3 Best NFL Player Prop Bets for Christmas Day

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up in the betting market via the NFL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook to measuring a player's potential to produce in NFL DFS on FanDuel.

Here, we're going to focus on the former.

Utilizing our NFL projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- as a guide, here are some NFL player props that look appealing for this week.

All NFL odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook and may change after this article is published.

NFL Prop Picks for Christmas Day

Najee Harris Under 43.5 Rushing Yards (-114)

Playoff positioning is the focus for each game on Christmas Day.

Kicking off the two-game Christmas Day slate, we're getting the Pittsburgh Steelers hosting the Kansas City Chiefs.

Kansas City is a top-10 adjusted rush defense on the year, and Najee Harris has been taking a backseat in the Steelers' offense in recent weeks.

From Week 1 through Week 14, Harris had averaged 17.2 carries and 67.5 rushing yards per game. In the team's last two games, Harris has had 6 and 9 carries for 14 and 42 rushing yards, respectively.

Those were against the Philadelphia Eagles and Baltimore Ravens, both of whom are top-10 adjusted rush defenses -- just like the Chiefs.

In five games against top-10 adjusted rush defenses this season, Harris has averaged 41.4 rushing yards per game while going under 44 yards in three of the five.

Now, the role seems to be scaling back, and Pittsburgh could play from behind if the spread plays true.

Nico Collins Over 94.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

Let's move into that second game of the day.

This is a lofty receiving prop for most players -- and even for Nico Collins -- but a lot points to Collins being involved heavily for the Houston Texans against the Baltimore Ravens.

The Ravens are a funnel defense, owning a top-five adjusted rush defense but a bottom-10 adjusted pass defense on the season, according to numberFire's metrics.

Additionally, Baltimore ranks 24th in average depth of target faced and 28th in yards per target allowed on downfield passes (10-plus yards downfield). They're also 23rd in pressure rate, which is pretty vital for a Texans offensive line that is 20th in PFF's pass block grade.

Collins has averaged 90.9 receiving yards per game on the year, and if you exclude his two games this season where he failed to play 50.0% of the team's offensive snaps, his per-game average shoots up to 97.3 yards per game.

The Texans lost Tank Dell (knee) in Week 16, and Dell had seen 5 downfield targets in the game before exiting (Collins finished with 4).

Collins has averaged 4.5 downfield targets per game. Dell put up 3.4 per game, and Stefon Diggs had logged 3.1. Nobody else on the team is getting more than 1.3 downfield looks per game.

As a result of nobody else really staking claim to downfield work, Collins stands to see a lot of deep shots in this matchup, and it's a good week to convert some big plays based on the specific matchup.

Lamar Jackson Over 45.5 Rushing Yards (-113)

Lamar Jackson is fresh off of a 22-yard game on the ground, but that certainly doesn't tell the full story.

Jackson ran nine times against the Steelers on Saturday in Week 16, his most carries since Week 7 (though he has had three eight-carry games in that span).

He's also getting a nice rushing matchup for a quarterback.

While the Texans are a good overall rush defense, they've let up 5.9 yards per carry to opposing quarterbacks; the league-average mark is 4.7. They're also 29th in rushing success rate defensively to the position.

When looking at Houston's allowances to the dual-threat quarterbacks they've faced -- Anthony Richardson (twice), Josh Allen, Caleb Williams, Drake Maye, and Patrick Mahomes, in my opinion -- they've allowed 45.0 rushing yards on 5.2 carries per game.

Jackson leads all quarterbacks in rushing yards per game (51.0) and is third in carries per game (8.4, which is well above the 5.2 the Texans have faced in this split referenced above).

This is a big game for Baltimore, and Jackson should run plenty again. The matchup looks right for an over.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.