Fantasy Football: Is Christian Watson a Breakout Candidate in 2023?

The Green Bay Packers still haven't drafted a wide receiver in the first round of the NFL Draft since Javon Walker in 2002, but 2022 second-round pick Christian Watson sure played like one at points during his rookie campaign.

The rookie's first career target -- a would-be touchdown from Aaron Rodgers -- ended with a drop, but once Watson caught on, he became one of the league's most exciting young receivers.

Unfortunately for Watson, he will no longer be catching dimes from a future Hall of Famer. The Packers parted ways with Rodgers this offseason, paving the way to open the Jordan Love era.

Can Watson continue creating explosive plays on a consistent basis with an unproven young starter under center?

Christian Watson Fantasy Football Projection

• 2023 Positional Ranking: WR19
• 2023 Projected Stats:
  • 136.5 targets
  • 80.7 receptions
  • 1,040.5 yards
  • 6.6 touchdowns

Christian Watson Fantasy Football Outlook

Watson's Promising Debut

Watson didn't generate the kind of first-round draft pick buzz that 2022 contemporaries like Chris Olave and Garrett Wilson did heading into last year's NFL Draft, but the former North Dakota State standout did earn himself a strong following in the months leading up to the draft.

That support culminated in second-round draft capital. The Packers traded up to select Watson with the second overall pick of the second round.

Coming from a smaller school, it wasn't too surprising when Watson was a touch slow to catch on in the NFL. Of course, dropping his first target didn't do him any favors, either.

The drop certainly drew some disappointment from then-starter Aaron Rodgers, but Watson also flashed an exciting ability to get several yards of separation down the field moments prior to that gaff. It took some time for him to earn consistent playing time after that, but he was able to continue making similar -- more successful -- plays like that once he did.

Over the final eight games of the season, Watson averaged 3.9 catches, 65.4 yards, and a whopping 0.9 touchdowns per game for the Packers. He often looked like the most athletic player on the field while opposing defenses struggled to contain him.

That Watson was able to do so much damage on such limited opportunities is certainly due, in part, to playing with one of the most efficient quarterbacks in NFL history. No matter how optimistic we may be about the second-year wideout for the 2023 season, the odds of him getting an upgrade in quarterback play are slim to none. But there are reasons for optimism with Watson regardless of his quarterback.

More Than Just a Deep Threat

Watson's knack for scoring long touchdowns certainly won over fantasy gamers' hearts knack last year. Three of his seven receiving touchdowns came on plays of over 30 yards, meaning they likely resulted in at least 10 fantasy points in a single play.

But he was also able to score in ways that didn't bank on his quarterback connecting on a deep pass. That could insulate Watson's fantasy production against the potential for a dud season from Love.

Watson's ability to win on vertical routes as a rookie was eye-catching, but so was his ability to burn defenders while moving laterally. The Packers figured out that few defenders could actually catch up to Watson once he got up to speed, and his ability to actually turn the corner despite his 6'4" frame made him difficult to bring down if they could catch up to him. He only drew seven carries on the season, but took those for 80 yards and two touchdowns -- an absurd 11.43 yards per carry average.

Watson running across the formation became a staple of the Packers' red zone package down the stretch, too, making him a dangerous weapon once they got in close. His rare athleticism all but guarantees that the Packers will continue designing him looks in the upcoming season.

We also have to point out that Watson notched the fourth-fastest top speed of any player last year, hitting 21.72 miles per hour on his 46-yard rushing touchdown against the Chicago Bears. Other receivers may draw targets on a more consistent basis than Watson, but he's capable of breaking off a long touchdown on any given touch.

Can He Produce with Love?

The transition from Aaron Rodgers to an unproven Jordan Love is a scary one.

We've barely seen Love on an NFL field since the Packers took him in the first round of the 2020 NFL Draft. But it seems like we should still be optimistic about the potential for a second-year breakout from Watson this season.

To start, we've actually seen Love and Watson connect on a touchdown in the regular season -- Love filled in for an injured Rodgers against the Philadelphia Eagles last year and hit Watson in stride over the middle, leading to a 63-yard score. On the very next drive, Love hit Watson again for another 15-yard gain. They very nearly synced up for a second touchdown in the red zone shortly after that.

It was truly a limited sample size, but Love did show that he had some chops in that quarter of action against one of the best defenses in the league. He's backed that up with solid performances in the preseason so far, as well.

Love may not be Aaron Rodgers, but it looks like he should still be able to help propel Watson to a second-season breakout in 2023.

Is the Sophomore Breakout Happening?

Watson has all the physical tools necessary to produce another hyper-efficient season in Green Bay. With former teammates like Allen Lazard and Randall Cobb joining Rodgers in New York for the upcoming year, Watson is likely to become the focal point of the Packers' passing game.

numberFire's model is quite bullish on Watson, projecting him for a WR19 finish in the upcoming season. He currently holds an average draft position (ADP) as the WR25, according to FantasyPros' consensus ADP data, which would make him one of the biggest values on a typical draft board should numberFire's projections play out.

Getting picked on average as the 63rd overall player, Watson is basically a must-draft player in the sixth round.

He has the upside to finish inside the top 12 players at his position but is available far later than contemporaries like Olave and Wilson who go in the first three rounds of drafts. The opportunity cost of betting on Watson's skillset in that area of drafts is close to zero, as well, making him one of the safest picks in fantasy drafts.

While you wait for Week 1's daily fantasy football slates to lock, you can get in on some best-ball fantasy football drafts on FanDuel, as well. Just draft your team and watch the points pile up throughout the season.

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.