Fantasy Football Start/Sit: Week 9

Congratualtions -- you survived the Week 8 bye-pocalypse.

Your reward? Another four teams on bye in Week 9, though we're down only one top-10 offense by numberFire's schedule-adjusted metrics.

This week offers more options than last, particularly with nine of Week 9's 14 games showing at least a 45-point total on FanDuel Sportsbook. Even so, more fantasy options can be a double-edged sword when deciding who to slot into your starting lineup.

Thankfully, FanDuel Research's fantasy football projections serve as a solid baseline for deciding who to slot into your starting lineup. But when we pair those projections with some recent historical data, even further lines can be drawn. From there, factors like game environment, strength of opponent, and the latest news can help shape our start/sit decisions.

Below, you'll find every fantasy-relevant player, sorted by position and bucketed into tiers. These tiers are meant to reflect your typical 12-team, half-PPR scoring formats with only one starting quarterback -- though the general rankings can be loosely applied to most formats. Any player not listed can be assumed sit-worthy in most leagues.

Here is the Week 9 fantasy football start/sit.

All betting references refer to the NFL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. All statistics via NFL Next Gen Stats unless otherwise stated.

Fantasy Football Start/Sit: Week 9

Quarterback

Start

Matthew Stafford (LAR)
Matthew Stafford comes out of the bye averaging the 10th-most fantasy points (19.5) among quarterbacks and has cleared 25 fantasy points in three of his last four appearances. Granted, his touchdown rate is an unsustainable 8.2% dating back to Week 4, but Stafford also leads the league in air yards (353.7 per game) while ranking fifth in Success Rate (51.3%). Perhaps most impressively, only two of those four games came with star receiver Puka Nacua healthy. Nacua is expected back this week, so we should feel confident slotting Stafford into starting lineups with LA ranking top five in adjusted pace and pass rate over expectation. This being a home date against New Orleans -- the sixth-best quarterback matchup by fantasy points per dropback allowed -- is just icing on the cake.

Jared Goff (DET)
Jared Goff has quietly been pretty rough in fantasy this season. Despite ranking top 10 in EPA per dropback, Success Rate, and completion percentage over expected, Goff enters Week 9 as the QB17 in fantasy points per game (17.2). He's finished as a top-12 quarterback only once -- though that came via a 34-point, QB1 showing in Week 2. Even so, Goff has played just three games indoors -- where he notoriously thrives -- and he's largely been held back by a lack of volume (one game with 30 pass attempts). It's fair to question how much he needs to air it out in a game Detroit is favored by 8.5 points, but that hasn't stopped opposing quarterbacks from torching the Vikings secondary. Despite facing the lowest pass rate in football, Minnesota has been the sixth-best quarterback matchup by Brandon Gdula's player-level adjusted fantasy points allowed. Coming out of the bye, Goff has a rock-solid floor at home against the Vikings.

Sit

Bo Nix (DEN)
Bo Nix is coming off his best two-game stretch of the year. He scored 40 (!) fantasy points in Week 7, followed by a 24.8-point outing last time out. That makes him difficult to sit ahead of Week 9's road clash with Houston, but it's a move that could pay off for fantasy managers with capable bench options. For one, much of Nix's production has been carried by touchdowns; he ran for two touchdowns in Week 7 before tossing four scores in Week 8. Denver scored 33 and 44 points in those two -- their two highest-scoring games of the season. But the Broncos only have a 19-point implied total this week against the Texans -- a bottom-five quarterback matchup by adjusted fantasy points allowed. Houston has the leagues best scoring defense by a significant margin, and they're the top overall defense in football by numberFire's schedule-adjusted metrics. Add in Nix's eye-popping home/road splits (25.1 fantasy points per game at home; 16.5 on the road), and this is an easy spot to fade the sophomore quarterback.

Kyler Murray (ARI)
Kyler Murray appears likely to return this week after missing Arizona's previous two games. On paper, this is a great spot against the Cowboys -- numberFire's 32nd-ranked defense and one allowing the most fantasy points per dropback. That's backed up by a stellar 20.9-point projection here at FanDuel Research, third among quarterbacks this week. Even so, I can't get there with Murray. He's topped out at 18.3 fantasy points this season despite every previous matchup coming against a bottom-half secondary. Among 31 quarterbacks with 150 dropbacks, Murray ranks 25th in air yards (194.8 per game), 30th in average depth of target (6.0), and 23rd in Success Rate. It's fair to speculate his mid-foot sprain could impact his rushing, further lowering his fantasy floor. Even in the single-best quarterback matchup, it's impossible to trust Murray in fantasy. There's a wide range of outcomes here, but he's someone I'd rather leave on the bench until we see more downfield passing volume.

Running Back

Start

Tyrone Tracy (NYG)
With Cam Skattebo out for the season, Tyrone Tracy Jr. immediately vaults into RB2 territory. Now, Tracy has one top-24 finish splitting time with Skattebo this season, but last year gives us a pretty good indication what the workload could be moving forward. In 12 games Tracy played at least 50% of snaps, he averaged 21.4 adjusted opportunities (carries plus 2x targets), 81.9 scrimmage yards, and 12.3 fantasy points per game. He saw 36.5% of New York's red zone opportunities in those games -- right in line with the 36% share that propelled Skattebo to 7 total touchdowns this season. In a better offensive environment, Tracy should only improve on last year's fantasy marks as a starter. He gets a solid matchup right off the bat as the 49ers rank just 14th in adjusted run defense and have surrendered the fourth-highest target rate to opposing running backs.

Rico Dowdle (CAR)
Rico Dowdle's fantasy production has fallen off a cliff in the two games since Chuba Hubbard returned. After totaling 62.8 fantasy points in Weeks 5 and 6, Dowdle has managed just 15.5 fantasy points the past two weeks. But that's through no fault of Rico's; he's still managed a 44% Rushing Success Rate over the past two weeks (23.1% for Hubbard) and averaged 75 scrimmage yards on 14.5 adjusted opportunities per game (44.5 yards on 17 adjusted opportunities for Hubbard). However, Carolina appears to have recognized Dowdle's superiority, and that should give fantasy managers incentive to start him in Week 9. Even in a tough matchup (at Green Bay), Dowdle's proven efficiency should have him on the RB2 radar assuming he's closer to 20 adjusted opportunities.

Sit

Alvin Kamara (NO)
A season-ending injury to backup Kendre Miller didn't lead to a much better fantasy outing for Alvin Kamara, with the vet totaling just 5.5 fantasy points while picking up an injury himself in Week 8. With last week's dud, Kamara has now failed to crack double-digit fantasy points in five of his last six games -- a stretch in which he's averaged just 19 adjusted opportunities and posted an ugly 34% Success Rate on the ground. Kamara doesn't appear to be at risk of missing Sunday's road date with the Rams, but it's still hard to get excited about his fantasy prospects. LA ranks a respectable 13th in adjusted run defense on the year, and they've held opposing running backs to the fewest fantasy points per adjusted opportunity in the league. They're the single-worst running back matchup by adjusted fantasy allowed, and New Orleans entering as Week 9's biggest underdog (+14.5) won't do the former fantasy superstar any favors in the volume department. Kamara is a pretty easy sit in most formats.

Jacory Croskey-Merritt (WAS)
We can't necessarily blame Jacory Croskey-Merritt for his fantasy struggles. By and large, the rookie has performed well in his role this season. He's been a top-20 rusher based on PFF rushing grades while ranking in the top 10 in Success Rate and yards over expected per attempt among backs with at least 50 carries. Even so, he's finished as a top-24 running back just twice and has finished with fewer than 6.0 fantasy points in three consecutive games. That's primarily due to a lackluster red zone role and a near-nonexistent pass catching role. In six games since Austin Ekeler went down, Bill has seen just 26% of Washington's red zone rush attempts while averaging a mere 1.5 targets per game. So, even with Croskey-Merritt pacing this backfield in snaps (50% since Ekeler's injury), he's still missing out on the high-value touches we need in fantasy football. A home date with Seattle doesn't offer much room for optimism, for the Seahawks boast numberFire's No. 2 run defense and have let up the second-lowest explosive run rate (10+ yards; 3.7%) to opposing running backs. He remains a nice stash for the home stretch but belongs on fantasy benches until we see a steadier floor.

Wide Receiver

Start

Travis Hunter (JAC)
I'm a firm believer the post-bye rookie bump, especially for a prospect of Travis Hunter's caliber. Now, Hunter did next-to-nothing over his first six games, averaging just 3.3 receptions, 32.8 receiving yards, and 5.0 fantasy points on a 15.1% target share. But Hunter broke out in garbage time in Jacksonville's final week before the bye, securing 8 of 14 targets for 101 yards, a touchdown, and 20.1 fantasy points. Quietly, his route participation soared the past two games -- up to 86% in Weeks 6 and 7 after hovering at 62% the first five weeks. That should give us plenty of optimism for Hunter coming out of the bye, and he has a ripe matchup to produce in Week 9. Not only are the Jags indoors this week, they're up against a Raiders secondary which ranks 25th in adjusted pass defense and is bottom 10 in fantasy points per target, target rate, and yards per route run allowed to opposing wide receivers. We saw the upside Hunter brings in Week 7, and this week's matchup offers a terrific opportunity for him to continue producing.

Xavier Worthy (KC)
Xavier Worthy has had a tough go of late, finishing outside the top 40 wide receivers in three of his last four games. Two of those duds came in the two games Rashee Rice has been back, and Rice's 28.8% target share is tough to ignore when evaluating Worthy. Even so, Patrick Mahomes is playing some of the best football of his career right now, and there should be enough volume to support multiple fantasy-relevant pass catchers when KC faces a more normal game script. Worthy actually leads the Chiefs in route rate (73%) since Rice's return, and he's seen a quarter of the Chiefs' downfield pass attempts. That should lead to bigger performances when KC gets pushed -- something that's expected to happen in a road date with Buffalo. The Bills have been a top-10 fantasy matchup by adjusted fantasy points allowed, and they've given up the eighth-highest target rate to wide receivers. In one of Week 9's premier game environments, Xavier Worthy has enough upside to warrant starting him as a WR3 or flex.

Sit

Quentin Johnston (LAC)
After a red-hot start to the year, Quentin Johnston has cooled off over the past few games. He was the WR64 in Week 5, missed Week 6 with an injury, WR29 in Week 7, and WR121 (with zero fantasy points) in Week 8. There's still established upside with Johnston in this offense, but the Ladd McConkey ramping up and Oronde Gadsen's emergence have relegated the third-year X receiver back into boom-or-bust territory in fantasy. This week's matchup isn't one to fear at face value; I just worry about a downtick in passing volume with the Chargers favored by double digits. The Titans have been a top-5 wide receiver matchup by adjusted fantasy points allowed, but they've also faced a bottom-10 pass rate on the year. Fewer pass attempts mean fewer opportunities for Johnston to hit on those deep shots, making him a risky fantasy option in Week 9.

Cooper Kupp (SEA)
Cooper Kupp continues to run a route on more than 80% of dropbacks for the Seahawks, and that's an obvious plus with Seattle ranking eighth in adjusted passing offense. But this is an offense that ranks bottom 10 in pass rate over expectation and has fed fellow WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba a league-leading 38.3% target share. That doesn't leave many looks up for grabs for the rest of this offense -- something Kupp has experienced firsthand. He's seen fewer than four targets in four of seven games this season, keeping him to single-digit fantasy points in all but two games on the year. Washington has been a plus matchup for receivers, but Kupp's inconsistent role in this offense doesn't offer much of a floor. Having topped out at 12.5 fantasy points this season, there isn't enough upside to justify inserting him into your starting lineup.

Tight End

Start

Dalton Kincaid (BUF)
Fantasy managers who started Dalton Kincaid last week likely wished the third-year tight end would've sat out another week. Despite Buffalo coming out of a Week 7 bye, Kincaid played just 13 snaps after missing Week 6 due to injury. Naturally, he's a risky fantasy option this week, but I see reason for optimism. For one, Kincaid still managed a 48% route rate as 12 of his 13 offensive snaps came when Buffalo dropped back to pass. He saw a target on a quarter of those routes -- something that's been consistent all season. Buffalo just didn't need their prized tight end in a game they led 19-3 at the half. They're unlikely to have such a big lead this week against Kansas City, so we should see more Kincaid. He's still averaging a robust 2.72 yards per route run on the season, and he's been a consistent force in fantasy when active. In Kincaid's three games clearing a 50% snap rate, he's finished as the TE2, TE3, and TE8 with at least 12 fantasy points in all three games. In one of Week 9's best game environments, Kincaid needs to be started.

Theo Johnson (NYG)
Theo Johnson has oh-so-quietly emerged as a reliable target in this New York offense in the wake of Malik Nabers' injury. Over the past five games, Johnson ranks second on the team with a 19.3% target share, and he leads the team with a 29.4% red zone target share. He's not a true downfield threat but has still averaged 1.8 downfield targets (10+ yards) per game during this stretch. That combination of volume, red zone looks, and downfield work makes him an intriguing fantasy option ahead of this week's showdown with the 49ers.

Sit

Hunter Henry (NE)
Hunter Henry has been one of the primary beneficiaries of Drake Maye's elite play this season as he enters Week 9 as the TE12 in fantasy points per game. But Henry's hit a bit of a lull as Maye's shifted focus to his perimeter receivers, dipping to TE25 over the past four weeks. His target share has sunk to 13.1% during that stretch -- a tough look ahead of one of his most difficult matchups of the season. Even with last week's disaster, the Atlanta Falcons rank sixth in adjusted pass defense on the year. They've been the seventh-worst fantasy matchup for tight ends by adjusted fantasy points allowed, permitting the second-lowest target rate and fewest yards per route run to the position. With a handful of capable tight end waiver wire targets for Week 9, Henry's someone to leave on your bench this time out.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.