4 Best Bets and Predictions for NFL Week 17

At a certain point in the NFL season, we can transition from betting on certain teams to betting against others.

Whether it's due to a rash of injuries, the team getting a look at younger players, or anything else, some teams just really struggle down the stretch. And if we can identify teams that may continue to struggle, we can boost our views of the opposition.

I think we get that with one team in Week 17, creating value on the other side.

Let's begin there, laying out a spread I like in FanDuel Sportsbook's NFL betting odds. Then we'll dive into some other spots where I see value this week.

NFL Week 17 Betting Picks

Dolphins at Browns

Dolphins -6.5 (-114)

Laying 6.5 points on the road is difficult. It's tougher when it's a warm-weather team playing in Cleveland in December.

Those concerns are alleviated by the current state of the Cleveland Browns' offense, pushing me to back the Miami Dolphins.

The Browns will start Dorian Thompson-Robinson for the second straight game. Across 74 drop backs this year, Thompson-Robinson has averaged -0.57 Passing Net Expected Points (NEP, numberFire's EPA metric) per drop back. Not only is that a downgrade from Jameis Winston (-0.03), but it's also a far cry behind even Deshaun Watson (-0.19).

Thompson-Robinson has had at least 20 pass attempts 5 times in his NFL career. Here are the Browns' point totals in those: 3, 13, 12, 14, and 6. That 14-point outburst came when Winston relieved Thompson-Robinson late and scored a garbage-time touchdown.

The Dolphins have, for the most part, been efficient since Tua Tagovailoa's return, and the weather forecast looks fine right now. I've got them favored by 9.3 points here, allowing me to lay the 6.5 despite the factors mentioned above.

Broncos at Bengals

Total Under 49.5 (-108)

These two teams have been over machines in 2024. The Denver Broncos' games have gone over in 9 of 15 games while the Cincinnati Bengals' have done so 10 times.

To me, it feels like those rates have pushed this total higher than it should be.

Part of that sentiment stems from the Broncos' defense. Despite some slip-ups recently, they're still first in numberFire's schedule-adjusted defensive rankings.

Some of those recent struggles have been due to the injury to cornerback Riley Moss, who has missed the past 3.5 games. Moss practiced in full on both Tuesday and Wednesday, putting him on track to return Saturday.

In Moss and Patrick Surtain II, the Broncos have one of the better cornerback duos in the league. They're better equipped to prevent an explosion out of Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins than most.

The Broncos' offense is still a smidge below average, as well, sitting 20th overall through Week 16. When you combine this all together, my model has the total at 45.2, putting me on the under.

Cardinals at Rams

Total Over 47.5 (-110)

With how well the Los Angeles Rams' offense is playing, I'm more than happy to bet the over here in a critical NFC West matchup.

We now have a nine-game sample on them since Puka Nacua's return. In that span, Matthew Stafford has averaged 0.27 Passing NEP per drop back. If that were his full-season mark, it'd rank fourth in the league behind just Lamar Jackson, Jared Goff, and Josh Allen. It's an MVP-level mark.

That offense will now go up against an Arizona Cardinals defense that ranks 29th overall by numberFire's metrics, including 25th against the pass.

The Cardinals' offense will be without both starting tackles, and the backfield is banged up. Thus, I'd understand if you wanted to go with the Rams' team total instead. That's not a low number, though, sitting at 27.5 with the over at -106, pushing me to take the full-game over, which gives me multiple paths to cashing.

Falcons at Commanders

Commanders -4.5 (-105)

This week's Sunday night game between the Washington Commanders and Atlanta Falcons sets up to be a dandy. It's Jayden Daniels against Michael Penix Jr. after Penix looked solid in his debut.

Give me Daniels in this one.

That's mostly due to enthusiasm about the Commanders' offense. They're numberFire's fourth-ranked unit thus far -- sixth through the air -- facing a Falcons defense that is 27th against the pass. It's the first time since Week 9 the Commanders have faced a pass defense ranked outside the top 20.

The setup for Penix will be much tougher this week than it was for his debut. He'll be outdoors as a 4.5-point underdog, and it's unlikely his defense gifts him a pair of scores this time around.

My model has the Commanders favored by 6.5 points. Teams in that range have covered a 4.5-point spread 59.5% of the time (across an 84-game sample), clear of the current 51.2% implied odds. I agree with the model that the Commanders are the proper side here.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.