Fantasy Football Buy Low: Running Back Breakout Candidates (Week 11)

Arguably the best thing about season-long fantasy football is the ability to trade.

Via the trade market, teams can dramatically alter their rosters overnight in a way that just isn't possible from free agent pickups.

It's not always easy, but if you can identify underperforming players who have the potential to improve as the season progresses, that can be the difference in making the fantasy playoffs or getting banished to the losers bracket.

That's what we'll try to do here. Now that we're a few games into the season and have a decent 2024 sample to look at, I'll be breaking down the top buy-low running backs to target every week until the deadline.

Which running backs should you trade for in fantasy football ahead of Week 11?

All NFL projections via our numbers at FanDuel Research, and NFL odds references are to FanDuel Sportsbook. Statistics via NFL Next Gen Stats and Pro Football Focus unless otherwise stated.

Buy-Low Running Back Targets for Week 11

Nick Chubb, Cleveland Browns

Nick Chubb has been just fine since making his season debut in Week 7, but he hasn't been someone helping fantasy lineups. While Chubb scored a season-high 9.7 fantasy points in his first game back, he proceeded to total 9.2 points in the next two games combined.

So, pretty much what we'd expect a 28-year-old coming off his second major knee injury to look like.

Even so, it's been encouraging to see the Cleveland Browns award him such a hefty workload right off the bat. Chubb has earned at least 17 adjusted opportunities (carries plus 2x targets) and 3 red zone rush attempts in all three active games despite clearing a 40% snap rate just once.

His efficiency has left something to be desired, but it's not that bad. Chubb's averaged -0.20 rushing yards over expectation (RYOE) per carry through three games -- sandwiched between fantasy savants Alvin Kamara (-0.10) and Kyren Williams (-0.42). He's right in line with Kamara in yards after contact per attempt, too.

It was a tad concerning to see Jerome Ford take on 45% of snaps in Cleveland's last game before their bye, but he was awarded only 2 carries. In game scripts where the Browns aren't immediately chasing a two-touchdown lead, we could see a lot more of Chubb.

That could happen in Week 11 when Cleveland takes on the New Orleans Saints. The Saints are 31st in schedule-adjusted run defense and have permitted the fourth-most fantasy points to running backs.

The schedule toughens up a bit after that, but it's certainly manageable. According to PFF, Cleveland has the 14th-best running back strength of schedule from Weeks 15-17, so Chubb could easily be someone who starts in the fantasy playoffs if the volume holds.

Jaylen Warren, Pittsburgh Steelers

I touched on how Jaylen Warren's fantasy production has consistently fallen short of his volume expectation in last week's buy-low piece, but he did it again. Despite seeing 18 adjusted opportunities, including 3 red zone rush attempts, Warren only managed 8.5 fantasy points.

Still, that was his best fantasy outing of the year as he set season-best marks for rushing yards (66) and receiving yards (29). A lost fumble was the only thing standing in the way of Warren cracking double-digit fantasy points for the first time in 2024.

Even so, Warren is trending in the right direction, especially relative to Najee Harris. Warren and Harris played the same number of snaps for the second time in three weeks. And while Harris saw 7 more rush attempts and 2 more red zone carries, Warren bested him in routes (13-8) and targets (2-0).

That passing game work is something to monitor with Russell Wilson playing well and an air-friendly schedule coming up. Though Pittsburgh has the single-worst running back schedule for the rest of the season, that could actually help Warren if Harris prove ineffective on the ground.

Further, Warren remains a touchdown regression candidate. He's yet to score a touchdown this season despite 1.3 red zone rush attempts per game and a 15.6% red zone opportunity share. If the scoring turns up, Warren could serve as a rock-solid flex or stealth RB2 going forward.

Gus Edwards, Los Angeles Chargers

Gus Edwards returned from a four-game absence in Week 10, and he immediately stepped back into a significant role. Gus Bus totaled 55 yards on 10 carries, matching starter J.K. Dobbins' scrimmage yards despite seeing 5 fewer rush attempts and 3 fewer targets.

Yes, Dobbins still out-snapped Edwards by a significant margin (38-14) and ran 12 more routes than him. But Edwards has never been much of a pass-catcher, and he notably saw four red zone rush attempts -- twice as many as Dobbins. However, neither of the Los Angeles Chargers' top two backs scored either of the team's two rushing touchdowns -- those were saved for Justin Herbert and Hassan Haskins (who played only five snaps).

But we've seen Gus be fantasy viable as a goal line threat in the past as he was the RB20 while scoring 13 touchdowns last season. He's quietly seen a higher red zone rush share (37.5%) in games both he and J.K. Dobbins were healthy this season, and the Chargers offense has taken a step forward since their bye. Over the last five games, the Chargers rank 14th in adjusted pace and 13th in EPA per play.

Edwards should be able to take advantage of LA's newfound success on offense as their primary goal line back. That makes him someone worth targeting for RB-needy teams, especially in the thick of bye weeks.

New to FanDuel Sportsbook? You’ll receive $150 in Bonus Bets if your first bet of $5+ wins! See here for full terms and conditions. Learn about today’s other offers at FanDuel Sportsbook Promos.

Interested in playing NFL DFS? Head over to FanDuel’s daily fantasy football lobby to see all the offerings for this week's slates.

Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook and FanDuel Daily Fantasy today!

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.