Fantasy Football Buy Low: Running Back Breakout Candidates (Week 9)
Arguably the best thing about season-long fantasy football is the ability to trade.
Via the trade market, teams can dramatically alter their rosters overnight in a way that just isn't possible from free agent pickups.
It's not always easy, but if you can identify underperforming players who have the potential to improve as the season progresses, that can be the difference in making the fantasy playoffs or getting banished to the losers bracket.
That's what we'll try to do here. Now that we're a few games into the season and have a decent 2024 sample to look at, I'll be breaking down the top buy-low running backs to target every week until the deadline.
Which running backs should you trade for in fantasy football ahead of Week 9?
All NFL projections via our numbers at FanDuel Research, and NFL odds references are to FanDuel Sportsbook. Statistics via NFL Next Gen Stats and Pro Football Focus unless otherwise stated.
Buy-Low Running Back Targets for Week 9
Alexander Mattison, Las Vegas Raiders
Over the last four weeks, no running back has scored fewer fantasy points relative to expectation then Alexander Mattison. According to PFF's expected fantasy points model, Mattison has averaged 4.9 fewer points than expected in the last four games. The next-closest back (Alvin Kamara) has only scored 3.5 fewer points than expected in that span.
But that hasn't stopped the Las Vegas Raiders from leaning on Mattison early and often in a featured role. Across the last four games, Mattison has averaged 24.5 adjusted opportunities (carries plus 2x targets) per game. That propelled him to top-20 positional finishes in Weeks 6 and 7 before he fell flat with a 6.9-point performance in Week 8.
But that was against a stout Kansas City Chiefs run defense, and things get easier going forward. Vegas draws the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 9 and are off in Week 10 before getting the Miami Dolphins in Week 11. Those are much more neutral matchups, even if the Raiders will likely face a negative game script against superior teams.
Additionally, if Mattison can hold onto this role for the rest of the year, the Raiders have an even more favorable schedule in the fantasy playoffs. According to PFF's strength of schedule metrics, Vegas has the ninth-best schedule for running backs from Weeks 15-17.
Buying low on Alexander Mattison is the kind of move that could stabilize your RB2 or flex for in the immediate future before offering upside in the fantasy playoffs. And given the offense he plays for, it's a move that likely won't cost you much.
Rico Dowdle, Dallas Cowboys
Rico Dowdle was a surprise scratch from Week 8's lineup thanks to an illness. That came right after the Dallas Cowboys were on bye in Week 7, and it's perhaps opened a buy-low window for their lead back. Ezekiel Elliott and Dalvin Cook produced just 46 yards on a combined 16 carries, so I don't think we need to worry about Dowdle's role when he returns.
That's especially true considering how strong his role has been prior to the bye week. From Weeks 3-6, Dowdle averaged 13 fantasy points off 18 adjusted opportunities per game. The rest of the Dallas backfield averaged just 11 adjusted opportunities over that span.
I'd expect his utilization to jump back up to pre-bye levels when Dowdle returns, and that's plenty enough to deploy him as an RB2 in fantasy. In fact, Dowdle could have even more upside moving forward if the Cowboys' offense continues to progress. Despite the loss on Sunday, Dallas exceeded 20 points for just the third time all season against the San Francisco 49ers.
On top of that, Dallas has a favorable running back schedule going forward. In addition to already having their bye week used up, the Cowboys have PFF's No. 15 running back schedule from now until the fantasy playoffs. Consequently, Rico Dowdle is someone you can likely acquire at a discount to help you actually make the playoffs.
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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.