There are a lot of ways to value NFL players for fantasy football.

Of course, how many fantasy points they score is paramount, and no amount of regression analysis or film grinding will ever change that.

However, players can overperform and underperform in certain games and timeframes, and it's important to find some sort of balance.

Is a receiver coming off of a six-target, two-touchdown game? He's probably someone we should expect to take a step back in the production department. But what if he's slotted into an elite matchup with a high game over/under?

Or if a wideout leads the league in unrealized air yards (basically a lot of high-leverage targets without as many catches as he should have), he's easy to pinpoint as a breakout candidate. But what if he's outdoors in heavy winds against a top-tier pass D? Maybe next week is his week.

For that reason, I assembled a three-tier breakout model for wide receivers.

The Breakout Score model accounts for three key things:

1. Expected Fantasy Points: Based on things like targets, air yards, red zone targets, and end zone targets, we can assign a value to a player's actual workload.
2. Game Environment: By combining some key variables such as opposing pass defense, wind, game total, and more, we can see who is in a spot actually primed for a breakout.
3. Weekly Volume Projections: Sometimes, a player gets a lot of extra volume and high-leverage looks but is in line for a role reduction with a starter returning. We can help account for that by relying on numberFire's fantasy football projections and projected rushing and target volume.

With all that out of the way, let's dig in.

Note: All NFL odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.

Week 14 Buy Low Wide Receiver Targets

Here are the top candidates whose Breakout Score is noticeably higher than their actual FanDuel points per game output over their last three games leading into Week 14.

Let's highlight a few names.

Garrett Wilson

We have some pretty big names underperforming of late, so I'll highlight some of them this week.

Garrett Wilson has had half-PPR outputs of 6.6, 3.8, and 6.6 over his last three games, so the arrow clearly isn't up in terms of the production column. He's the WR20 by points per game on the year.

But his workload is still really good.

In that three-week split, Wilson has had a 24.0% target share and a 32.8% air yards share in the New York Jets' offense. That's worked out to 8.0 targets per game (and 2.7 downfield targets -- at least 10 yards downfield).

His catch rate over expectation (CROE) in that span, per NextGenStats, is -7.8%, and he's averaged only 33.3 yards per game without a touchdown. He hasn't scored despite 1.3 red zone and 1.0 end zone targets per game in this sample.

This week, the Jets face a mid-level Miami Dolphins pass defense. Other than that, the game environment isn't ideal: he's on the road outdoors and has a low implied team total.

But the sheer regression potential for Wilson is enough to stand out here at the top of the model.

Deebo Samuel

It's been a rough year for Deebo Samuel. He has averaged only 8.2 half-PPR points per game, ranking him outside the top 40 at the position.

Samuel, though, is seventh in all-purpose yards this season and ninth in kick return yards. His explosiveness seems to be there.

But Samuel has a -3.6% catch rate over expectation this season on a 19.6% target share. Since the Week 9 bye, Samuel has a 21.0% target share (5.5 per game) with a -10.5% CROE.

He's reeled in 44.4% of his downfield passes; the team's average is 51.9%. There's a lot of potential in his workload still, and the team is now down to their third-string running back.

Despite a matchup with a top-six pass defense, Samuel is working off of a high volume projection and is at home with a high implied team total.

Calvin Ridley

The Calvin Ridley roller coaster has led to WR40 fantasy points on a per-game basis, but things line up well for him this week against the Jacksonville Jaguars' 32nd-ranked adjusted pass defense.

The weather is a bit windy, and the team total is just okay, but Ridley has had a 20.0% single-game target share (or better) in eight straight games. Since Will Levis returned to the lineup, Ridley is averaging a 25.0% target share and 70.0 yards per game with 125.0 air yards per game.

The Jaguars are 30th in aDOT allowed and 32nd in yards per target allowed on downfield throws.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.