4 Best NFL Player Prop Bets for Week 16

At this point in the year, most of our attention goes to teams in the thick of the playoff hunt.

This makes sense, given the stakes. And from a prop perspective, we can expect those teams to largely keep things status quo, which provides us with peace of mind.

But at least for me this week, most of the value in the prop market comes on teams playing out the string. With still three weeks left, I don't expect them to fully pack it in just yet, allowing me to still buy in for the time being.

Utilizing our NFL projections as a guide, here are some NFL player props that look appealing for this week.

All NFL odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook and may change after this article is published.

NFL Prop Picks for Week 16

Tyrone Tracy Over 69.5 Rushing Plus Receiving Yards (-115)

I do not know why, but for whatever reason, the market seems absurdly low on Tyrone Tracy Jr. Even if the market's aversion makes me second guess some things, I still want to buy in.

We have a six-game sample on the New York Giants without Cam Skattebo. In those games, Tracy is averaging 84.5 yards from scrimmage per game and has gone over this mark 4 times. That includes last week where he had 97 yards from scrimmage and played a season-high 76.1% of the snaps.

The Minnesota Vikings are a team you can run on as they enter Week 16 ranked 18th against the rush by numberFire's metrics. Given Tracy's dual-threat abilities, I have a hard time passing him up as the market continues to be skeptical of his talents.

Rico Dowdle Under 58.5 Rushing Yards (-114)

Two key factors put me on this under for Rico Dowdle.

First, Chuba Hubbard is eating into Dowdle's workload. Dowdle's snap rate has been back under 60% the past two weeks, a mark it hadn't hit since Week 8.

Second, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are a tough team to run on. They rank sixth against the run, according to numberFire's metrics, and opponents react accordingly. The Bucs have faced a pass on early downs 57.0% of the time, well above the league average of 52.5%.

Due to both Hubbard's role and some spotty effectiveness, Dowdle has gone under 58.5 yards in five straight games and six of eight overall since Hubbard's return. I have a hard time envisioning a return to form in such a difficult matchup.

Chase Brown Over 76.5 Rushing Plus Receiving Yards (-114)

I understand why sportsbooks keep making Chase Brown's markets muted. With Samaje Perine back, Brown's role does take a significant hit.

Still, he has been effective enough to consistently clear this mark recently, so I'm willing to buy the over despite Perine's presence.

In three games since Perine's return, Brown has averaged 13.3 carries and 6.0 targets per game. That latter number is up from 3.0 per game prior to Perine's injury. Brown played well enough while Perine was out to earn more work in the passing game. This has helped Brown go over 76.5 rushing plus receiving yards in 2 of those 3 games.

This week, the Cincinnati Bengals will face the Miami Dolphins, who have let up a whopping 1.40 yards per route run to opposing backs (the league average is 1.11). They're also 27th in explosive run rate allowed to backs (adjusted for schedule), so Brown could get it done on the ground, too.

It all adds up to another plus spot for Brown. I'm willing to keep going to the well even with Perine a healthy factor in this offense.

Jacoby Brissett to Throw for 300-Plus Passing Yards (+280)

Jacoby Brissett's baseline prop is 249.5 passing yards, a mark he has exceeded in all but one of his starts this year (when he landed on exactly 249). That's pushing me to swing for the fences, instead dabbling in the alt markets as the Arizona Cardinals face the Atlanta Falcons.

This production hasn't all come in garbage time, either. Since Brissett took over, the Cardinals have a 61.8% early-down, first-half pass rate, way above the league average mark of 53.3%. They're letting him rip it, and he's producing.

It also seems possible Brissett will have Marvin Harrison Jr. back in this one, a luxury he has had for just four full games thus far. As well as Trey McBride and Michael Wilson have played, it can't hurt to add another toy to the mix.

The Falcons' defense hasn't been as dominant recently as it was in the beginning of the year, and they now rank a modest 12th against the pass in numberFire's metrics. With seemingly all of the Cardinals' running backs hurt, I'm fully on board with more insane production from Brissett and this passing game.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.