Fantasy Football Start/Sit: Week 15
Well, we made it.
The fantasy playoffs are here.
Take a second to pat yourself on the back -- but not more than a single second. Though you've taken yourself out of contention for last place, we're hunting championships out here. And those aren't won over the 14 weeks of the regular season.
No, most standard leagues reserve 'ships for the final three (or four) weeks. That makes this the most important week of the year for start/sit decisions... at least until next week.
But don't you sweat. That's what this piece is here for, listing out every fantasy-relevant player, sorted by position and bucketed into tiers with the higher-tiered players deemed more startworthy. For specific start/sit advice between two players in the same tier, refer to our NFL projections, which come via numberFire.
These tiers are meant to reflect your typical 12-team, half-PPR scoring formats with only one starting quarterback -- though the general rankings can be loosely applied to most formats. Here's a quick breakdown of the tiers:
- Tier 1: Lineup Locks
- Players you aren't thinking twice about.
- Tier 2: Solid Starts
- Players you start with confidence.
- Tier 3: Flex Plays
- Players you start but with less confidence.
- Tier 4: Streamers
- Players that work in a pinch.
- Tier 5: Sit if Possible
- Players you're only starting as a last resort.
Any player not listed can be assumed sit-worthy in most leagues.
All betting references refer to the NFL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. All statistics via NFL Next Gen Stats and Pro Football Focus unless otherwise stated.
Fantasy Football Start or Sit: Week 15
Quarterback
Here are the FanDuel Research Week 15 Fantasy Football quarterback projections as well as each player's NFL DFS salary on FanDuel, followed the Week 15 quarterback tiers.
Tier 1: Lineup Locks
Josh Allen (BUF) @ DET
Lamar Jackson (BAL) @ NYG
Jayden Daniels (WSH) @ NO
Joe Burrow (CIN) @ TEN
Brock Purdy (SF) vs. LAR
Jalen Hurts (PHI) vs. PIT
Tier 2: Solid Starts
Sam Darnold (MIN) vs. CHI
Kyler Murray (ARI) vs. NE
C.J. Stroud (HOU) vs. MIA
Baker Mayfield (TB) @ LAC
Tua Tagovailoa (MIA) @ HOU
Bo Nix (DEN) vs. IND
If you're having reservations about starting Nix in the first round of the fantasy playoffs -- don't. Granted, he put up an uninspiring 14.2 fantasy points the last time we saw him before Denver's bye, but he still threw for 294 despite the Broncos scoring twice on defense. Nix has finished as a top-12 quarterback in six of his last nine games, and that's a range we can reasonably project this week against Indianapolis, numberFire's 20th-ranked adjusted pass defense and one that's allowed the 12th-most fantasy points to quarterbacks.
Tier 3: Flex Plays
Patrick Mahomes (KC) @ CLE
Jared Goff (DET) vs. BUF
Justin Herbert (LAC) vs. TB
Jordan Love (GB) @ SEA
Anthony Richardson (IND) @ DEN
Drake Maye (NE) @ ARI
Caleb Williams (CHI) @ MIN
Matthew Stafford (LAR) @ SF
Jameis Winston (CLE) vs. KC
Though last week fell short of Jameis' 36-point effort in Week 13, Winston still racked up enough counting stats in garbage time to clock in 17.3 fantasy points, good for QB12 on the week. That was his fourth top-12 finish in six starts and the fifth time he's cleared 40 pass attempts, making him a true consideration for your playoff lineup in a plus matchup. Kansas City is just 24th in adjusted pass defense and has allowed the 11th-most fantasy points to the position. The Browns are 4.5-point underdogs, too, so we could see Cleveland air it out in a negative game script.
Tier 4: Streamers
Geno Smith (SEA) vs. GB
Will Levis (TEN) vs. CIN
Aaron Rodgers (NYJ) @ JAC
Surely, you have a better option than Aaron Rodgers this week. But if you're still streaming the position this late into the year, he's lined up well for Week 15. Rodgers is coming off a season-high 339 passing yards against Miami's league-average pass defense, and he now takes on a Jacksonville secondary which ranks dead-last in adjusted pass defense and 31st in fantasy points allowed to running backs. At the very least, Rodgers' floor feels safe even if his upside is lacking.
Tier 5: Sit if Possible
Kirk Cousins (ATL) @ LV
Russell Wilson (PIT) @ PHI
Running Back
Here are the FanDuel Research Week 15 Fantasy Football running back projections as well as each player's NFL DFS salary on FanDuel, followed the Week 15 running back tiers.
Tier 1: Lineup Locks
Joe Mixon (HOU) vs. MIA
Bijan Robinson (ATL) @ LV
Derrick Henry (BAL) @ NYG
Saquon Barkley (PHI) vs. PIT
Josh Jacobs (GB) @ SEA
James Conner (ARI) vs. NE
Chase Brown (CIN) @ TEN
Chuba Hubbard (CAR) vs. DAL
De'Von Achane (MIA) @ HOU
Tier 2: Solid Starts
Tony Pollard (TEN) vs. CIN
Alvin Kamara (NO) vs. WSH
Jonathan Taylor (IND) @ DEN
Jahmyr Gibbs (DET) vs. BUF
Kyren Williams (LAR) @ SF
Rico Dowdle (DAL) @ CAR
Aaron Jones (MIN) vs. CHI
David Montgomery (DET) vs. BUF
Brian Robinson (WSH) @ NO
Zach Charbonnet (SEA) vs. GB
Isaac Guerendo (SF) vs. LAR
Tier 3: Flex Plays
James Cook (BUF) @ DET
D'Andre Swift (CHI) @ MIN
Isiah Pacheco (KC) @ CLE
Rachaad White (TB) @ LAC
Rhamondre Stevenson (NE) @ ARI
Najee Harris (PIT) @ PHI
Braelon Allen (NYJ) @ JAC
Isaiah Davis (NYJ) @ JAC
Assuming Breece Hall (knee) sits again, both Braelon Allen and Isaiah Davis are flex considerations in Week 15. With Hall sidelined last week, the two rookies split New York's running back work practically 50/50, with Davis seeing 22 adjusted opportunities (carries plus 2x targets) to Allens' 21. Davis did out-snap Allen 9-4 in the red zone and see 1 more target than Allen, though the bruiser was more effective, netting 81 yards to Davis's 67. With Jacksonville allowing the second-most fantasy points to running backs, I'm comfortable rolling the dice with either one.
Tier 4: Streamers
Tank Bigsby (JAC) vs. NYJ
Travis Etienne (JAC) vs. NYJ
Tyrone Tracy Jr. (NYG) vs. BAL
Gus Edwards (LAC) vs. TB
Jerome Ford (CLE) vs. KC
Jaylen Warren (PIT) @ PHI
Patrick Taylor (SF) vs. LAR
Sean Tucker (TB) @ LAC
Tyjae Spears (TEN) vs. CIN
Sincere McCormick (LV) vs. ATL
McCormick's snap rate has risen each of the three week's he's suited up for the Raiders, up to a season-high 59.4% last week. That didn't seem to impact his production as McCormick finished with 89 scrimmage yards on 21 adjusted opportunities. He'd likely see his volume drop if Alexander Mattison is active, but McCormick's in a nice spot even if he plays given the recent positive coachspeak from Antonio Pierce. He'll be the top back against a Falcons defense held opposing backs in check but is middle of the pack in adjusted run defense.
Tier 5: Sit if Possible
Alexander Mattison (LV) vs. ATL
Jaleel McLaughlin (DEN) vs. IND
Javonte Williams (DEN) vs. IND
Kimani Vidal (LAC) vs. TB
Kendre Miller (NO) vs. WSH
Nick Chubb (CLE) vs. KC
Aside from a two-touchdown outburst in Week 12, Chubb has finished outside the top-20 running backs in all seven active weeks. He's totaled just four targets over the last four games, so we're really relying on rushing efficiency or touchdowns in fantasy. That feels unlikely against a KC defense that's allowed the fewest fantasy points and lowest rushing success rate to running backs.
Wide Receivers
Here are the FanDuel Research Week 15 Fantasy Football wide receiver projections as well as each player's NFL DFS salary on FanDuel, followed the Week 15 wide receiver tiers.
Tier 1: Lineup Locks
Ja'Marr Chase (CIN) @ TEN
Puka Nacua (LAR) @ SF
Justin Jefferson (MIN) vs. CHI
Amon-Ra St. Brown (DET) vs. BUF
Nico Collins (HOU) vs. MIA
Tee Higgins (CIN) @ TEN
Davante Adams (NYJ) @ JAC
Mike Evans (TB) @ LAC
Tyreek Hill (MIA) @ HOU
Tier 2: Solid Starts
Jauan Jennings (SF) vs. LAR
Drake London (ATL) @ LV
Cooper Kupp (LAR) @ SF
Courtland Sutton (DEN) vs. IND
CeeDee Lamb (DAL) @ CAR
Jakobi Meyers (LV) vs. ATL
Jordan Addison (MIN) vs. CHI
A.J. Brown (PHI) vs. PIT
D.K. Metcalf (SEA) vs. GB
Ladd McConkey (LAC) vs. TB
Jaxon Smith-Njigba (SEA) vs. GB
Garrett Wilson (NYJ) @ JAC
Terry McLaurin (WSH) @ NO
Jerry Jeudy (CLE) vs. KC
Tier 3: Flex Plays
Malik Nabers (NYG) vs. BAL
Zay Flowers (BAL) @ NYG
Khalil Shakir (BUF) @ DET
Calvin Ridley (TEN) vs. CIN
D.J. Moore (CHI) @ MIN
Jameson Williams (DET) vs. BUF
Marvin Harrison Jr. (ARI) vs. NE
Brian Thomas Jr. (JAC) vs. NYJ
DeVonta Smith (PHI) vs. PIT
Darnell Mooney (ATL) @ LV
Jaylen Waddle (MIA) @ HOU
Amari Cooper (BUF) @ DET
Adam Thielen (CAR) vs. DAL
Deebo Samuel (SF) vs. LAR
Samuel has had a rough season, especially of late. He's finished outside the top-50 receivers over the last four games, during which he ranks third on the Niners in target share (19.8%). That's not ideal, but it's still better than the WR84 fantasy total he's put up over that span. Deebo is a top buy-low wide receiver this week against a Rams team that's 28th in adjusted pass defense -- one he's torched for 102 yards per game dating back to 2020.
Tier 4: Streamers
Christian Watson (GB) @ SEA
Tank Dell (HOU) vs. MIA
Jayden Reed (GB) @ SEA
DeAndre Hopkins (KC) @ CLE
Josh Downs (IND) @ DEN
Keon Coleman (BUF) @ DET
Xavier Worthy (KC) @ CLE
Quentin Johnston (LAC) vs. TB
Keenan Allen (CHI) @ MIN
Rome Odunze (CHI) @ MIN
Lost in Chicago's no-show at San Francisco last week was a breakout game from Odunze. The rookie first-round pick caught the second and third touchdowns of his career, finishing with his second-highest fantasy output (18.2 points) of the season. Allen, meanwhile, saw his fewest targets (5) in over a month with Chicago only attempting 23 passes -- though he cleared a 20% target share for the seventh straight game. I'd expect a lot more volume indoors against the Vikings this week after Chicago threw 47 times for 340 yards against them in Week 12. Minnesota's allowed the most receiving yards to wide receivers this season, making both Odunze and Allen viable streamers.
Tier 5: Sit if Possible
Ray-Ray McCloud (ATL) @ LV
Noah Brown (WSH) @ NO
Michael Pittman Jr. (IND) @ DEN
The Colts visit Denver after both sides were off in Week 14, though that doesn't bode especially well for the Indy passing attack. The Broncos are second in adjusted pass defense and have permitted the third-fewest fantasy points per target to wide receivers. With Josh Downs in line to practice this week, Pittman won't see the necessary volume to warrant starting him against such a strong secondary.
Tight Ends
Here are the FanDuel Research Week 15 Fantasy Football tight end projections as well as each player's NFL DFS salary on FanDuel, followed the Week 15 tight end tiers.
Tier 1: Lineup Locks
Brock Bowers (LV) vs. ATL
Trey McBride (ARI) vs. NE
George Kittle (SF) vs. GB
Travis Kelce (KC) @ CLE
David Njoku (CLE) vs. KC
Tier 2: Solid Starts
T.J. Hockenson (MIN) vs. CHI
Sam LaPorta (DET) vs. BUF
Jonnu Smith (MIA) @ HOU
Evan Engram (JAC) vs. NYJ
Tucker Kraft (GB) @ SEA
Tier 3: Flex Plays
Hunter Henry (NE) @ ARI
Cade Otton (TB) @ LAC
Zach Ertz (WSH) @ NO
Dalton Kincaid (BUF) @ DET
Mark Andrews (BAL) @ NYG
Jake Ferguson (DAL) @ CAR
Pat Freiermuth (PIT) @ PHI
Juwan Johnson (NO) vs. WSH
Dalton Schultz (HOU) vs. MIA
Schultz had easily his best game of the year last week, corralling 5 of 7 targets for 61 yards and a touchdown. That was the second time in three weeks Schultz saw seven targets, giving him some positive momentum ahead of a sneaky-strong matchup against Miami. Though they're closer to league average in fantasy points allowed to tight ends, the 'Fins have given up the highest target rate to the position -- and the second lowest to wide receivers. He's a capable streamer if you're in trouble.
Tier 4: Streamers
Isaiah Likely (BAL) @ NYG
Stone Smartt (LAC) vs. TB
Michael Mayer (LV) vs. ATL
Mayer had what can only be described as a breakout game in Week 14. The former No. 35 overall pick set season-highs for snap rate (80%), receptions (7), and yards (68) en route to a TE8 finish (10.3 fantasy points). He was second on the team in targets (9) -- two of which were downfield (10+ yards) and one in the red zone. That's some intriguing utilization, especially for a player with his draft pedigree. He's more of a stash rather than someone I'd feel comfortable deploying this week -- though Atlanta is down to 31st in adjusted pass defense.
Tier 5: Sit if Possible
Noah Fant (SEA) vs. LAR
Mike Gesicki (CIN) @ TEN
Cole Kmet (CHI) @ MIN
Kyle Pitts (ATL) @ LV
The good news is that Pitts saw six targets last week. The bad news is that he only caught one of those, and it only went for 14 yards. Pitts has now finished with one or fewer receptions in four of his last five games -- a trend that feels likely to continue as the fourth (or fifth) option with Kirk Cousins struggling. He's an easy sit with your season on the line.
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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.