Coleman did get some high-leverage looks in primetime but has been under a 15.0% target share in each of the last three games. Even on a per-route basis, he's not earning a lot of targets (11.3%) compared to Khalil Shakir (25.4%) in this split.

Carolina Panthers

Stock Up: Diontae Johnson, Chuba Hubbard, Xavier Legette
Stock Steady: Andy Dalton, Jonathan Mingo
Stock Down: Miles Sanders

Diontae Johnson has a 35.5% target share and 58.3% air yards share in two games with Andy Dalton under center. That works out to 13.5 targets and 142.0 air yards per game -- for 102.5 yards per game. The arrow couldn't be much higher for him.

Xavier Legette, though, has a 17.1% target share in this span with a solid 8.5-yard aDOT. He ran 36 routes, same as Johnson and Jonathan Mingo and earned 10 targets to Mingo's 5. Legette saw a 27.8% target-per-route rate this week, a near-elite mark.

Chuba Hubbard totaled 121 scrimmage yards and scored while playing a 72.9% snap rate, a season-high. Miles Sanders saw a 31.4% snap rate for a snap rate dip and a season-low mark.

Chicago Bears

Stock Up: D'Andre Swift
Stock Steady: DJ Moore, Keenan Allen, Rome Odunze
Stock Down: Caleb Williams, Roschon Johnson, Cole Kmet

We saw D'Andre Swift run for 93 yards and a score on 16 carries in a run-heavy, low-volume game. He also had a team-high in catches (7), targets (7), and receiving yards (72). Swift's 66.7% snap rate returned to where he was in Weeks 1 and 2 without Roschon Johnson. Johnson's snap rate was 33.3%, down from last week's promising 38.1% debut.

In Keenan Allen's return, DJ Moore saw an elevated target share (27.3%) but only ran a few more routes (26) than Rome Odunze (23) and Allen (22) for a good-not-great 23.1% target-per-route rate. I'm bordering on raising the stock in case he remains the clear WR1 in this offense, but I think the chance of a three-headed monster is still pretty high.

Odunze and Allen had relatively weak usage on a per-route basis, and the same can be said for last week's TE darling, Cole Kmet. With Allen back, Kmet's stock dips.

Cincinnati Bengals

Stock Up: Tee Higgins
Stock Steady: Ja'Marr Chase, Zack Moss, Chase Brown, Joe Burrow
Stock Down: Andrei Iosivas, Mike Gesicki

Tee Higgins returned last week and was pretty even with Andrei Iosivas but really broke out this week after getting ramped up. Higgins led the team with 10 targets (a 33.3% target share) and 103 air yards (58.1%).

Ja'Marr Chase scored on a long touchdown (again) but had a 20.0% target share in Week 4. That's actually just a tick below his season-best mark (20.7% in Week 1). His low single-game target shares are hard to ignore, yet the talent is still winning out.

Iosivas earned only 1 target on 25 routes. He was on the field a good bit but wasn't featured like he was last week with Higgins back.

Chase Brown scored twice, and Zack Moss scored once, but Moss did lead again in snaps (58.1% to 41.9%). With that said, Moss' snap rate in this game was a season low. It's possible Brown earned more snaps, but they're both roughly where they were for me entering the week.

Cleveland Browns

Stock Up: None
Stock Steady: Amari Cooper, Jerry Jeudy, Jerome Ford
Stock Down: Deshaun Watson

It's hard to be high on this offense while it's led by Deshaun Watson, who is averaging 4.9 yards per attempt.

Amari Cooper is getting as much volume as he can handle (a 26.4% target share and a 45.5% air yards share) but is plagued by a league-high number of drops for just 37.0 yards per game. Jerry Jeudy has respectable shares (21.4% target share and 35.2% air yards share) but is putting up just 49.3 yards per game. It's a better role than most probably realize.

Jerome Ford's snap rate was still up at 77.2%, his third game of the year with at least a 70.0% snap rate. He saw 7 targets for 27 yards and 10 of 14 RB carries for 58 yards. It remains his backfield for now.

Dallas Cowboys

Stock Up: Jake Ferguson, Hunter Luepke
Stock Steady: Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb, Rico Dowdle, Brandin Cooks, Jalen Tolbert
Stock Down: Ezekiel Elliott

Dak Prescott has been a top-12 fantasy QB in two straight weeks with much improved passing efficiency in that span. That two-week span coincides with the return of TE Jake Ferguson.

Ferguson has a team-high 24.0% target share in that split. He's averaging 72.0 yards per game and really stands out at the TE position with a 29.0% target-per-route rate since returning. That's an elite WR number.

The other target shares have been a little down with Ferguson back: 20.0% for Lamb, 13.3% for Cooks, and 10.7% for Tolbert. I don't want to downgrade Lamb yet because his per-route numbers are fine. Cooks and Tolbert round out the clear top-four route-runners.

Ezekiel Elliott's role dried up in Week 4, and Hunter Luepke led in first-half snap rate (56.0%) over Rico Dowdle (44.0%) and total route rate (46.4% to 35.7%).

Denver Broncos

Stock Up: None
Stock Steady: Javonte Williams, Courtland Sutton
Stock Down: Bo Nix

The Broncos won despite 60 yards from Bo Nix as a passer, and Nix ran just 5 times for 3 yards after showing some rushing ability earlier this season.

They still have a running back (Javonte Williams) and a wide receiver (Courtland Sutton) at the top of the pecking order -- but in a weak offense.

Williams has been roughly a 60.0% snap rate guy all year, and that was the case in Week 4.

Sutton has a 26.9% target share and 45.4% air yards share for 48.0 yards per game. There's a lot of empty air yards (118.0 air yards per game), so it could get better if Nix improves.

Detroit Lions

Stock Up: None
Stock Steady: Jahmyr Gibbs, Amon-Ra St. Brown, David Montgomery, Jameson Williams, Jared Goff, Sam LaPorta
Stock Down: None

This team is really good for fantasy, and the roles seem established.

Jahmyr Gibbs has had roughly a 55%/45% split over David Montgomery in the backfield in terms of snap rate, and Gibbs and Montgomery again remain viable with Gibbs the 1A in the backfield with a better red zone role (36.5% red zone opportunity share versus 26.9%).

Amon-Ra St. Brown drew a 31.6% target share in Week 4's low-volume game and has a 30.0% target share or better in three straight games. Jameson Williams' target share has dipped each week (32.1%, 21.2%, 13.6%, and 10.5%), but he ran every route in Week 4 and notched a 70-yard TD. He's still a viable WR3 due to the potential.

Sam LaPorta did see 4 targets in Week 4 for a season-high 21.1% target share, but his aDOT was -1.6 yards, and he has just one downfield target all season. He's still one of the better TE plays -- but I'm not bumping him up much after a four-target game.

Green Bay Packers

Stock Up: Dontayvion Wicks, Tucker Kraft
Stock Steady: Josh Jacobs, Romeo Doubs, Jayden Reed, Jordan Love, Emanuel Wilson
Stock Down: None

Jordan Love's return came with a huge reversal in passing volume (54 attempts, albeit in a comeback bid) from where the team was with Malik Willis under center.

Christian Watson's ankle injury helped Dontayvion Wicks and Tucker Kraft elevate their roles. Wicks broke out with 13 targets, 5 catches, 78 yards, and 2 touchdowns -- but was charged with 4 drops, via NGS. Kraft ran 44 routes -- trailing just Romeo Doubs' 49 and ahead of Wicks (43) and Jayden Reed (43).

Doubs and Reed, though, remained heavily involved, and prior route trends suggest they're the top two options in the offense.

Josh Jacobs' 60.8% snap rate was up from last week's 50.8% but down from a 69.8% rate through the first two weeks. Emanuel Wilson is playing the 40% role in the backfield now. Carries were split 9 for Jacobs and 8 for Wilson this week, though Jacobs was much more involved as a pass-catcher (23 routes, 6 targets) than Wilson (11 routes, 1 target). This feels the same as last week's learnings.

Houston Texans

Stock Up: Nico Collins, Stefon Diggs
Stock Steady: CJ Stroud, Dalton Schultz, Dare Ogunbowale
Stock Down: Cam Akers

Nico Collins is inevitable. He's had 117, 135, 86, and 151 yards on 8, 10, 10, and 15 targets to start the year.

Stefon Diggs saw a creative red zone play meant for a pass but ran it in for a score in a game without the usual WR rusher: Tank Dell. Diggs has has 21 targets the last two games with 81.5 receiving yards per game in that stretch.

Even without Dell, Dalton Schultz drew just 5 targets, and while his 34 yards were a season-high, it was still only 34 yards.

With Joe Mixon and Dameon Pierce nearing return, the Cam Akers era is probably over after he put up 74 yards on the ground through two games (22 carries).

Indianapolis Colts

Stock Up: Jonathan Taylor, Michael Pittman, Joe Flacco (if starting), Josh Downs
Stock Steady: Alec Pierce
Stock Down: Anthony Richardson

Jonathan Taylor keeps producing, and he now has 135, 135, and 108 scrimmage yards in the last three games, specifically adding 32, 25, and 20 receiving yards on 10 total targets in that stretch. Taylor with receiving work would vault him into overall RB1 territory with the current landscape.

Michael Pittman's target share has been great all year (it's 30.2% for the season with a 27.5% air yards share), but those 7.3 targets per game have led to 50.3 yards per game. He broke out in Week 4 (113 yards, the first game with over 36 all year), so hopefully the target shares lead to more volume as the Colts' offensive plays per game number grows (from a league-low through Week 3).

Josh Downs has a 30.4% target share in his two games with a low aDOT of 4.4 yards, but that's a great role.

Anthony Richardson's stock has to be down through four games. He left early in Week 4 due to a hip injury, and that could mean he runs less moving forward. Richardson already has rushed only 21 times this season -- though for 6.7 yards per carry and 141 yards total.

Jacksonville Jaguars

Stock Up: Christian Kirk, Brian Thomas
Stock Steady: Trevor Lawrence, Tank Bigsby, Brenton Strange, Gabe Davis
Stock Down: Travis Etienne

The passing volume in Jacksonville has shifted toward Christian Kirk (28.9% target share) and Brian Thomas (23.7%) over the last two weeks, and they're both averaging 4.5 downfield targets per game in this span. The red zone targets are all over the place in this offense, but they're separating over Gabe Davis in terms of usage, though Davis (75.9%) is still running roughly as many routes as Kirk (79.3%) and Thomas (74.7%) the last two games.

The RB situation here is strange, as Travis Etienne was on the field for the first play in Week 4 and left with a purported shoulder injury before returning to a mostly normal role. Tank Bigsby still played only a 37.5% first-half snap rate (same as Etienne), so while the arrow is down on Etienne, I don't think we can say Bigsby took over the backfield here.

Kansas City Chiefs

Stock Up: Travis Kelce, Xavier Worthy, Justin Watson, Kareem Hunt
Stock Steady: JuJu Smith-Schuster, Noah Gray, Samaje Perine
Stock Down: Patrick Mahomes, Carson Steele

A lot of adjustments need to be made here.

Rashee Rice is out indefinitely and is feared to have a torn ACL. Rice played just four snaps in Week 4.

With Rice out, the team's route leaders were Travis Kelce (91.2%), Xavier Worthy (79.4%), Justin Watson (67.6%), and JuJu Smith-Schuster (47.1%). Targets mostly flowed through Kelce (9; 32.1%). Nobody else had better than a 14.3% target share (4 targets), though those names were Noah Gray and Worthy.

Kelce and Worthy have the combination of already running routes and seeing targets. Watson and JuJu should see more routes, though neither earned many targets (3 for Watson and 0 for Smith-Schuster).

Isiah Pacheco's injury has opened up volume in the backfield. In Kareem Hunt's debut, he saw a 43.1% snap rate with Samaje Perine at 41.4%. Hunt handled 14 of 21 running back carries and 3 of 6 targets while leading the position in routes (11 to Perine's 10 and Steele's 4). This seems like a strong endorsement for Hunt in his first action with the team.

Las Vegas Raiders

Stock Up: Jakobi Meyers, Tre Tucker
Stock Steady: Brock Bowers, Zamir White
Stock Down: Gardner Minshew, Alexander Mattison

In a game without Davante Adams (who is a trade candidate), Jakobi Meyers drew a 41.7% target share (10 targets) while running every route, and Tre Tucker had 6 targets (25.0%) plus a carry on all but one route.

Brock Bowers was limited to 3 targets (12.5%) plus a carry on 19 routes (73.1%). He's still second among the TE position in yards per game (54.0), so I'm not going to overreact to a single low-volume game for the Raiders' passing attack.

Zamir White's snap rate climbed back up to 60.0% this week, and he saw 17 of 24 RB carries in a run-heavy script -- for just 50 yards. It's hard to dislike the snaps, but the efficiency has been poor from White all season.

Los Angeles Chargers

Stock Up: JK Dobbins
Stock Steady: Ladd McConkey, Quentin Johnston, Josh Palmer
Stock Down: Justin Herbert

JK Dobbins played a season-high 71.7% snap rate and saw 14 of 20 RB carries and 4 of 5 RB targets in Week 4. He's a pretty featured back in a run-heavy offense.

With Josh Palmer back, Palmer, Ladd McConkey, and Quentin Johnston all cleared an 80.0% route rate with targets favoring McConkey (7), Johnston (5), and then Palmer (4) with the air yards leader being Johnston. McConkey had two end zone targets and two downfield targets.

It's very possible this is a three-headed monster in a run-first offense.

Los Angeles Rams

Stock Up: Kyren Williams, Jordan Whittington, Colby Parkinson
Stock Steady: Tutu Atwell, Demarcus Robinson
Stock Down: Mathew Stafford, Tyler Johnson

Kyren Williams has played an 84.9% snap rate for the Rams and is the only back above an 80.0% full-season snap rate. He's also played 98.0% of the team's red zone snaps and has seen a carry or target on 61.7% of the team's red zone plays. Nobody else with multiple games is above 53.3%. He has the best RB role in football right now.

The pass-catchers here have at least one more week without Cooper Kupp (and Puka Nacua). It's a little messy, though.

Jordan Whittington did see his routes skyrocket from 37.9% in Week 3 to 100.0% in Week 4. Atwell (90.6%) and Robinson (87.5%) continued running a lot of routes with Tyler Johnson (12.5%) losing out. Colby Parkinson (78.1%) was involved and had a 24.1% target share for some life at TE here.

Miami Dolphins

Stock Up: None
Stock Steady: Jaylen Wright
Stock Down: Tyreek Hill, De'Von Achane, Jaylen Waddle

In Week 4 with Tyler Huntley under center, Miami struggled again, so the arrow is down on virtually everyone.

The exception for me is Jaylen Wright because -- while it's easy to view his Week 4 as a stock-up situation -- I'm not changing my opinion too much. Wright had a 34.6% first-half snap rate with De'Von Achane playing 76.9% of the first-half snaps. Wright looked effective but had only 32 scrimmage yards on 10 opportunities (Achane had 29 yards on 13 opportunities). Wright's role is still one based on potential, and Raheem Mostert's return would obfuscate things.

Tyreek Hill has no more than 40 yards or 7 targets in his last three games; Waddle's top marks are 41 and 6, respectively, in that stretch.

Minnesota Vikings

Stock Up: Sam Darnold, Justin Jefferson, Aaron Jones
Stock Steady: Jordan Addison
Stock Down: Jalen Nailor

Darnold has three straight top-10 QB weeks and is operating with elite passing efficiency after adjusting for opponents faced.

He's able to support Justin Jefferson, who has scored in every game and who has a robust 29.3% target share.

Jordan Addison did score twice in his return but drew only 4 targets on his 26 routes (a subpar 15.4% target-per-route rate). He did have a 20.0-yard aDOT and saw a carry to help, though. Only he (76.5%) and Jefferson (85.3%) ran more than 55.0% of the team's routes.

Aaron Jones' snap rate skied to a season-best 82.8% (his prior high was 61.1%) against his former team, and he's averaging 116.0 scrimmage yards with a majority of the team's red zone plays going his way. The arrow is way up on Jones for me.

New England Patriots

Stock Up: Ja'Lynn Polk
Stock Steady: Hunter Henry, Rhamondre Stevenson, Antonio Gibson, Demario Douglas, KJ Osborn
Stock Down: None

Ja'Lynn Polk's route rate jumped to 84.6%, his first mark better than 65.0% this season, and he drew 7 targets (21.9%), 4 of which were at least 10 yards downfield.

Nobody else had better than a 15.6% target share (Rhamondre Stevenson and KJ Osborn). Hunter Henry still had a 74.4% route rate but just 3 targets in a really tough matchup versus the 49ers.

Stevenson keeps fumbling but maintaining a 55%/35% snap share lead over Antonio Gibson.

New Orleans Saints

Stock Up: Alvin Kamara, Rashid Shaheed, Chris Olave
Stock Steady: Mason Tipton, Juwan Johnson
Stock Down: Derek Carr

Alvin Kamara's role is so good: a 69.5% snap rate with a 42.2% red zone opportunity share and 134.0 scrimmage yards per game.

Rashid Shaheed's target total reached 11 in Week 4 with 5 downfield targets, besting Chris Olave's marks of 10 and 3, respectively, while Olave played with a hamstring injury. Shaheed has become more than a downfield threat, and these two have a combined 50.0% target share on the year (25.5% for Shaheed and 24.5% for Olave).

Mason Tipton drew 1 target on 22 routes. You can like the routes, but we need to hold off until he earns targets.

With an injury to Taysom Hill (after he scored twice), Juwan Johnson ended with a 60.5% route rate and 3 targets.

New York Giants

Stock Up: Malik Nabers, Wan'Dale Robinson
Stock Steady: Devin Singletary, Daniel Jones
Stock Down: None

Daniel Jones' efficiency is league-average once adjusting for opponents, and he's rushing for 17.5 yards per game.

Malik Nabers did exit late in Week 4 but now has a 46.9% target share since Week 2 for 159.1 air yards and 106.7 receiving yards per game -- plus 1.0 touchdowns per game.

Wan'Dale Robinson still has a 27.1% target share in this split -- albeit with a 4.4-yard aDOT and just one downfield look in this span. It's a two-player passing offense.

Devin Singletary did play a season-low snap rate in Week 4, but it was 69.2%. He's seeing snaps and opportunities (14.0 carries and 2.8 targets per game) for 73.3 scrimmage yards but isn't a red zone threat (22.9% red zone play share). It's honestly not a bad role at all.

New York Jets

Stock Up: Tyler Conklin
Stock Steady: Braelon Allen, Breece Hall, Garrett Wilson, Allen Lazard, Aaron Rodgers
Stock Down: Mike Williams

The RBs here are the clear talking point. Breece Hall had 10 carries to Braelon Allen's 8. Hall saw 5 targets to Allen's 1. Snap rates were 71.4% for Hall and 34.3% for Allen, and Hall saw 3 of 4 red zone carries. This is still a great role for Breece. It just so happens that Braelon Allen is also really good on his limited opportunities.

The matchup was tough this week, but Garrett Wilson still drew 8 targets (a 19.5% share), the same as Allen Lazard. Mike Williams' targets (5; 12.2%) and routes (31; 60.8%) paled in comparison to theirs.

TE Tyler Conklin maintained an interesting target share (19.5%) and now has an 18.7% target share (7.0 per game) the last two weeks.

Philadelphia Eagles

Stock Up: Dallas Goedert
Stock Steady: Saquon Barkley, Jalen Hurts, Jahan Dotson, Parris Campbell
Stock Down: None

Jalen Hurts' ceiling is a little limited without AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith. He did run 8 times on Sunday for 20 yards and a score, though, to finish as the QB10 for the week.

Saquon Barkley was mostly bailed out by a long run but totaled 116 scrimmage yards on 14 opportunities. His 57.1% full-game snap rate looks worse than his 81.5% first-half snap rate. Barkley is fourth in first-half snap rate (81.4%) among healthy RBs.

The only pass-catcher with elevated target volume in Week 4 (without Brown and Smith) was TE Dallas Goedert, whose 8 targets were good for a 27.6% target share. He drew three total red zone and downfield targets for a great overall workload.

Jahan Dotson did run 34 routes (91.9%) but saw 4 targets for a very disappointing 11.8% target-per-route rate. Parris Campbell saw 4 targets on 28 routes (14.3%). Neither cracked 20 yards. Dotson had the better downfield work; Campbell caught his end zone target. There's not too much here.

Pittsburgh Steelers

Stock Up: Justin Fields, George Pickens, Pat Freiermuth
Stock Steady: Najee Harris
Stock Down: None

Justin Fields has been the QB12 and QB1 over the last two weeks and threw pretty effectively in a negative game script this week. He leads all QBs in red zone rushing share (45.8%).

George Pickens' talent is winning out in this offense. He saw 11 targets (a 34.4% target share) for 113 yards in Week 4. He also saw 5 red zone targets (a 71.4% share). Pickens' single-game target shares have been 31.8%, 22.2%, 22.6%, and 34.4%.

Pat Freiermuth's 7 targets this week were good for a 21.9% target share, and he had a red zone look with 2 downfield targets. He's fifth in target share (19.4%) among TEs with multiple games.

Even without Jaylen Warren, Najee Harris maintained a similar role from where he's been all year: a 69.1% snap rate (though just 41.9% in the first half) with 13 carries and 6 targets for 73 scrimmage yards. He had averaged 79.7 scrimmage yards and 21.3 opportunities leading in on a 55.0% snap rate.

San Francisco 49ers

Stock Up: Jordan Mason,
Stock Steady: Brock Purdy, George Kittle, Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, Jauan Jennings
Stock Down: None

While Jordan Mason technically played a season-low snap rate, it was still 73.3%. He's at 78.6% on the season (third-best among all RBs), and his 126.0 scrimmage yards per game are fourth-best.

As for everyone else, I think it's about back to baseline.

Brandon Aiyuk led in routes (83.3%) with Deebo Samuel (76.7%) and George Kittle (73.3%) following behind.

Jauan Jennings' routes scaling back (60.0%) to where they were before his Week 3 eruption. Target shares were dispersed (though Jennings led with 6 looks -- 23.1%).

Seattle Seahawks

Stock Up: Kenneth Walker, DK Metcalf, Geno Smith
Stock Steady: Tyler Lockett, Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Stock Down: Zach Charbonnet

Kenneth Walker returned to a great role in Week 4. He scored 3 times on 12 carries and added 4 catches on 5 targets for 116 scrimmage yards on a 60.3% snap rate.

Zach Charbonnet's featured back service didn't earn him much extra work, as his snap rate went back to 41.0%. He did get 5 targets (same as Walker), but Walker ran 30 routes to Charbonnet's 19.

Geno Smith has some strong EPA numbers once adjusting for opponent but really is thriving in terms of passing success rate, and he's adding 18.5 rushing yards per game.

It's easy to remain high on DK Metcalf (12 targets for 104 yards on an 85.5% route rate).

It's harder to figure out the other two WRs. We've now seen yo-yoing roles and production from Jaxon Smith-Njigba (single game market shares of 8.0%, 37.2%, 9.1%, and 22.6%) and Tyler Lockett (28.0%, 4.7%, 24.2%, and 17.0%).

I'd like to buy into JSN's 12-target game, but we've seen a Week 2 breakout followed up with a so-so Week 3 for him already, so I'm keeping the stock about the same for now.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Stock Up: Baker Mayfield, Mike Evans, Chris Godwin
Stock Steady: Bucky Irving, Cade Otton
Stock Down: Rachaad White

Baker Mayfield now has three top-five fantasy QB weeks despite a 9.9% sack rate and a 10.1% drop rate (second-highest in the NFL).

He's featuring Chris Godwin (26.6% target share) and Mike Evans (22.7%) on the season. Both are top-24 WRs this season with Godwin 7th and Evans 21st in half-PPR points per game. The market shares and leverage can sustain those marks.

Cade Otton has a 21.5% target share the last two weeks on an 81.1% route rate for one of the better TE roles in football.

Rachaad White's role dropped noticeably this week to a season-low 59.5% snap rate as Bucky Irving (season-best 40.5% snap rate) earned more work. It's easy to see the arrow is down on White, but until Irving starts flirting with a 50.0% snap rate or more, he's still a wait-and-see type of player for me in one of the league's few pass-heavy offenses.

Tennessee Titans

Stock Up: None
Stock Steady: Tony Pollard
Stock Down: Calvin Ridley, DeAndre Hopkins, Tyjae Spears, Mason Rudolph/Will Levis

The Titans are slow, run-heavy, and inefficient, which isn't ideal for fantasy production.

Tony Pollard has played roughly a 65.0% snap rate in every game and has an 80.0% red zone snap rate on the year. It's a good role in a subpar fantasy offense. Tyjae Spears has had a better rushing success rate (40.7% to 32.8%) but remains the spell back.

No pass-catcher is averaging more than 4.8 targets per game or 35.3 yards per game.

Washington Commanders

Stock Up: Jayden Daniels, Terry McLaurin
Stock Steady: Brian Robinson, Jeremy McNichols, Zach Ertz
Stock Down: None

Jayden Daniels is the leader in opponent-adjusted EPA per play among qualified QBs, and he's second at the position in rushing yards per game (54.5) as well as third in red zone rushing market share (38.7%). He has legitimate QB1 upside.

Brian Robinson's role was more or less what it usually is even with Austin Ekeler out, as Jeremy McNichols had an elevated workload. Robinson played 64.2% of the snaps (after 57.1%, 59.4%, and 75.4% leading in). He's the lead back in this elite offense even if he doesn't morph into a true feature back sans-Ekeler.

McNichols was effective and scored twice but had only 8 of 29 RB carries and 1 of 4 RB targets.

Since a modest Week 1 (16.7% target share), Terry McLaurin has had single-game shares of 27.6%, 27.3%, and 33.3%. In that three-week split, McLaurin ranks 11th among WRs in target share (29.6%) and 2nd in air yards share (56.1%).

Zach Ertz led the team in route rate (70.3%) but had only 3 targets. He is averaging 4.0 targets per game yet is 11th in yards per game (37.5) among all TEs.

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