Fantasy Football: 4 Deep Sleepers for Week 13
If you're in a deep league or are playing some large-field NFL DFS tournaments on FanDuel this week, you'll probably need some deep sleepers on your squad.
Here are some players who are on the majority of waiver wires but need to be on your radar this week.
We'll reference our fantasy football projections. All NFL odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook, and lines may change after this article is published.
Fantasy Football Deep Sleepers: Week 13
Alec Pierce, WR, Indianapolis Colts
FanDuel Salary: $5,600 | Yahoo! Roster Percentage: 19%
Due to a shoulder injury, Josh Downs is reportedly a "long shot" to play in Week 13 versus the New England Patriots, which opens the door for big-play threat Alec Pierce to earn some more looks.
Pierce and Downs don't exactly play similar roles, as shown by the sizable gaps in aDOT (21.8 to 6.9) and deep route rate (36.2% to 12.7%), per NFL Next Gen Stats. Despite that, when Downs was inactive in Weeks 1 and 2, Pierce enjoyed two of his best performances this season (23.0 and 14.1 FanDuel points).
Similarly, Pierce scored 16.1 FanDuel points when Michael Pittman Jr. sat out Week 10, albeit with Joe Flacco at quarterback.
When we look at Pierce's underlying numbers across that three-game sample sans Downs or Pittman, he's recorded a 20.0% target share, 37.2% air yards share, and 25.0% red zone target share, all sizable boosts above his season marks. He's also averaged 3.05 yards per route run in those games compared to 1.58 across his other nine.
Pierce is still a boom-or-bust play, but he sure looks more likely to boom when one of his key teammates is out of the picture.
A matchup against the Pats should also increase our confidence. New England has been carved up for four-touchdown days by Matthew Stafford and Tua Tagovailoa in the last two weeks, so even the raw Anthony Richardson should be able to get going following a forgettable Week 12. The Patriots now rank just 27th in schedule-adjusted pass defense.
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, Tennessee Titans
FanDuel Salary: $5,900 | Yahoo! Roster Percentage: 15%
Since DeAndre Hopkins was traded away, Nick Westbrook-Ikhine has played a much bigger role on offense, logging a 92.7% snap rate and 89.1% route rate since Week 8. While much of his 2024 fantasy success has come from lucking into six touchdowns over his last seven games -- and two of those scores came before the bump in snaps -- NWI's recent usage alongside Will Levis has been promising.
Following Levis' return in Week 10, Westbrook-Ikhine has been second on the Tennessee Titans in both target share (18.2%) and air yards share (33.8%).
While the red zone looks he was seeing in prior weeks have dried up -- further pointing to touchdown regression -- he's logged four downfield targets (10-plus air yards) in back-to-back games, which is an encouraging sign for his yardage potential going forward. This was backed by NWI racking up a season-high 117 receiving yards on just 2 receptions in Week 11.
Clearly, Westbrook-Ikhine is another guy in that boom-or-bust mold, but this is a great week to give him a shot against the Washington Commanders. Washington is 25th in adjusted pass defense and finds itself on a three-game losing streak, most recently losing a wild game against the Dallas Cowboys.
Jeremy McNichols, Washington Commanders
FanDuel Salary: $6,700 | Yahoo! Roster Percentage: 11%
Jeremy McNichols drew some attention on waiver wires that processed over Tuesday night, but he's still rostered in just 11% of Yahoo! formats.
With both Brian Robinson (ankle) and Austin Ekeler (concussion) dealing with injuries, McNichols could be pushed into a lead role in Week 13 against the Titans. The Commanders signed running back Chris Rodriguez Jr. to the active roster on Tuesday, further suggesting that Robinson and Ekeler could be out this weekend.
Given that McNichols hasn't logged more than eight rushes in a game and has just three targets all season, it's no guarantee he will take on a featured role. Rodriguez figures to earn his share of touches, as he had an 11-carry game for Washington in Week 9 and logged a pair of carries in Week 10, both games that Robinson missed.
Still, in the eight games Robinson and Ekeler have been active together, they've combined for 17.7 rushes and 5.0 targets per game, and the possibility of McNichols inheriting a good chunk of that is intriguing. Tennessee ranks seventh in adjusted rush defense, so it's not the best matchup, but Washington is a home favorite, so game script should aid the run game.
At a mid-range salary that's only a slight discount from a healthy Robinson, McNichols isn't some auto-click value on FanDuel this week. But his potential volume shouldn't be overlooked, and if nothing else, he's looking like a viable flex in deep season-long leagues.
Joshua Palmer, Los Angeles Chargers
FanDuel Salary: $5,500 | Yahoo! Roster Percentage: 16%
Josh Palmer drew a mention in Brandon Gdula's wide receiver buy low model this week alongside teammates Ladd McConkey and Quentin Johnston in a bounce-back spot versus the Atlanta Falcons.
This matchup checks a lot of boxes. The Falcons have given up the fourth-most FanDuel points per game to WRs and are 29th in adjusted pass defense. This game also has some shootout potential; it will be played indoors and has an appealing 48.5 total.
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While McConkey is the No. 1 option in the Los Angeles Chargers' passing attack, targets are still fairly spread out amongst the team's pass catchers, leaving room for a player like Palmer to have value.
In four games since Johnston's return from injury, Palmer's posted a 15.9% target share and actually leads the team in air yards share (31.4%) due to averaging 4.0 downfield targets per game. He's earned 40.0% of the end zone targets, so he's seeing valuable targets near the goal line, too.
Palmer is also coming off an encouraging Week 12 in which he led the team with 8 targets, and 7 of those were downfield, resulting in a massive 55.3% air yards share. He saw the team's lone end zone target, as well. Additionally, Palmer logged a higher route rate than Johnston (77.3% to 63.6%) for the first time since Johnston came back.
We've seen Palmer score double-digit fantasy points just once this season, but his role has the potential to lead to chunk plays and/or touchdowns, making him a sneaky play this weekend.
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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.