Fantasy Football: Can Travis Kelce Keep Producing on Fewer Snaps?

Entering the 2024-25 NFL season, Travis Kelce will be playing in his 12th year with the Kansas City Chiefs. Kelce will be turning 35 years old before the end of the upcoming season, and many will utter the phrase "Father Time is undefeated" when speaking about the All-Pro tight end.

Following another fantastic playoff output from Kelce a season ago, the Chiefs handed him a two-year, $34.25 million contract extension. Despite wanting Kelce to stick around until he decides to call it a career, Kansas City understands the best way to extend his tenure in the NFL is to limit his snaps moving forward.

For years, Kelce has been a stellar performer in fantasy football and has consistently been one of the elite options at the tight end position. Ahead of his 12th year in the league, can Kelce continue producing gaudy numbers on fewer snaps?

Travis Kelce Fantasy Football Outlook

Kelce's 2023 Recap

After missing Week 1 due to a knee bruise he suffered in practice, Kelce still managed to finish as the TE1 in half-PPR formats from Week 1 to Week 9. In the eight games during that span, Kelce accrued 57 receptions for 597 yards and 4 touchdowns on 72 targets.

It was a slightly different story down the stretch as Kelce was the TE7 from Week 11 to Week 17 with only 36 catches, 387 receiving yards, and a touchdown on 49 targets in his final seven games of the regular season. Even though Kelce hauled in 90-plus receptions for the sixth consecutive year, the talented tight end finished last season with the fewest receiving yards (984) of his career since 2015.

While Kelce saw his snap share go down to 76.8% during last season, he still managed to record the highest target share (22.8%) and most receiving yards per game (65.6) on the Chiefs while logging the second-highest air yards share (24.1%) and second-most yards per route run (2.11), per NextGenStats. Whenever the playoffs got underway, Kelce took his game to another level once again.

Amid Kansas City's four-game postseason run en route to another Super Bowl victory, Kelce led the way with 88.8 receiving yards per game, 27.8% target share, 26.3% air yards share, and 2.73 yards per route run. Kelce also saw his snap share rise to 83.2% in the playoffs, showing that the Chiefs let him loose when it mattered most.

Kansas City undoubtedly has a Super-Bowl-or-bust mentality each season with Patrick Mahomes under center, which could lead to fewer snaps in the regular season for Kelce. At the same time, Kelce still proved to be extremely effective when he was on the field for the Chiefs.

Surrounded by More Weapons

Since the end of their second straight Super Bowl win, the Chiefs have bolstered their offense by adding new faces to the wide receiver room. Aside from signing Marquise Brown in free agency, Kansas City also used their first-round pick in the 2024 NFL Draft on Xavier Worthy from the Texas Longhorns.

With a lack of consistent weapons outside of rookie Rashee Rice last season, teams could double- or even triple-team Kelce in coverage. Trying to double- or triple-team Kelce could become troublesome for opposing teams this season with Brown and Worthy -- who set an NFL combine record with a 4.21 40-yard dash -- possessing game-changing speed out wide.

Having more weapons around Kelce could lead some to believe that he'll garner a lesser role in Kansas City's aerial attack. However, Kelce will now have more room to operate as Brown, Worthy, and Rice are capable of commanding attention from defenses down the field.

Even on fewer snaps a season ago, Kelce still registered the most yards per route run (2.49) against zone coverage among tight ends with 50-plus targets, via PFF. Slowing down a Mahomes-led offense is going to be an even taller task in 2024-25, and Kelce is still going to be a big reason why.

Travis Kelce Fantasy Football Projection

According to FantasyPros' consensus average draft position (ADP), Kelce is the 34th player off of the board and second tight end taken for half-PPR leagues in fantasy football drafts. Only Sam LaPorta carries a higher ADP (25th) than Kelce at the tight end position.

Even with the potential for fewer snaps during the regular season, numberFire's fantasy football projections predict a TE1 finish for Kelce in 2024-25. The projections forecast Kelce posting the most receptions (102.4), most receiving yards (1.061.8), and second-most receiving touchdowns (8.5) on the second-most targets (141.3) among tight ends.

Playing with Mahomes and in a Kansas City offense that has consistently been a premier unit certainly gives Kelce a relatively high floor despite a potential decrease in playing time. There's also a chance Kelce just comes off of the field during obvious running situations or late in blowouts to preserve him for meaningful passing downs.

While aging veterans can carry risk in fantasy football, Kelce still appears to be a coveted option at tight end for another year or two.

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