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Fantasy Football: 4 Trends to Know Heading Into Week 6

Skyler Carlin
Skyler Carlin@skyler_carlin

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Fantasy Football: 4 Trends to Know Heading Into Week 6

The sixth week of the 2024 NFL season is right around the corner, so we now have five weeks of information to use for teams around the league. Understanding trends can allow us to gain an advantage over our opponents in fantasy football, whether it be in season-long or DFS formats.

Player's usage, adjusted pace, team pass rates, defensive performances, and other factors all fit the description of trends we should keep tabs on. Keeping all of that in mind, let's discuss a few trends to know entering Week 6.

All NFL projections via our numbers at FanDuel Research, and NFL odds references are to FanDuel Sportsbook.

Fantasy Football Trends to Know for Week 6

D'Andre Swift Has Bounced Back Following a Slow Start

It was a noticeably horrid start to the season for D'Andre Swift in his debut campaign with the Chicago Bears. In the first three weeks of the season, Swift combined for only 68 rushing yards on 37 rushing attempts while he hauled in 6 of his 10 targets for 46 yards during that span.

The advanced metrics also painted an ugly picture for Swift through Week 3 as he was posting -2.25 rushing yards over expected per attempt, -0.57 rushing expected points added per attempt, and a dreadful 18.9% rushing success rate, per NextGenStats. However, the former second-round pick has turned things around in recent weeks, logging a combined 166 rushing yards and 2 touchdowns on 37 carries, along with 9 receptions for 119 yards on 9 targets in his last two outings.

Furthermore, Swift has improved to 0.35 rushing yards over expected per attempt and a 35.1% rushing success rate. Swift has certainly benefitted from facing the Los Angeles Rams and Carolina Panthers -- who are both ranked 21st or worse in numberFire's schedule-adjusted run defense -- in back-to-back contests, but he has a chance to keep things rolling versus a Jacksonville Jaguars defense that is 22nd in schedule-adjusted run defense on Sunday.

Tank Bigsby Has Shown He Deserves More Playing Time

Tank Bigsby didn't have many positives in his rookie campaign in 2023, finishing with just 132 rushing yards on 50 attempts. The start of the 2024 season has been a different story for Bigsby, who continues to show he deserves to get more work out of Jacksonville's backfield despite Travis Etienne being the current starter.

Just this past week, Bigsby exploded for 101 rushing yards and 2 rushing touchdowns on 13 carries while leading the Jaguars' running backs in snap rate (40.4%), scrimmage yards (129), and rushing yards over expected per attempt (4.72). On the season, Bigsby now leads the team in rushing yards over expected per attempt (4.19) and scrimmage yards per game (75.3) despite garnering a 27.5% snap rate.

In recent games, Etienne has been dealing with a shoulder injury, which has led to Bigsby getting more snaps on offense. While that may be the case, Bigsby has made the most of his opportunities, and he should continue seeing more touches ahead of a meeting with the Bears -- the team with the ninth-worst defensive rushing success rate (43.2%) to RBs -- in London regardless of Etienne's status.

Zay Flowers Is the Only Trustworthy Pass-Catcher On the Ravens

Lamar Jackson has the Baltimore Ravens sporting the best schedule-adjusted pass offense in the NFL entering Week 6 with a fantastic 0.16 expected points added per drop back and 48.3% passing success rate. That being said, Zay Flowers is the only pass-catcher on the Ravens who has shown any level of consistency to begin the year.

Outside of a Week 4 game where the Ravens jumped out to an early double-digit lead against the Buffalo Bills, Flowers has earned a target share of at least 25% in each game so far. Up to this point, the second-year wideout is leading Baltimore's pass-catchers in snap rate (79.0%), route rate (79.1%), target share (27.1%), and air yards share (30.0%) while leading the receivers on the team in yards per route run (1.92).

The elite usage led to Flowers having a spike week in Week 5 with 7 catches on 12 targets for 111 yards in the Ravens' overtime win over the Cincinnati Bengals. Considering that Baltimore has three tight ends getting snaps now and Rashod Bateman is essentially just a vertical threat in this offense, Flowers should be busy again in Week 6 versus a Washington Commanders team that is permitting the second-most yards per route run (1.97) to the wide receiver position.

Baltimore's Defense Appears to Be An Extreme Pass-Funneling Unit

To keep the theme on the Ravens, on the defensive side of the ball, they are shaping up to be an extreme pass-funneling unit in the early going. Just this past week, Joe Burrow carved up Baltimore's defense to the tune of 392 passing yards and 5 passing touchdowns.

While those numbers undoubtedly skew the numbers a bit, the Ravens are now sitting at No. 24 in schedule-adjusted pass defense. Comparatively, Baltimore resides at No. 4 in schedule-adjusted run defense as they are giving up the fewest rushing yards over expected per attempt (-1.34) and the fewest rushing yards overall (170) to running backs.

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Not only are the Ravens susceptible against the pass, but they are allowing big plays through the air, indicated by them having the fifth-most deep yards per target allowed (13.4). This could make Sunday's game against the Commanders a fun shootout with Washington's Jayden Daniels-led attack ranking second in schedule-adjusted pass offense.


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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.

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