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Fantasy Football Buy Low: Wide Receiver Breakout Candidates (Week 11)
There are a lot of ways to value NFL players for fantasy football.
Of course, how many fantasy points they score is paramount, and no amount of regression analysis or film grinding will ever change that.
However, players can overperform and underperform in certain games and timeframes, and it's important to find some sort of balance.
Is a receiver coming off of a six-target, two-touchdown game? He's probably someone we should expect to take a step back in the production department. But what if he's slotted into an elite matchup with a high game over/under?
Or if a wideout leads the league in unrealized air yards (basically a lot of high-leverage targets without as many catches as he should have), he's easy to pinpoint as a breakout candidate. But what if he's outdoors in heavy winds against a top-tier pass D? Maybe next week is his week.
For that reason, I assembled a three-tier breakout model for wide receivers.
The Breakout Score model accounts for three key things:
- Expected Fantasy Points: Based on things like targets, air yards, red zone targets, and end zone targets, we can assign a value to a player's actual workload.
- Game Environment: By combining some key variables such as opposing pass defense, wind, game total, and more, we can see who is in a spot actually primed for a breakout.
- Weekly Volume Projections: Sometimes, a player gets a lot of extra volume and high-leverage looks but is in line for a role reduction with a starter returning. We can help account for that by relying on numberFire's fantasy football projections and projected rushing and target volume.
With all that out of the way, let's dig in.
Note: All NFL odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.
Week 11 Buy Low Wide Receiver Targets
Here are the top candidates whose Breakout Score is noticeably higher than their actual FanDuel points per game output over their last five games leading into Week 11.
Receiver | Breakout Score | Actual FDP/G (L5) | Differential |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tyreek Hill | 13.1 | 8.4 | 4.7 |
| Curtis Samuel | 5.9 | 2.4 | 3.6 |
| Jerry Jeudy | 9.5 | 5.9 | 3.5 |
| Tre Tucker | 6.5 | 3.1 | 3.4 |
| Puka Nacua | 12.5 | 9.2 | 3.4 |
| Davante Adams | 11.8 | 8.5 | 3.3 |
| Ja'Lynn Polk | 5.1 | 1.9 | 3.2 |
Let's highlight a few names.
Jerry Jeudy
Elijah Moore
In three games without Amari Cooper, targets in this Cleveland Browns offense have been super concentrated.
Player | Target% | Air Yard% | ADOT | Targets/G | Yards/G | Air Yards/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cedric Tillman | 23.7% | 35.2% | 12.5 | 10.7 | 85.0 | 133.3 |
| David Njoku | 20.7% | 12.9% | 5.2 | 9.3 | 55.3 | 48.7 |
| Elijah Moore | 20.7% | 23.1% | 9.4 | 9.3 | 51.3 | 87.3 |
| Jerry Jeudy | 17.8% | 24.3% | 11.5 | 8.0 | 56.7 | 92.0 |
In the two starts from Jameis Winston, that's also been the case.
Player | Target% | Air Yard% | ADOT | Targets/G | Yards/G | Air Yards/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elijah Moore | 24.1% | 26.4% | 10.1 | 10.5 | 56.5 | 106.5 |
| Cedric Tillman | 23.0% | 33.9% | 13.7 | 10.0 | 87.0 | 136.5 |
| Jerry Jeudy | 21.8% | 26.4% | 11.2 | 9.5 | 76.0 | 106.5 |
| David Njoku | 16.1% | 10.5% | 6.1 | 7.0 | 45.0 | 42.5 |
Three players -- Cedric Tillman, Jerry Jeudy, and Elijah Moore -- all have cleared 100 air yards per game in this two-game split.
It's not lost on me that this is a small sample, but for context, only seven players are averaging at least 100 air yards per game this season.
The New Orleans Saints are just 14th in adjusted pass defense. This game is also indoors without any wind concerns -- good for the building blocks of big games.
New Orleans' secondary let both Drake London (97 yards) and Darnell Mooney (96 yards) post big games last week without Marshon Lattimore on a myriad of deep balls.
Davante Adams
The production for Davante Adams hasn't been there in four games with the New York Jets -- but the role sure has been.
Adams holds a 30.5% target share (9.8 targets per game) in four games with New York. That's led to only 51.5 yards, however, as he has a catch rate over expectation of -13.6% in this span, per NextGenStats.
There's leverage on his looks: 2.5 downfield targets and 1.8 red zone targets per game.
This week, New York is up in tempo against a Indianapolis Colts team that is 22nd in adjusted pass defense.
The Colts are also 32nd in catch rate over expectation allowed to wide receivers (+5.7%) and allow an aDOT 0.9 yards higher than the position average.
Jameson Williams
Jameson Williams checks every box this week -- except for one. That'd be the spread. His Detroit Lions are favored by 12.5 points over the Jacksonville Jaguars. Everything else? Wheels up.
Williams is at home, he's indoors, and he's facing the league's 32nd-ranked adjusted pass defense. Not only that, but the Jaguars rank 29th in catch rate over expectation allowed and 25th in yards per route run allowed to receivers.
They have faced the fourth-lowest aDOT from opposing wideouts, sure, but they're also 32nd in yards per target allowed on downfield passes (10-plus air yards).
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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.
