With rookies starting to report to training camp, the lead up to the 2023-24 NFL season has officially begun, which means it's time to start preparing for fantasy drafts!

With the San Francisco 49ers set to open their training camp on Wednesday, July 26th, let's look at Brandon Aiyuk, who led the 49ers in targets last season and is expected to be one of the first 35 wideouts taken in fantasy drafts this year. What's his outlook in 2023?

Brandon Aiyuk Overview

Fantasy rankings and projections come from numberFire.

2022 Fantasy Points: 151.80 points
2023 Projected Points: 124.18 points
numberFire's Projected 2023 Ranking: WR32
2023 Projected Stats:

• 111.26 targets
• 67.57 receptions
• 861.35 receiving yards
• 5.63 receiving TDs

Brandon Aiyuk 2023 Fantasy Outlook

A Positive Career Trajectory and the Impact of Anchoring Bias

Since being selected with the 25th overall pick in the 2020 NFL draft, Aiyuk has had an interesting career with the 49ers. After an impactful rookie season in which he caught 60 of 93 targets for 748 yards and 5 touchdowns, Aiyuk seemed primed to take the next step as a sophomore.

He entered the 2021-22 season as a potential breakout candidate in fantasy football with high expectations. Things went wrong immediately. Aiyuk ended up in head coach Kyle Shanahan's doghouse in the preseason and played just 15 snaps in Week 1, earning 0 targets. Over the first six games of the season, he averaged just 2.5 targets per game.

Meanwhile, Aiyuk's teammate, Deebo Samuel, was dominating, averaging 9.6 targets, 6.3 receptions, 108.0 receiving yards, and 0.67 receiving touchdowns per game. The season before, Samuel missed extended time with multiple injuries, playing in just seven games. He entered the season with uncertainty from a fantasy perspective.

Later in the season, Aiyuk began to turn things around. Over the final 11 weeks of the season, he averaged 6.2 targets, 4.3 receptions, 65.5 receiving yards, and .36 receiving touchdowns per game. During that same stretch, Samuel averaged 5.0 targets, 3.5 receptions, 68.8 receiving yards, and 0.18 receiving touchdowns per game. Of course, Samuel was also adding incredible production in the rushing game, but starting in Week 8, Aiyuk nearly matched Samuel's production in the passing game.

By then, it was too late. Aiyuk had already been labeled a fantasy football bust, Samuel was a league-winner, and opinions had already been formed. When Aiyuk's fantasy expectations were the highest, he failed spectacularly. Juxtaposed against Samuel's otherworldly breakout season, Aiyuk was written off by many moving forward.

Anchoring Bias is when our minds give too much weight to initial impressions or numbers that influence our subsequent thoughts. When looking at the 49ers' passing game, many people's opinions are anchored in the 2021-22 season, resulting in positive opinions on Samuel and negative opinions on Aiyuk. Samuel's injury history from his sophomore season is given less weight -- as is Aiyuk's overall productive two-year start to his career.

Last season, things shifted. Samuel missed four games, and Aiyuk, who hasn't missed a game since his rookie season, had a career year. On a per-game basis, Aiyuk outproduced Samuel in targets, receptions, receiving yards, and receiving touchdowns. Accounting for Samuel's involvement in the rushing game, Aiyuk still averaged .3 more overall fantasy points per game in half-point PPR scoring.

Entering this season, Samuel is currently the 16th wide receiver coming off the board in drafts while Aiyuk is 31st.

Zooming out, Aiyuk's career has been trending in the right direction since his rookie season. Last year, he set career highs in targets, receptions, yards, and touchdowns. He led the 49ers' wide receivers in Pro Football Focus' (PFF) offense grade (80.3) and receiving grade (80.9). He once again looks primed for a breakout season, but his ADP and outlook are still being impacted by anchoring bias, and the memory of his disappointing start to the 2021-22 season.

Since then, starting in Week 8, he has done nearly everything right. Shanahan praised his dedication last offseason, and he was described as the best player on the field at the 49ers' OTAs in June.

Potential Changes in 2023

The two most impactful changes the 49ers' offense will experience this season are the full integration of superstar running back Christian McCaffrey into their system and potential uncertainty at the quarterback position.

McCaffrey joined the 49ers via trade in Week 7 last season and averaged 14.4 carries and 4.7 receptions per game over the final 11 weeks of the season. He was heavily involved from the moment he arrived, but a full offseason and preseason could still result in additional opportunities. The absence of Elijah Mitchell due to injury contributed slightly to McCaffrey's workload, but even with Mitchell healthy, McCaffrey will be the centerpiece of the 49ers' prolific offense.

That is excellent news for Aiyuk, whose role in the 49ers' offense has the least overlap with McCaffrey. McCaffrey's average depth of target in San Francisco last season was 1.2. Samuel, operating in his hybrid role, had an aDOT of 4.5. Aiyuk, operating as the primary downfield threat, had an aDOT of 10.3.

With Samuel working in his unique role, Aiyuk operates most often as a true number-one wideout, taking 75.8% of his snaps out wide. Asked about McCaffrey's impact on the offense in July, Shanahan noted how his presence spaces defenses into very exploitable positions, stating how he "makes it easier to get the ball to" the 49ers' other pass-catchers. That impact was felt immediately last season, but after a full offseason, it could provide an even larger boost to Aiyuk and the 49ers' other pass-catchers.

The 49ers' potential uncertainty at quarterback is a concern for Aiyuk. Although, it may not end up being a change at all, depending on how Brock Purdy recovers from his elbow surgery. In late June, Purdy was still on track to be ready for the start of the season. If he is, the 49ers' offense could pick up right where they left off.

If Purdy isn't ready, Aiyuk could be catching passes from either Sam Darnold or Trey Lance. The 49ers' offense under Kyle Shanahan has shown the ability to excel with average to below-average quarterback play multiple times, but it still wouldn't be an ideal outcome for Aiyuk. In his 10 starts last season, Purdy earned a 77.7 offense grade from PFF, 14th-best among quarterbacks, just above Aaron Rodgers and just below Justin Herbert.

Opportunity Cost: Where is Aiyuk Being Drafted?

There is an opportunity cost to every draft pick in fantasy football. When you choose to draft a player, you are also choosing to give up the opportunity to draft other players with similar average draft positions (ADP). Thinking about these tradeoffs as you maneuver through a draft can help you build a better roster.

Aiyuk is currently the 31st wide receiver coming off the board in FanDuel's best-ball contests. On FantasyPros, his ADP is 68.0.

Selecting Aiyuk at his ADP could mean passing on wide receivers Tyler Lockett, Diontae Johnson and Mike Evans, running backs Rachaad White and James Conner, and tight end Kyle Pitts.

Lockett is a perennially underrated wide receiver but will face increased target competition from rookie wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba, the first wideout taken in April's NFL draft. Johnson has been productive in the past but failed to get on the same page with Kenny Pickett last season, finishing with zero touchdowns and PFF's 62nd offense grade (69.6) at his position. Evans has recorded at least 1,000 receiving yards in every season in his nine-year career but faces a potentially catastrophic downgrade in quarterback play from Tom Brady to either Baker Mayfield or Kyle Trask.

White was heavily involved in the Buccaneers' backfield as a rookie but was inefficient, earning PFF's 68th offense grade, and will be in a far less productive offense with the change at quarterback. Conner could be in line for volume this season, but he earned PFF's 63rd offense grade, and the Arizona Cardinals have the lowest win total (4.5) in the NFL this season, according to NFL win totals odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Pitts is a generational talent, but he is coming off a disappointing sophomore season and faces a difficult combination of uncertainty with Desmond Ridder under center and the Atlanta Falcons desire to operate an extremely low-volume passing offense.

Final Verdict

In fantasy, one of the best ways to gain an edge on your opponents is to select players that are capable of outperforming their draft position.

The higher a player is drafted, the more performing to expectations is viewed as a fine outcome. For example, Tyreek Hill, currently the fourth wide receiver off the board in drafts, finishing the season as a top-five fantasy wide receiver is an excellent outcome. The further into a draft you go, the more you should be aiming to draft players that have the potential to outperform the range in which they are being selected.

With an ADP of 68, Aiyuk is currently going in the mid-to-late sixth round of fantasy drafts. In a crowded 49ers' pass-catching group, Aiyuk may not see the volume required to crack the top 10 at the wide receiver position, but after finishing last year as the WR15 in half-point PPR scoring, he certainly has the upside to outperform his current draft position.

Aged 25 and entering his fourth NFL season, Aiyuk is trending in the right direction as a critical piece of a prolific offense. The gap between his ADP and Samuel's (36.3) is the result of the tendency to assume we can correctly project which player in a duo will operate as the top option in a passing game.

Over the past couple of seasons this has happened with multiple other talented receiving duos:

• 2022-23: A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith
  • Smith finishes as the WR10 with just 5 fewer targets and 7 more receptions than Brown, providing better value on his preseason ADP
• 2022-23: Courtland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy
  • Jeudy finishes as the WR21 with just 6 fewer targets and 4 more receptions than Sutton, providing better value on his preseason ADP
• 2019-23: D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett
  • Lockett finishes as WR9, WR13, and WR13 compared to Metcalf's finishes of WR7, WR12, and WR18, providing better value on his preseason ADP
• 2019-20: Mike Evans and Chris Godwin
  • Godwin finishes as the WR2 despite Evans coming off a 1,524-yard season the year before, providing better value on his preseason ADP

There are more examples, but the point is, it is difficult to project how a passing game's target distribution will end up when there are multiple talented pass-catchers involved. In the situations above there were no wrong answers. Brown, Metcalf, and Evans still had solid seasons, but they did not outperform their draft position in the same way their teammates did. That upside is crucial to winning in fantasy football.

Entering this season, there is a two-and-a-half round difference between Samuel and Aiyuk's current ADPs. Consider taking Aiyuk later and opting for a different play where Samuel comes off the board.

Some potential two-versus-two comparisons include:

• Aiyuk and Mark Andrews vs. Samuel and Pitts
• Aiyuk and Joe Burrow vs. Samuel and Deshaun Watson/Trevor Lawrence
• Aiyuk and Jahmyr Gibbs vs. Samuel and White/Conner
• Aiyuk and Keenan Allen/Amari Cooper vs. Samuel and Lockett/Johnson/Evans

If Aiyuk comes close to matching Samuel's production this season, the players you can pair him with could provide a substantial edge over the alternatives available later.

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.