Fantasy Football: How Does Bo Nix Impact the Outlook for Denver's Offense?

After a massive failure with Russell Wilson as the starting quarterback over the last two seasons, the Denver Broncos decided to turn the page by searching for a new franchise signal-caller this offseason. It began with Denver cutting Wilson and eating $85 million in dead money.

Denver used their top selection in the NFL Draft -- the 12th overall pick -- on Bo Nix. That was one of the biggest surprises of the draft as Nix was consistently seen outside the top-30 prospects on big boards.

But after Nix impressed through two weeks in the preseason, the Broncos already made the call to name the rookie as the starting quarterback over Jarrett Stidham and Zach Wilson. The buzz surrounding Nix is promising for Denver's skill players, but will it be enough to make them relevant for fantasy football in 2024?

Before digging into Nix's potential impact on the offense, let's look at his journey of winning the starting position.

Nix's Trek to Start in Denver

Nix will officially be the Broncos' first rookie starting quarterback since Hall of Famer John Elway.

His performance in the preseason demanded attention. After putting up 125 passing yards and one touchdown with a 102.3 passer rating in Week 1 of the preseason, Nix got his chance to run with the first-teamers in Week 2. Once again, it was a strong performance with 80 passing yards while completing 8 of 9 passes (88.9%). Pro Football Focus (PFF) has Nix with an above-average 78.4 passing grade in the preseason.

Nix also took starting snaps in a joint practice against the Green Bay Packers last week. He earned a glowing review from two-time All-Pro cornerback Jaire Alexander.

Jeremy Fowler of ESPN stated, "Privately, the Broncos are not hiding away from the fact that he’s been impressive -- his ability to process at the line of scrimmage, to move the ball downfield. They’ve really liked him, so perhaps he can stamp things today in this quarterback battle."

Denver finally made the call to name the Nix the starter following a week full of rave reviews.

Nix has the fourth-shortest odds to win NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year (+1300). He's sharing company with Caleb Williams (+120), Jayden Daniels (+600), Marvin Harrison Jr. (+650), Malik Nabers (+1500), and Xavier Worthy (+1900) for the OROY trophy.

Bottom-Tier Receiving Unit Causes Concerns

Now that Nix is officially the first-team QB, what does it mean for the Broncos' skill position players?

We should preface this by saying this could be the worst receiving corps in football.

In terms of fantasy upside, there isn't much to like about this room in terms, and that can seen via FantasyPros' average draft position (ADP) data in half-point per reception (PPR) leagues. Courtland Sutton is expected to be the team's WR1 with a WR47 ADP, followed by Troy Franklin as WR71, Marvin Mims at WR76, and Tim Patrick carrying a WR87 ADP.

Sutton posted a 7.5% catch rate over expectation (CROE) and 5.6 receiving yards over expectation per game (RecYOE), per NFL's Next Gen Stats. Sutton finishing 49th in target share among receivers in 2023 isn't very promising, though.

Mims has also been circled as a fantasy football breakout candidate. His 6.5 RecYOE per contest last season provides more support, but he played only one snap across Denver's first two drives in Week 2 of the preseason.

The biggest preseason winners in terms of snap counts have been Sutton and Patrick. Sutton looked like the WR1 in Week 2 of the preseason, leading the starters with 19 snaps and 11 routes run. For the second straight week, Patrick appeared to be the WR2, taking 15 snaps. Patrick has seen his ADP drop some of late while Sutton still has enticing upside as the top dog in this offense.

The tight end room is far from promising with Greg Dulcich holding the earliest ADP among the corps as TE30. Dulcich has yet to start in more than six games in a season over his two-year career, and he has only two career touchdowns.

numberFire's schedule-adjusted metrics have the Broncos with the eighth-worst passing offense. Of course, this doesn't necessarily account for Nix as the starter yet, but in short, don't expect this to be an elite passing attack.

However, Nix can help elevate this unit after throwing for over 3,500 passing yards in his last two seasons with the Oregon Ducks. According to PFF, Nix steadily climbed, going from a 78.5 player grade to 86.8 and 93.0 over his final three seasons in college. He had the second-highest passing grade (92.7) in college football last season.

Denver averaged the fifth-fewest passing attempts per game last year and produced only one top-50 receiver in fantasy football last season (Sutton). It would take a lot for Nix to take this unit to the next level. Which skill position players are worth targeting?

Will the Broncos' Skill Players Be Relevant in Fantasy?

Starting with tight end, it's not looking promising. Scoring touchdowns are a significant piece for tight ends in fantasy, per usual.

For a Denver team that put up the 13th-fewest points per game (PPG) in the 2023 season, it's far from great for the tight end room. Additionally, Dulcich has yet to prove his worth as a starter, and Adam Trautman throws a wrench into the equation with his 72.3% snap share from 2023 (15th-best at his position), via PlayerProfiler.

Going back to the receiver room, Sutton and Patrick are the clear answers. Patrick is easy to like at his WR87 ADP as the current WR2 in the offense.

Sutton is the player who will likely benefit the most from Nix starting. Nix was on an offense that attempted the 18th-most passing attempts while totaling 5th-most yards per attempt among 133 teams in college football a season ago. Nix can flourish in a pass-happy offense; the Broncos' attempts should go up.

The clear-cut top target of this offense is Sutton. His WR47 ADP is worth a swing considering his solid efficiency marks from last season.

We should give some time to the running backs, as well. Javonte Williams posted a so-so receiving grade of 61.9 last season. Still, he had the 11th-highest target share among his position a campaign ago.

Jaleel McLaughlin is also drawing interest as a preseason winner. He posted excellent PFF grades across the board, such as a 85.2 receiving grade. McLaughlin's 4.42 yards created per touch (sixth-best) provides even more promise.

The running back room surely has potential when it comes to receiving. Neither back is carrying a high ADP, either -- Williams has a RB29 ADP and McLaughlin holds RB50.

Nix wasn't afraid of targeting his backs at Oregon. In fact, Bucky Irving totaled 56 receptions in 2023, which was the third-highest mark on the Ducks.

Along with Sutton and Patrick, Williams -- perhaps even McLaughlin as a deep sleeper -- could see his fantasy stock heighten with Nix taking the starting quarterback job.

Don't expect anyone in this offense to be one of the best players across fantasy football. After all, this is numberFire's ninth-worst schedule-adjusted offense for the 2024 season. A handful of skill players have a better shot of surpassing their ADP with Nix under center, but the ceiling is still quite low across the board.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.