Fantasy Football Buy Low: Wide Receiver Breakout Candidates (Week 9)

There are a lot of ways to value NFL players for fantasy football.

Of course, how many fantasy points they score is paramount, and no amount of regression analysis or film grinding will ever change that.

However, players can overperform and underperform in certain games and timeframes, and it's important to find some sort of balance.

Is a receiver coming off of a six-target, two-touchdown game? He's probably someone we should expect to take a step back in the production department. But what if he's slotted into an elite matchup with a high game over/under?

Or if a wideout leads the league in unrealized air yards (basically a lot of high-leverage targets without as many catches as he should have), he's easy to pinpoint as a breakout candidate. But what if he's outdoors in heavy winds against a top-tier pass D? Maybe next week is his week.

For that reason, I assembled a three-tier breakout model for wide receivers.

The Breakout Score model accounts for three key things:

1. Expected Fantasy Points: Based on things like targets, air yards, red zone targets, and end zone targets, we can assign a value to a player's actual workload.
2. Game Environment: By combining some key variables such as opposing pass defense, wind, game total, and more, we can see who is in a spot actually primed for a breakout.
3. Weekly Volume Projections: Sometimes, a player gets a lot of extra volume and high-leverage looks but is in line for a role reduction with a starter returning. We can help account for that by relying on numberFire's fantasy football projections and projected rushing and target volume.

With all that out of the way, let's dig in.

Note: All NFL odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.

Week 9 Buy Low Wide Receiver Targets

Here are the top candidates whose Breakout Score is noticeably higher than their actual FanDuel points per game output over their last five games leading into Week 9.

Let's highlight a few names.

Tyreek Hill
Jaylen Waddle

Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle again make the list, and Hill's differential of +5.6 is pretty massive entering a matchup with the Buffalo Bills' 7th-ranked adjusted pass defense. However, even accounting for the road matchup, Hill is still due for substantial fantasy regression.

In Tua Tagovailoa's return to action last week, Hill earned 9 targets on 35 routes (a 25.7% target-per-route rate) with 4 downfield targets (10-plus air yards), 2 red zone targets, and an end zone target. He should've had around 13.0 FanDuel points on a workload like that -- and his Breakout Score of 12.3 puts him in a similar territory. Of course, this projection is still lower than you may see elsewhere -- but it's meant to account for the fact that he's facing a top-10 adjusted pass defense on the road.

Waddle's Week 8 workload was less impressive than Hill's, which isn't a surprise. He earned 6 targets on 33 routes (an 18.2% target per route rate, which is a little below the WR average across the league). He saw 2 downfield targets and had an average depth of target (aDOT) of 8.7 yards, though he didn't see any red zone targets despite a 91.7% red zone snap rate.

Are better days ahead for this duo? Absolutely -- even with a tough matchup upcoming.

Calvin Ridley

Calvin Ridley a buy-low candidate after a 15-target, 143-yard game? Yes, by our definition.

Ridley's last five games -- including the breakout last week -- still show plenty of room for growth. In last week's game without DeAndre Hopkins, Ridley accounted for a 39.5% target share and a 45.7% air yards share. He earned 15 targets on 36 routes (41.7% target per route rate), and 9 of his targets were at least 10 yards downfield. Not only this, but Ridley also accounted for a carry.

The New England Patriots' adjusted pass defense ranks 28th, and they're 31st in yards per route rate allowed to opposing WRs. While the Tennessee Titans' implied team total is just 20.5, they're at home, and Ridley is now in the running to lead each week in targets and air yards.

Tyler Lockett
Jaxon Smith-Njigba

Without D.K. Metcalf last week (who didn't practice at all due to a sprained MCL), Jaxon Smith-Njigba led the Seattle Seahawks with a 25.9% target share. He turned 7 targets into 69 yards and had 2 downfield targets plus a red zone target for a pretty strong weighted workload.

Tyler Lockett led the team in route rate (90.6%) but had just 9 yards and 3 targets on 29 routes.

This week, they project for substantial volume (assuming Metcalf is out), and they face the Los Angeles Rams' 25th-ranked adjusted pass defense at home while holding an above-average implied team total in a game with a 48.5-point over/under.

This all bodes well for Seattle's pass-catchers, and JSN should still be viewed positively if Metcalf is able to suit up.

Parker Washington
Gabe Davis

The Jacksonville Jaguars' pass-catchers should be elevated this week.

Christian Kirk is out for the season due to a broken collarbone, and Brian Thomas Jr. is listed as day-to-day with a chest injury.

Even Gabriel Davis is dealing with a shoulder injury.

As a result, Parker Washington is slated for an extended workload in Week 9 against the Philadelphia Eagles' 15th-ranked adjusted pass defense.

Last week, Washington led the team in routes (25) and saw 4 targets (a 16.0% target-per-route rate). Though we're seeking more than 4 targets, Washington did get 3 downfield targets in that sample with a hefty 14.4-yard aDOT, and he saw an end zone target.

If Davis is able to play, he also rates out well in the model. Davis left after just four routes in Week 8. But on the full season, he has a 13.0-yard aDOT and a 25.7% red zone target share with a 28.0% end zone target share -- both team-best marks.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.