Fantasy Football: Does Ezekiel Elliott Shine in a Second Stint With the Cowboys?

As someone currently working on his first marriage, I'm probably no expert on a second marriage to the same spouse, but it's probably worked at some point, right?

The Dallas Cowboys and Ezekiel Elliott are hoping it works out for them. Elliott left the Cowboys at the end of the 2022 season as Dallas ran off, happily in love, with Tony Pollard. The fourth-round pick in the 2019 NFL Draft had succeeded to post 1,378 scrimmage yards alongside Elliott in 2022, so they believed they could make Pollard the feature back and save costs by not retaining Zeke.

It worked out to mixed results. While Dallas went 12-5 with numberFire's seventh-ranked overall offense, per its schedule-adjusted rankings, the running game was lacking. It graded out 20th of 32 teams in those same rankings, and Pollard's fantasy managers were disappointed by a RB15 finish in half-PPR points despite a full 17 games. He scored just six total touchdowns.

In turn, the 'Boys let Pollard walk for a larger deal in anticipation of adding a new, talented running back in the 2024 NFL Draft, but the board never shook Dallas' way. They -- almost inexplicably -- didn't take a running back, which meant just Rico Dowdle and Deuce Vaughn were positioned to take on heavy work...until Jerry dialed up an old friend.

Elliott re-signed with Dallas in April after a season with the New England Patriots. It made sense for both parties to reunite with Elliott striking out in free agency as his former team did in the draft.

Now, fantasy football managers have a decision to make. What will Elliott's role look like with the Cowboys in his reunion? Does he have enough left in the tank to help your team?

Ezekiel Elliott Fantasy Football Outlook

How Much Can We Feed Zeke?

Though it was unknown what Elliott's role would be on the Patriots at the start of the season, we got a very important look into Zeke's current appetite for work late last season.

He was largely considered a change-of-pace back to Rhamondre Stevenson before Stevenson suffered a high ankle sprain in Week 13. From there, the 2-10 Pats decided to run a lost season with quarterback and pass-catching issues through Elliott in the backfield. In the final five weeks of the season, Zeke played 86.8% of the team's snaps and ran 68.1% of the team's routes. He averaged 27.6 adjusted opportunities per game during this period, which was third in the NFL behind only Breece Hall and Kyren Williams.

Elliott still showed that his legs could handle the work, which is worth something in itself considering the competition he's facing with the Cowboys. However, it is worth noting the efficiency component was lacking; he posted -0.35 rushing yards over expectation per carry (RYOE/c) in this time, per NFL's NextGenStats. Surprisingly, Zeke was much more efficient catching the ball at 7.0 receiving yards over expectation per game when seeing 6.6 targets per game during this period.

All of a sudden, Elliott appears to have a path to the workload we so desperately crave from any running back in fantasy football. He can work all three downs with added effectiveness in passing situations. Plus, the one aspect of projecting his 2024 season in Dallas we can bank on is his goal-line role.

In 2022, Elliott scored 12 rushing touchdowns with a 54.5% red zone rushing share as the thunder to Pollard's lightning. That was the eighth-highest rate of team red zone rushes in the NFL, and there isn't any sort of competition on that front.

Just as he did at the end of last season, Elliott should have one of the greatest opportunities to produce in fantasy this season, but this time, it's with a significantly better offense to make it count.

A Reunion Worth Fighting For

It's hard to not get nostalgic thinking of an Ezekiel Elliott-Dak Prescott backfield tandem again considering the twists and turns both have endured to reunite at their current career trajectories.

In 2016, Elliott's elite production carried Prescott as a fourth-round rookie in a rush-first offense, but as Zeke has aged, it might be #4 setting up opportunities to feed Zeke scores. Regardless of postseason or "clutch time" banter, Dak has quietly become of the NFL's most efficient passers. Per NextGenStats, he was second in expected points added per drop back (0.15 EPA/db) with a 7.9 average depth of target (aDOT) to show that efficiency didn't all come via layups.

That led Dallas to the fifth-ranked passing offense in numberFire's schedule-adjusted ranks, and they're powered by a trio of returning weapons. CeeDee Lamb is a bonafide top wideout in the entire league, Brandin Cooks' 70.7 receiving grade at Pro Football Focus (PFF) shows he's getting the job done in a reduced role, and Jake Ferguson broke out to post the fifth-best receiving yards over expectation at his position last season (112.5), per NextGenStats.

By all accounts, this might be the best passing attack with the best version of Prescott that Elliott has ever played with, and he's going to potentially have a three-down role -- and an overwhelming goal-line role -- alongside it. That is a tremendous proposition for a player currently going as the RB40 with a 202.8 average draft position (ADP) in FanDuel's best-ball leagues.

Younger Horses in the Stable

All of Elliott's projection sounds awesome at the moment. He's potentially in line for a dominant snap share with elite goal-line work, and this offense is tremendous. How, then, is he going so low in fantasy drafts? Well, we have to admit Zeke is no spring chicken a whopping 2,421 touches into his NFL career, and it's possible he's just dust as his ADP would suggest.

Considering all possibilities, Dallas does have younger options on the roster. Rico Dowdle is the first back with a potential stake to work after a 22.0% snap rate a year ago in relief of Pollard, but there's a reason the Cowboys pursued an alternative. Dowdle posted -0.07 RYOE/c himself, which was the best on the team including Pollard -- but it wasn't great. His -4.0% catch rate over expectation didn't turn many heads in the passing game, either. There's a reason he's still the second man on the official depth chart.

On paper, I'd say to watch out for one of the most fun prospects of the 2023 NFL Draft, Deuce Vaughn. Vaughn put up 1,083 scrimmage yards in his final season with the Kansas State Wildcats, yet there's a reason Vaughn wasn't taken until the sixth round by the team which employs his father. At 5'5" tall, he doesn't even meet the historical exceptions of Darren Sproles (5'6") or Maurice Jones-Drew (5'7") as a successful NFL running back to handle any sort of significant workload.

Behind them, only journeyman Royce Freeman (-0.12 RYOE/c in 2023) stands. This just isn't a talented running back room, and if there is a real, legitimate threat to Elliott's three-down role, it probably comes via trade during the season. That's certainly possible given Dallas shortens their +1800 odds to win the Super Bowl and wants to exchange a draft pick for a contributor to win now.

That prognostication is too cloudy to decipher, though. Right now, it's pretty easy to conclude that Elliott is the best running back on this roster in all situations with a history of being fed like such in Big D.

Ezekiel Elliott Fantasy Football Projection

numberFire's season-long fantasy football projections are begging you to run -- not walk -- to select Ezekiel Elliott in fantasy drafts this season, and my investigation returned a similar conclusion.

Zeke is nF's RB31 overall with a healthy, 17-game projection of 769.2 rushing yards on 194.9 carries, 25.8 receptions on 36.2 targets, 162.1 receiving yards, and 8.3 total touchdowns. That all wraps into 140.9 projected half-PPR fantasy points.

FanDuel Sportsbook's rushing props also factor in injury risk, and Elliott's yardage line sits at 575.5 with a pick 'em on each side of that number. Zeke's rushing touchdown prop is set at 5.5 with +114 odds toward the over.

Splitting work with Pollard in 2022, Elliott amassed 876 yards and 12 touchdowns. Short of injury or an addition to the roster via trade, it seems almost impossible that Elliott comes up short of those marks in a featured role. The former is always possible, but even if Elliott's efficiency buries his yardage total, eclipsing half of his 2022 total for scores at plus money? Sign me up.

I'm reaching for Elliott in just about every fantasy mock or completed draft I've done so far. Though the days of peak Zeke are well behind us, a replication in role and efficiency of his end-of-season stint with New England -- now in a significantly better offense -- should smash this ADP. Few backs were getting better work than him at the end of 2023.

Though it's plausible that a mid-season deal does hinder this low-risk selection, the reward is enormous. The fact Elliott is going behind other older, flawed backs in timeshares like Austin Ekeler, Javonte Williams, and Nick Chubb is lunacy. There's a clear path where Elliott's 2024 is a true throwback effort amidst a special season for the Cowboys.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.