Fantasy Football: Don't Expect Another QB1 Season From Brock Purdy

At this point, the story is so good that it's not even really controversial to say Brock Purdy is a better story than he is a football player -- especially from the perspective of fantasy football.

The 2022 NFL Draft's Mr. Irrelevant ended up playing significant snaps as a rookie with the San Francisco 49ers, leading them to the 2023 NFC Championship before suffering an elbow injury to down the Niners' hopes. In 2023's regular season, Purdy led the 49ers to a 12-4 record as the starter and an outright NFC Championship, earning a spot in this past February's Super Bowl.

S.F. lost in overtime, but FanDuel's odds to win the Super Bowl state no team has a better shot to capture the next title than Purdy's 49ers (+600). FanDuel's win total odds set the Niners at 11.5 projected wins -- tied for the best mark in the NFL.

Big things are expected for San Francisco -- and their offense -- in 2024, so many are turning to Brock Purdy in fantasy football drafts. After all, Purdy was one of the most efficient QBs in the NFL a season ago, and his cupboard of weapons -- for the moment -- remains stocked. It makes sense, right?

However, with an average draft position (ADP) as the QB12 and at 144.7 overall in FanDuel's best-ball leagues, does the draft capital required to draft Purdy now outweigh the most likely scenarios for how he produces in 2024?

Brock Purdy Fantasy Football Outlook

The Mad Genius' Concoction

Clearly, none of the 32 teams -- including his own -- that passed on Brock Purdy a minimum of five times thought he'd ever one day lead the NFL in a key passing efficiency stat, but I'm not sure the 49ers' talent evaluators even imagined how efficient this self-driving car could truly become.

Though San Francisco fans are already groaning about the prospect of Purdy being doubted here yet again, Jimmy Garoppolo let the cat out of the bag with the Las Vegas Raiders a year ago. Per the NFL's NextGenStats, Garoppolo was ninth in expected points added per drop back in 2021 among qualifiers (0.09 EPA/db). He was fourth among quarterbacks with at least 10 games played in 2022 (0.16 EPA/db) before a season-ending injury, and Purdy kept it motoring in his place.

Brock finished out that season at 0.19 EPA/db to become just one of the three ranked above Jimmy G, and he led the NFL in this stat a season ago (0.22). Garoppolo's eyesore of a season in Las Vegas where he was thoroughly less effective than Aidan O'Connell can only lead us to the fair conclusion that he wasn't a top-10 quarterback in his time with the 49ers when healthy. It's also a decent indication that Purdy -- wiped off several NFL boards as a draft pick -- probably isn't a top-10 quarterback that Kyle Shanahan scooped out of thin air, either.

Rather, the former Iowa State Cyclones captain is simply Max Verstappen aboard this Red Bull Powertrains machine. While Purdy has redeeming qualities of his own by way of accuracy and decision making, a vast majority of the reason that he was able to post 306.6 fantasy points last year as the QB6 overall was the supporting cast around him. It'd be foolish to deny that.

Of course, why is this even relevant? Purdy is staying in San Francisco with his weapons intact, so he's ready to go put down another fast lap at Monaco, right? Well, the rigors of an NFL season aren't quite as predictable as an F1 practice lap, and a lot could go wrong for Purdy this season that hasn't in years prior.

Climbing the Mountain Thrice

It's possible to make an argument against any potential fantasy football pick by projecting injuries to either them or their key supporting cast members, and we know it's a realistic part of the projection. NFL attrition comes for all in the grand sample of this league.

However, only the Kansas City Chiefs (41) have played more overall games in the past two seasons than the San Francisco 49ers (40), so both of those clubs enter this fresh season at a bit of a wear-and-tear disadvantage compared to all others. It's something to consider when wondering where the injury bug might bite.

If you accept the thesis of Purdy's efficiency -- and therefore fantasy production to put up yards and points -- being tied to his supporting cast, this has to be especially concerning to draft him as a QB1 in most spots. Not only have the 49ers played a ton of games recently, but his supporting cast members aren't made of teflon. We've seen all nicked up at previous points of their career.

Christian McCaffrey is a legend in this realm, but the 28-year-old running back has handled 668 touches over the last two seasons. If his name was shielded off the resumé, we'd be greatly concerned about the long-term effects of the workload that's made him a god in fantasy football. Purdy has never started without the best running back in the NFL by his side, so losing him could be a problem.

Out wide, an overtly physical Deebo Samuel has missed six games in the past two seasons. Now at 30, George Kittle had missed a minimum of two games for each of the previous four seasons before sitting just once -- by design in Week 18 -- last season. The least injury-affected player of Purdy's core weapons is Brandon Aiyuk, who went public earlier this month with the preference to not be a Niner by the start of the season. Stud left tackle Trent Williams is also now 36 with an extensive injury history.

There is a distinct possibility that the recent volume of games becomes an issue that leaves Purdy without two or three of his most vital pieces. Because Purdy doesn't really use his legs to score fantasy points, does the supreme passing efficiency that made him a QB1 stick without them? It's an expensive decision to find out.

No Room at the Inn

While assumption of injuries as a worst-case scenario might be too slippery of a slope for some, a look back at the 2023 fantasy football leaders among quarterbacks might be the most harrowing indictment against Purdy returning to QB1 status among the bevy of options that he finished ahead of -- many of whom are willing runners.

Even as an efficient passer a year ago with everyone healthy, Purdy was just the QB8 on a points-per-game basis (19.2 FPPG). Kirk Cousins, a QB in a similar mold, slipped by him in that regard before his season-ending injury. Cousins is set for a debut season with the Atlanta Falcons' collection of weapons that might even rival S.F.'s.

However, there are also a few he outperformed that are total longshots to finish behind Purdy in 2024. Patrick Mahomes is being drafted with a projected return to the top five after K.C. added weapons. Kyler Murray finished just behind Purdy in points per game and now adds Marvin Harrison Jr. to the fold as a bonafide top option. C.J. Stroud (19.7 FPPG) comfortably outpaced Purdy's 19.2 FPPG in his last 10 games after a rookie breakout, and Anthony Richardson's small sample (18.2 FPPG) ducked in just behind Purdy despite upside with his legs we know could produce the QB1 overall.

If you just take those five in conjunction with finishers above him last season (Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, Lamar Jackson, Dak Prescott, and Jordan Love), the QB1 room is already pretty full. I haven't even mentioned Jared Goff, Tua Tagovailoa, Joe Burrow, Trevor Lawrence, or rookies Caleb Williams and Jayden Daniels. Holy smokes.

Purdy's upside will always be limited relative to some peers as a pocket quarterback. He posted just 144 rushing yards in 16 games, and "listed" at 6'1", I'm not even sure it would be in his best interest for longevity purposes to add that to his game. Posting elite efficiency and 1.94 passing touchdowns per game alongside McCaffrey, it's possible we just saw the best outcome for him in fantasy football in this situation. While he can still be extremely effective for what his team needs him to be, he's just not overly relevant in fantasy settings, and his ADP is too high based on last season's box score.

Brock Purdy Fantasy Football Projection

Behind elite efficiency that doesn't take into account how much of the situation is weighted on his shoulders, Brock Purdy's best friend when arguing fantasy value should be computer projections. Even then, FanDuel Research's fantasy football projections have turned their back on San Francisco's franchise quarterback.

Purdy slides below his QB12 ADP on FanDuel to the projections' current QB14 on the basis of 4,172.6 passing yards, 31.0 touchdowns, 11.2 interceptions, 160.0 rushing yards, and 1.5 rushing touchdowns, wrapping into 299.7 fantasy points using standard QB scoring. Those expectations are based on a standard 17-game projection for all players.

Though also accounting for his injury risk, FanDuel Sportsbook's passing props expect a drop from Purdy's 2023 production. His yardage line sits at 3,875.5 passing yards as a pick 'em, and Purdy is a -124 favorite to throw under 28.5 touchdown passes. Pro Football Focus (PFF)'s expected fantasy points model pegged Purdy with just 22.0 expected touchdowns in 2023 based on his yardage and red zone opportunity, which could merit a sneaky look underneath the projections' expectations.

Among the consensus top-15 quarterbacks on the board, I don't see a worse pick among them than Purdy. In order for him to significantly outperform the investment he requires, Purdy will have to once again remain fully healthy and replicate elite efficiency -- thanks to his weaponry -- with favorable touchdown regression. It's a hard scenario to envision when injury variance has already been on San Francisco's side for two consecutive trips deep into the playoffs.

Personally, I've got Purdy ranked as my QB18 behind both Trevor Lawrence and Deshaun Watson due to their rushing upside and significantly better roles in the red zone. In scoring zones, the 49ers' attack funnels through CMC first. That'll be the case as long as he's healthy, and if he's not, this offense has potentially cratered on Purdy's shoulders anyway.

I'd sooner wait for Daniel Jones or Will Levis' improved situations than take him in the top 15, so I can't see myself selecting Purdy in any realistic situation this season.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.