Fantasy Football Start/Sit: Week 15

Aidan Cotter•AidanCotterFD

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For the select few of you who still need start/sit advice this late into the season -- congratulations!

You made it to the fantasy football playoffs.

This is where hard work (or dumb luck) truly shines.

That being said, while making the postseason is nice, nobody gets a trophy for qualifying for the playoffs.

No, we're in the business of winning fantasy leagues. But how do you do that?

Simple: make savvy waiver wire additions when needed and nail your start/sit decisions. This piece should cover the latter.

Every week I list out every fantasy-relevant player, sorted by position and bucketed into tiers with the higher-tiered players deemed more startworthy. For specific start/sit advice between two players in the same tier, refer to numberFire's projection model.

These tiers are meant to reflect your typical 12-team, half-PPR scoring formats with only one starting quarterback -- though the general rankings can be loosely applied to most formats.

Any player not listed can be assumed sit-worthy in most leagues.

All betting references refer to the NFL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. All statistics via NFL Next Gen Stats and Pro Football Focus unless otherwise stated.

Fantasy Football Start or Sit: Week 15

Quarterback

Tier 1: Locks

Tier 2: Starters

Matthew Stafford (LAR) -- Matthew Stafford has scored between 23 and 25 fantasy points (FP) in three consecutive games. He's thrown 10 passing touchdowns over that span after totaling just nine in his previous nine games combined. Stafford is clicking at the perfect time to face a Commanders D allowing the most adjusted fantasy points per dropback to opposing quarterbacks. He's an easy QB1 with LA boasting the second-highest implied team total (27.5) of the week.

Jordan Love (GB) -- Jordan Love took a step back last week, finishing with his fewest FP (9.9) and second-fewest yards (218) since their Week 6 bye. Although he snapped a four-game streak of top-12 finishes, there's room for optimism in Week 15. Not only has Tampa Bay given up the third-highest EPA per dropback and fourth-most yards per attempt on the season, but they just let Desmond Ridder torch them for 347 yards and 26.4 FP. Continue to start him with confidence.

Sam Howell (WSH) -- Sam Howell has finished as a top-12 quarterback in eight of his last nine games. Although the Rams have a formidable secondary, Washington's third-ranked pass rate over expectation should give Howell a ton of volume considering they're 6.5-point underdogs. Bear in mind, however, that he's rushed for four touchdowns in his last three games. Still, this game has the second-highest total (49.5) of the week, so Howell remains a quality start.

Trevor Lawrence (JAX) -- Despite posting the second-lowest yards per attempt and throwing three interceptions last week, Trevor Lawrence managed to extend his streak of 20-plus FP to four games... while playing on a sprained ankle against one of the best defenses in the NFL. The matchup doesn't get any easier this week -- Baltimore is second in adjusted fantasy points per dropback -- but T-Law's upside is still too high to leave on your bench.

Russell Wilson (DEN) -- A model of consistency, Russell Wilson has averaged 17.0 FP per game since their Week 9 bye. Playing at the NFL's second-lowest adjusted pace caps his upside, but there could be more volume headed his way this week as a 4.5-point underdog in Detroit. The Lions are bottom-five in adjusted yards per attempt (AY/A), adjusted fantasy points per dropback, and EPA per dropback allowed to QBs. Russ boasts a stellar floor/ceiling combination this week.

Tier 3: On the Fence

Justin Fields (CHI) -- Justin Fields has registered at least 12 rush attempts in all three games since returning from injury after failing to do so once prior. He's turned in a pair of top-10 finishes over that span and is fresh off a 24.7-point effort. That said, we have to downgrade him this week given the matchup. A road date against Cleveland's second-ranked pass defense doesn't bode well for his arm, but his rekindled rushing prowess at least gives him a nice floor.

Tua Tagovailoa (MIA) -- I'm not excited about Tua Tagovailoa this week. He's finished with fewer than 13 FP in three of his last five games -- one of which came against his opponent this week, the Jets. New York has given up the fewest adjusted fantasy points per dropback to QBs, and it doesn't help that Tyreek Hill got banged up last week. Tua has only one home game with fewer than 18 FP this season, but it came last week in a (seemingly) soft matchup. He's hard to trust.

Jared Goff (DET) -- I get that Jared Goff is coming off his worst fantasy performance of the season and has finished as a top-12 QB just twice in the last five weeks, but he's not a bad streaming candidate. He's at home -- where he averages 19.8 FP per game -- against a Broncos D that's given up the third-most adjusted fantasy points per dropback. They've been better of late, but Detroit's 26-point implied team total gives him a nice floor.

Tier 4: Sit

Kyler Murray (ARI) -- Kyler Murray has completed just 60.8% of his passes since debuting and is coming off a season-low 11.8 FP. Murray's legs help his floor, and there's some garbage time potential here, but the matchup is brutal. The 49ers have given up the third-fewest adjusted fantasy points per dropback to QBs. Consequently, numberFire projects Murray for just 13.6 FP, 20th among quarterbacks. I'd avoid him if possible.

C.J. Stroud (HOU) -- It remains to be seen whether C.J. Stroud even plays this week after entering concussion protocol, but it's hard to get excited about him either way. Stroud has lost his top two pass catchers the last two weeks and now has to face a Titans defense that just locked up a potent Miami offense. There's too much risk to start him with your season on the line.

Desmond Ridder (ATL) -- Please don't chase Desmond Ridder's season-best performance last week. It came at home against one of the worst secondaries in the NFL. This week, Ridder takes on a Panthers defense that's been decent against the pass but ranks dead-last in numberFire's scheduled-adjusted rush defense metrics. Considering Atlanta's league-worst pass rate over expectation, Ridder may not attempt 25 passes. He's an easy sit.

Running Back

Tier 1: Locks

Tier 2: Starters

D'Andre Swift (PHI) -- It's been a rough few weeks for D'Andre Swift. After finishing as a top-25 running back for nine consecutive weeks, Swift has now finished outside the top-25 in three straight games. Backup Kenneth Gainwell has out-snapped Swift the last two weeks, but Swift still averaged 14.5 adjusted opportunities over that stretch -- enough volume to warrant starting him against a Seahawks D that's allowed the third-most adjusted fantasy points per carry to opposing RBs.

Ezekiel Elliot (NE) -- Ezekiel Elliott turned back the clock last week, finishing as the weekly RB1 for the first time since early 2021. He earned an absurd 38 adjusted opportunities in doing so, pacing the Patriots with a 30.8% target share. That kind of volume simply has to be in your starting lineup, especially against a Chiefs defense that ranks 28th in numberFire's schedule-adjusted rush defense. Even if they fall behind early, Zeke's receiving work is too strong to sit.

Jerome Ford (CLE) -- Although Jerome Ford got banged up last week, post-game X-rays were negative. He hasn't offered much of a ceiling, but Ford's scored at least 9.9 FP in eight of his last nine games. While Chicago ranks second in scheduled-adjusted rush D, they're middle of the pack in adjusted fantasy points allowed. He's quietly garnered nine targets in Joe Flacco's two starts and should offer low-end RB2 value yet again in Week 15.

Chuba Hubbard (CAR) -- If volume is king, Chuba Hubbard is an emperor. Over his last three games, Hubbard has averaged 25.3 adjusted opportunities, 97.3 scrimmage yards, and 3.3 red zone rush attempts per game. He's the RB8 in half-PPR over that span. Atlanta is a brutal matchup -- they allow the fewest adjusted fantasy points per carry -- but Hubbard's role is strong enough to warrant another start.

Devin Singletary (HOU) -- The Texans went back to Devin Singletary last week, feeding him 19 adjusted opportunities and 56% of snaps. His touchdown upside likely takes a hit with all of Houston's passing game injuries, but he'll likely flirt with 20 opportunities regardless of who's under center. Although Tennesee ranks sixth in adjusted fantasy points allowed to RBs, they've surrendered double-digit FP to opposing backs in five of their last seven games, so his floor is solid.

Josh Jacobs (LV) -- Josh Jacobs's status is up in the air after departing last week's game early, but he was listed as DNP on Monday -- a bad sign for a Thursday game. If he manages to suit up, he deserves to be in lineups. The Chargers are middle of the pack against the run, and, before last week, Jacobs had finished as a top-24 RB in eight of his previous 10 games. Backup Zamir White would be a decent pivot if Jacobs can't go, but he has only 20 carries on the season.

Najee Harris (PIT) -- Najee Harris was a nonfactor last week, totaling just 6.3 FP against New England's top-ranked rush defense. He's now been held to single-digit points in three of his last four games, but there's reason for optimism in Week 15. Indianapolis has allowed the fourth-most adjusted fantasy points per carry, and they just gave up a pair of RB1 performances to Cincinnati's Joe Mixon and Chase Brown. Harris profiles as a quality flex or low-end RB2.

Jaylen Warren (PIT) -- Since Pittsburgh fired Matt Canada, Jaylen Warren has yet to eclipse 6.0 FP, so I understand the hesitation with starting him. That said, he's still averaged 17 adjusted opportunities and commanded an 11.7% target share over the last three games. The Bengals' running backs totaled 126 receiving yards last week, and Indy ranks 26th in adjusted fantasy points per target to RBs on the season, paving the way for a bounceback effort for Warren.

Ty Chandler (MIN) -- If Alexander Mattison is unable to go, Ty Chandler would be an intriguing start. Chandler played a season-high 56.3% of snaps and saw 18 adjusted opportunities last week but managed just 5.7 FP. The matchup is better this week, however, as the Bengals rank 31st in schedule-adjusted rush defense. You'll have to wait on Mattison's status, but Chandler profiles as a solid flex if he's the starter.

Tier 3: On the Fence

A.J. Dillon (GB) -- There's a chance Aaron Jones returns, but even if A.J. Dillon is the starter, it's hard to get too excited about him. Despite seeing 20.8 adjusted opportunities per game over the last four weeks, Dillon has been held to single-digit FP. Granted, he's provided a stable floor of 8.1-9.6 FP, but an ugly 34.4% success rate and 3.2 yards per carry have capped his upside. Tampa is fourth in schedule-adjusted rush defense, so Dillon is nothing more than a desperation flex in Week 15.

Tyjae Spears (TEN) -- Although he's coming off his second-best fantasy performance of the season, this week's game script doesn't appear to bode well for Tyjae Spears. The rookie got most of his production through the air last week, securing six of eight targets (22.2% share) for 89 receiving yards in a comeback effort. Tennesee is a 2.5-point home favorite this week, so there's a degree of risk in starting him given the projected positive game script.

D'Onta Foreman (CHI) -- D'Onta Foreman led the way with a 56.1% snap share and 17 adjusted opportunities last week, so he appears to be the top back in Chicago. That said, I'm not sure there's much upside with him against a Cleveland front that's seventh in schedule-adjusted rush defense. The Bears have a 17-point implied team total, so it's best to leave Foreman on the bench unless you're desperate.

Clyde Edwards-Helaire (KC) -- Clyde Edwards-Helaire saw 19 adjusted opportunities last week but managed just 68 scrimmage yards and failed to capitalize on his lone red zone rush attempt. While there's some upside if Isiah Pacheco is unable to go considering KC is a 9.5-point favorite, the Patriots are numberFire's top-ranked rush defense, and they've given up the second-fewest adjusted fantasy points per carry.

Jerick McKinnon (KC) -- Like Clyde, Jerick McKinnon has a brutal matchup this week. However, McKinnon is the RB I'd want to start from this backfield. He notoriously dominated down the stretch last season and played just two fewer snaps than Edwards-Helaire after missing the previous two weeks. Although he saw only three targets, he ran more routes than Clyde and scored on his red zone rush attempt.

Chase Brown (CIN) -- Chase Brown has really flashed the last two weeks, racking up 166 total yards off 20 opportunities. Still, while his snap share doubled last week (from 15.3% to 29.8%), he isn't on the field enough to trust him in starting lineups against a Vikings defense giving up the fourth-fewest adjusted fantasy points per carry.

Antonio Gibson (WSH) -- With Brian Robinson banged up, Antonio Gibson is interesting given his receiving work in a potentially negative game script. Gibson tied for a team-high 22.7% target share the last time Washington took the field, and they're 6.5-point road favorites this week. That said, the Rams have given up the sixth-fewest adjusted fantasy points per target to opposing RBs, so he's at best a low-end RB2 if Robinson misses again.

Keaton Mitchell (BAL) -- Although the Ravens have yet to fully unleash Keaton Mitchell, he's led the Baltimore backfield in snap rate (39%), adjusted opportunities (12), and yards per game (64) over the last three weeks. He's proven capable of delivering in fantasy on limited opportunities, but Baltimore's committee approach limits him to a dart-throw flex option in Week 15.

Tier 4: Sit

Kenneth Walker (SEA) -- Kenneth Walker III managed 7.4 FP in his return to action last week, but it's clear that Zach Charbonnet isn't going away anytime soon. Although it was encouraging to see him lead the way with a 58.2% snap rate and five targets, Philly ranks fifth in adjusted fantasy points per carry and first in adjusted fantasy points per RB target. He has some touchdown upside, but the line (Seattle +3.5) hints at a pass-heavy approach for the Seahawks.

Gus Edwards (BAL) -- Gus Edwards may be the most touchdown-dependent fantasy option in the league. Gus hasn't eclipsed 6.0 FP in any game he hasn't scored -- a bad omen for someone who hasn't gotten a red zone rush attempt since Week 11. With his snap rate dwindling to 26% in the last two games, Edwards shouldn't be in starting lineups until further notice.

Kareem Hunt (CLE) -- Kareem Hunt is essentially Gus Edwards-lite. While a touchdown salvaged his day last week, Hunt hasn't eclipsed double-digit points since Week 8, and he continues to play less than 40% of snaps. The Bears have been one of the better defenses in the league of late, limiting his touchdown upside and relegating Hunt to the bench.

Wide Receivers

Tier 1: Locks

Tier 2: Probable Starters

Keenan Allen (LAC) -- Keenan Allen (heel) takes a huge hit with Justin Herbert out for the year, but I'd still be hard-pressed to outright sit him as long as he's active. He recorded 6 receptions for 68 yards with Easton Stick under center last week, commanding a 37.5% target share on his throws. Allen's status is up in the air on a short week, and the Raiders are top 10 in adjusted fantasy points allowed to WRs, but that kind of volume doesn't grow on trees. You're starting him if he plays.

Jayden Reed (GB) -- We are witnessing the Jayden Reed breakout before our very eyes. Since Week 10, Reed has been the WR12 overall. He's turned in three WR1 performances over that span and just saw a 26.3% target share last week in addition to his work on the ground. Tampa Bay has given up the fourth-highest WR target rate and fifth-most yards per route run (YPRR) over the last four games, so Reed is a strong flex or WR3 this week.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba (SEA) -- He doesn't have the fantasy production to show for it, but Jaxon Smith-Njigba has led the Seahawks with a 26.1% target share in the last two weeks. Perhaps this is the week JSN truly breaks out. Over the last seven weeks, the Eagles have given up the most touchdowns and second-most raw fantasy points per target to opposing WRs. His upside is too high to leave on benches in a game with a 47.5-point total.

Tyler Lockett (SEA) -- Tyler Lockett has commanded at least an 18% target share in every game since Week 1 and ranks second on the team with a 21.3% red zone target share over that span. He broke out of a mini-slump with 11.9 FP last week, so we can feel safe deploying Lockett regardless of who's under center for Seattle.

Calvin Ridley (JAX) -- With Christian Kirk out, Calvin Ridley has garnered 21 targets in the last two games. That's led to only eight receptions and two finishes outside the top-40 WRs, but it's only a matter of time before that volume leads to fantasy production. While Baltimore has a strong secondary, they just gave up three top-24 finishes to the Rams' receivers.

Odell Beckham Jr. (BAL) -- I'm not saying Odell Beckham is back, but he's certainly fantasy-relevant again. Odell has eclipsed 10 FP in four of his last five games, and he just dropped 17.7 FP and commanded a 25% target share. The matchup is glorious this week. Jacksonville has given up the fifth-most adjusted fantasy points per target to WRs on the season and the third-most YPRR over the last five weeks. He's one of my favorite starts of the week.

Adam Thielen (CAR) -- Adam Thielen bounced back with 9.9 FP after a pair of quiet weeks. Although he's just the WR42 since Carolina's Week 7 bye, the matchup is strong enough to warrant a start this week. Atlanta features strong outside corners but has been vulnerable to the slot, most recently ceding 11 targets to Chris Godwin. Thielen is a quality flex based on volume alone.

Diontae Johnson (PIT) -- Diontae Johnson delivered with Mitch Trubisky at the helm last week, commanding a 20% target share and catching a touchdown en route to 13.2 FP. Indianapolis has given up the eighth-most adjusted fantasy points per target to WRs this season, so Johnson's steady volume settles him in flex territory for Week 15.

Noah Brown (HOU) -- I don't want anything to do with Houston's receivers if C.J. Stroud is out, but Noah Brown has upside if Stroud is cleared. Brown quietly leads all Texans WRs with an 80.2% route rate, and he's run a route on at least 70% of dropbacks in all seven of his healthy games. The Titans have let up the second-most adjusted fantasy points per target to the position, so he's a strong flex if Stroud plays.

Tier 3: On the Fence

Amari Cooper (CLE) -- Joe Flacco peppered Amari Cooper with 14 targets last week. Although he managed to haul in only seven of those, his 77 yards were his most since Deshaun Watson's last start. That target volume has Cooper under flex consideration, but the matchup is tough. The Bears have held WRs to the eighth-lowest target rate on the season, and they just held Amon-Ra St. Brown to just 3.6 FP.

Terry McLaurin (WSH) -- Terry McLaurin continues to run a route on nearly 90% of dropbacks, but his fantasy production has dried up of late. He hasn't eclipsed 10 FP since Week 8 and was held without a catch in their most recent outing. While there's room for optimism that McLaurin sees an uptick coming out of Washington's bye, the Rams rank fifth in adjusted fantasy points allowed to receivers.

Drake London (ATL) -- It's not Drake London's fault, but he's been an inconsistent fantasy player of late. While he is coming off a season-best 24.2 FP, London had been held to single digits in four of his previous five games. Carolina is a run-funnel defense, and Atlanta has by far the lowest pass rate over expectation this season, so London is a true dart throw on the road.

Zay Jones (JAX) -- Like Calvin Ridley, Zay Jones has commanded a ton of targets over the last two weeks -- 22, to be exact. That resulted in only 15.7 combined FP, however, so his volume isn't guaranteed to lead to fantasy production. Still, flirting with double-digit targets warrants a start in itself, even in a tough matchup.

Brandin Cooks (DAL) -- Brandin Cooks is like the Gus Edwards of receivers. When he scores, it's great. Cooks has five touchdowns on the season, and he's averaging 16.6 FP in those games. However, he's running a 13.1% target share, so there's not much margin for error when he doesn't score. Dallas has a 24-point implied team total this week, and the Bills allow the ninth-most adjusted fantasy points per target to WRs, but Cooks' inconsistent volume doesn't offer much of a floor.

Jakobi Meyers (LV) -- Jakobi Meyers commanded a 20.7% target share last week... but it resulted in just 5.0 FP. Aidan O'Connell hasn't proven very capable of supporting both Meyers and Davante Adams in the same week, so it's hard to trust the former even against a Charmin Ultra Soft Chargers secondary.

Romeo Doubs (GB) -- Romeo Doubs saw an 18.4% target share and a pair of red zone targets last week but managed just 5.2 FP. That was without Christian Watson. If Watson suits up this week, he'd be the preferred play of the two in a good matchup. Tampa has been shredded by outside receivers, but there are a lot of mouths to feed in Green Bay.

Curtis Samuel (WSH) -- Curtis Samuel paced the Washington receiving core with a 25.8% target share in their two games before the bye, so there's an argument he's the best start of the bunch. While the Rams have a strong secondary, Washington passes at the third-highest rate over expectation, and they're 6.5-point underdogs indoors. He has upside, for sure, but there's a degree of risk involved with someone who's been held under 5.0 FP in four of his last six games.

Tier 4: Sit

Tee Higgins (CIN) -- Tee Higgins has finished with 5.1 and 8.2 FP in two games with Jake Browning under center despite eclipsing a 70% snap rate in both outings. He's tied for fourth on the team in target share (11.3%) over that span, making him impossible to trust against a Vikings defense that's given up the third-fewest raw fantasy points per target to WRs since Week 6.

Marquise Brown (ARI) -- Notorious man-beater Marquise Brown laid an egg in his most recent outing and has a tough matchup this week. Per NextGenStats, San Francisco plays zone at the ninth-highest rate and Hollywood's been held under 4.0 FP in three of Kyler Murray's first four starts. There just isn't enough upside to justify his low floor this week.

Chris Godwin (TB) -- Chris Godwin saw a season-high 37.9% target share last week, but he still extended his streak of single-digit fantasy outings to six games. Although Green Bay's secondary is average at best, Godwin is unlikely to see that many targets again -- and even if he does, he hasn't proved capable of consistently delivering.

Jordan Addison (MIN) -- Jordan Addison hasn't finished as a top-30 WR since Week 8 and is now on his fourth starting quarterback of the season. With Justin Jefferson trending up, Addison is at best the third option for a career-backup QB on the road. He's an easy sit.

Tight Ends

Tier 1: Locks

Tier 2: Starters

Cole Kmet (CHI) -- Cole Kmet finished as a TE1 for the fifth time in Justin Fields' eight full games last week. In those eight games, Kmet is averaging 9.1 FP and 45.1 yards per game while showing the second-highest target share (20.8%) on the team. For as good of a defense as the Browns have, they've given up the second-most adjusted fantasy points per target to tight ends. Continue to start him with confidence.

Dallas Goedert (PHI) -- It wasn't the flashiest return to action, but Dallas Goedert was on the field for 82.4% of snaps and saw a 14.8% target share in his first game since Week 9. While Philly's offense has struggled of late, Goedert has as much touchdown upside as anyone given their 25.75 implied team total. Seattle's middle-of-the-pack against TEs, but they've let up the eighth-most yards per route run (YPRR) to the position.

Tier 3: On the Fence

Kyle Pitts (ATL) -- Don't tell Arthur Smith, but Kyle Pitts has run a route on 86.3% of dropbacks with a 21.9% target share over the last two weeks. Although he's finished as the TE13 and TE6 over that span, I'm not totally sold this week. Carolina is top-10 in adjusted fantasy points allowed to tight ends, and Desmond Ridder has only eclipsed 201 passing yards once in six road starts.

Pat Freiermuth (PIT) -- Pat Freiermuth leads Pittsburgh with a 24.5% target share over the last three weeks. That hasn't translated to consistent fantasy production, however, as he's finished as the TE2, TE23, and TE23. Indy has let up the fourth-highest tight end target rate this season, but Freiermuth hasn't been reliable enough to start with much confidence.

Logan Thomas (WSH) -- Logan Thomas' snap rate dipped below 70% in Washington's last two games, and his target share evaporated with it. Still, Washington is among the most pass-happy teams in the NFL, and this is a glorious matchup for tight ends. The Rams have given up by far the most adjusted fantasy points per target to the position, which at least gives Thomas some streaming appeal.

Tier 4: Sit

Gerald Everett (LAC) -- Gerald Everett only has three top-12 finishes on the year, and that was with Justin Herbert. With Herbert out, there's little reason to confidently play the Charger's tight end against a Raiders defense that held T.J. Hockenson in check last week.

Interested in playing NFL DFS? Head over to FanDuel’s daily fantasy football lobby to see all the offerings for this week's slates.

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.

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