Derrick Henry was among the handful of running backs to change teams during the offseason, notably joining the Baltimore Ravens following a productive eight seasons with the Tennessee Titans. The Ravens and Henry appear to be a natural fit as the bulldozing back forms a lethal backfield combo with Lamar Jackson.

Henry has long been a coveted running back in fantasy football due to his consistent usage and touchdown equity. At the same time, the running back position tends to hit a proverbial cliff at a certain age, and Henry turned 30 years old in January with 280-plus carries in four of his last five seasons.

Will Henry be an outlier at a position that tends to see production decline in the latter stages of a career? Or will we see signs of Henry declining in his ninth year in the NFL?

Let's dive into Henry's outlook and ADP for the 2024-25 campaign to determine if he's worth targeting in fantasy football drafts.

Derrick Henry Fantasy Football Outlook

Henry's 2023 Recap

It was a somewhat peculiar season for Henry in 2023-24 as he garnered a 53.9% snap share, compared to Tyjae Spears earning a 52.9% snap share alongside him, per NextGenStats. Even with a lower snap count than usual -- and playing behind a dismal offensive line -- Henry still managed to register 0.31 rushing yards over expected per carry and a 64.9% red-zone rushing share that led to 12 rushing touchdowns.

After accumulating 1,167 rushing yards and a dozen scores last season, Henry has now achieved 1,100-plus rushing yards in four of his last five years while finding the end zone 10-plus times in each of his last six. The only season he fell short of 1,100-plus rushing yards in that span was 2021-22 when he logged 937 rushing yards and 10 rushing touchdowns in eight starts before suffering a season-ending foot injury.

Despite seeing Spears cut into his workload, Henry still finished as the overall RB8 and was tied for the 15th-most fantasy points per game (13.7) in half-PPR formats last year. Going from the Titans to the Ravens should provide Henry a much-needed lift at this point of his career.

Henry Receives a Massive Boost Joining Ravens

It's clear that Henry is joining a much more fantasy-friendly environment in Baltimore compared to what he's been surrounded with in Tennessee in recent years. According to ESPN's team win rates, the Titans were ranked 21st in run-block win rate (70%), while the Ravens were ranked 5th in run-block win rate (72%) a season ago.

Gus Edwards posted career-best marks in carries (198), rushing yards (810), and rushing touchdowns (13) in Todd Monken's first year as offensive coordinator of the Ravens in 2023-24. With Keaton Mitchell coming off a torn ACL, there's no reason to believe Henry will face stiff competition for touches in the upcoming season.

Playing alongside Lamar could be viewed as a negative for Henry due to Jackson piling up rushing numbers, but it could be beneficial for him. Having Jackson commanding attention from defenses with his arm and legs should generate lighter boxes than Henry is accustomed to.

Double-Digit Touchdowns Are Still Headed Henry's Way

Henry was handed a two-year, $16 million contract by the Ravens with $9 million of it being guaranteed money. In terms of average annual salary, Henry is making the eighth-most ($8 million) among running backs.

Baltimore has no intentions of not giving Henry a healthy workload -- especially in the red zone -- in his debut season with the franchise.

Scoring touchdowns is part of the norm for Henry as he's scored 12-plus touchdowns in each of his last five years where he's made 12-plus starts. It shouldn't come as a surprise that the Titans had the fifth-lowest red-zone touchdown rate (47.92%), while the Ravens had the seventh-best red-zone touchdown rate (62.16%) in 2023-24.

With the Ravens potentially wanting Jackson to take fewer hits in short-yardage situations, Henry's role becomes even more clear in this offense. Assuming Henry can remain healthy for anywhere between 12 to 17 games, double-digit touchdowns are certainly obtainable for a seventh straight year.

Derrick Henry Fantasy Football Projection

When looking at numberFire's fantasy football projections -- which assume a 17-game season for each player -- it's clear the model is a fan of Henry's.

It is forecasting Henry to conclude the upcoming season as the RB6 overall with the fourth-most rushing attempts (302.2), fourth-most rushing yards (1,325), and second-most rushing touchdowns (11.9) among running backs. While any receiving production is merely a bonus for Henry in this offense, numberFire predicts the All-Pro back to haul in 18.6 passes for 151.6 yards on 25.2 targets.

Ahead of the impending campaign, Henry is being given -135 odds to score 10-plus regular season rushing touchdowns and -110 odds to finish with 1,000-plus rushing yards in the regular season.

In half-PPR formats, Henry remains an elite option in an offense that had the fifth-highest rush rate (42%) last year. There is risk in taking Henry entering his ninth season in the league, but every running back naturally has an increased chance to miss time due to the wear and tear the position experiences.

Even though history suggests Henry is nearing the end of his time as a fantasy-relevant back, signing with the Ravens could give him at least one more year where he produces at a premier level.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.