Eagles at Rams Single-Game NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football
This week's edition of Sunday Night Football should be a fun one between the Philadelphia Eagles and Los Angeles Rams. The Eagles are slight road favorites, and the game's 48.5-point total suggests that we should see a fair bit of scoring.
Moneyline
Spread
Total Match Points
For those unfamiliar, single-game slates feature five flex spots with identical scoring to the main slate. However, kickers are included in these contests, and there is an "MVP" roster slot. The MVP receives 1.5 times his total fantasy points, making this spot crucial.
FanDuel Research's Brandon Gdula has done a deep dive on single-game strategy, and FanDuel Research has NFL DFS projections if you select the game from the slate tab. It's worth checking out both before making your lineups.
All NFL projections via our numbers at FanDuel Research, and NFL odds references are to FanDuel Sportsbook.
Eagles at Rams NFL DFS Picks
MVP Candidates
Jalen Hurts ($14,500) tops our NFL DFS projections for this contest, which isn't shocking given that he's averaged 23.4 FanDuel points per game and just broke a three-game streak of scoring 29-plus points. He continues to be one of fantasy's most lethal dual threats, already cracking double-digit rushing TDs (11) while averaging 10.3 carries and 41.7 rushing yards per game. The only strike against Hurts is that he will presumably be the slate's most popular MVP.
Saquon Barkley ($16,000) should also draw plenty of attention as someone who's racking up 34-plus points four different times this season. Barkley is the odds favorite (+105) to win Offensive Player of the Year, averaging 134.7 scrimmage yards, 19.7 rushes, and 2.9 targets per game. His only issue is that Hurts will steal away touchdowns in the red zone, though if we include targets, Saquon still has a solid 37.5% RZ opportunity share. Regardless, anyone with his kind of ceiling is an easy click at MVP.
Matthew Stafford ($12,000) is tied with Barkley for the second-best projection behind Hurts, but he has a tougher path to spike weeks as a quarterback with zero rushing ability. Still, since Cooper Kupp ($13,500) and Puka Nacua ($13,000) returned in Week 8, Stafford has thrown for multiple touchdowns in three of four games, including a pair of four-TD outings. The Eagles are a tough matchup, though, ranking third in schedule-adjusted pass defense while allowing the fourth-fewest FanDuel points per game to QBs.
Philadelphia is also tough on running backs, ranking seventh in adjusted rush defense and giving up the fifth-fewest FanDuel points per game to the position. That isn't great news for Kyren Williams ($11,000), but few have matched his strong usage this season. Williams rarely leaves the field (88.0% snap rate) while averaging 19.1 carries and 3.1 targets per game with a 49.5% RZ opportunity share. However, his 88.6 scrimmage yards per game pale in comparison to Barkley, and red zone looks have started to skew toward the pass game over the last two weeks.
And, speaking of the Rams' passing game, the aforementioned Kupp and Nacua scored 28.6 and 24.8 points, respectively, in Week 11 versus the New England Patriots, showing they can both still pop for big scores alongside one another. Since both came back from injury, Kupp has the edge in target share (26.5% to 24.5%) while Nacua gets the nod in air yards share (31.5% to 22.8%). A difficult matchup on a slate with guys like Hurts and Barkley leave them as secondary MVP options, but we could see one (or both) blow up if this turns into a shootout.
Finally, past everyone we've already mentioned, A.J. Brown ($12,500) is the last player projected for double-digit FanDuel points, and he could featured even more prominently in the Eagles' passing attack with teammate DeVonta Smith (hamstring) ruled out. Across his six full games, Brown has soaked up a 34.4% target share, 53.2% air yards share, and 40.0% end zone target share, but his biggest hurdle is an offense that's 31st in pass rate over expectation. He shouldn't see a very high MVP roster percentage, though, making him all the more enticing versus the 23rd-ranked adjusted pass defense.
Flex Targets
Dallas Goedert ($10,000) -- Goedert could see a bump in targets with Smith out and has recorded a 17.8% target share in two games since returning from his own injury. He's posted a team-high 37.5% red zone target share in this sample, which is another encouraging sign.
Demarcus Robinson ($9,500) -- With Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua back in the fold, Robinson has remained viable with a 14.3% target share and actually has a pair of two-touchdown performances in that four-game span. He's accumulated 35 receiving yards or fewer in three of those four outings, though, so he probably needs to find the end zone again to pay off.
Jake Elliott ($9,000) and Joshua Karty ($8,500) -- On a slate with a higher total and plenty of playmakers, the kickers are more likely to take a backseat. If you're going here, Elliott is arguably the preferred choice on the favored side, but he missed two field goals and an extra point last week and has produced a poor 73.7% FG percentage this season.
Philadelphia Eagles D/ST ($9,000) and Los Angeles Rams D/ST ($8,500) -- Likewise, this likely isn't a matchup that leads to a defense cracking the optimal lineup. However, as noted earlier, the Eagles have a strong defensive unit, and Matthew Stafford had thrown a pick in six straight games before last week. Meanwhile, the Rams rate as an average unit by numberFire's metrics but have risen to first in pressure rate (41.7%), per NFL Next Gen Stats, and Jalen Hurts has the NFL's sixth-highest sack rate (9.6%).
Kenneth Gainwell ($8,000) -- Gainwell has averaged 4.2 carries and 1.1 targets per game with a 23.8% snap rate as Saquon Barkley's backup. With both Hurts and Barkley blocking his path, he hasn't scored a touchdown all season, making hard to get behind as even a dart throw, but in the event of a blowout, he could accumulate some stats in garbage time.
Jahan Dotson ($7,500) -- With DeVonta sidelined, Dotson should inherit his role and see a significant leap in snaps. However, in three games sans A.J. Brown -- one of which also didn't have Smith -- Dotson earned just an 8.5% target share in spite of an 82.2% route rate.
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