There are a lot of ways to value NFL players for fantasy football.

Of course, how many fantasy points they score is paramount, and no amount of regression analysis or film grinding will ever change that.

However, players can overperform and underperform in certain games and timeframes, and it's important to find some sort of balance.

Is a receiver coming off of a six-target, two-touchdown game? He's probably someone we should expect to take a step back in the production department. But what if he's slotted into an elite matchup with a high game over/under?

Or if a wideout leads the league in unrealized air yards (basically a lot of high-leverage targets without as many catches as he should have), he's easy to pinpoint as a breakout candidate. But what if he's outdoors in heavy winds against a top-tier pass D? Maybe next week is his week.

For that reason, I assembled a three-tier breakout model for wide receivers.

The Breakout Score model accounts for three key things:

1. Expected Fantasy Points: Based on things like targets, air yards, red zone targets, and end zone targets, we can assign a value to a player's actual workload.
2. Game Environment: By combining some key variables such as opposing pass defense, wind, game total, and more, we can see who is in a spot actually primed for a breakout.
3. Weekly Volume Projections: Sometimes, a player gets a lot of extra volume and high-leverage looks but is in line for a role reduction with a starter returning. We can help account for that by relying on numberFire's fantasy football projections and projected rushing and target volume.

With all that out of the way, let's dig in.

Note: All NFL odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.

Week 13 Buy Low Wide Receiver Targets

Here are the top candidates whose Breakout Score is noticeably higher than their actual FanDuel points per game output over their last three games leading into Week 13.

Let's highlight a few names.

Justin Jefferson

Just a quick shoutout to Justin Jefferson, whose breakout score is a 14.8, double that of his output of 7.4 half-PPR points per game over his last three.

Jefferson is indoors against an average pass defense with a strong implied team total.

You're starting him no matter what in season-long leagues, but an over-correction game is something to keep in mind for daily fantasy purposes.

Michael Pittman

Michael Pittman Jr. is on the list again ahead of a matchup with the New England Patriots' 27th-ranked adjusted defense.

Last week, Pittman's yardage upside flashed, and he had 96 yards on 7 targets, tied for a team-high 28.0% target share. Pittman saw four downfield targets, as well.

New England ranks 30th in yards per route run and 28th in catch rate over expectation allowed to opposing wideouts.

Christian Watson

Christian Watson checks the boxes this week.

Since Watson returned to the Packers' lineup six games ago, nobody on the team has a great target share.

However, Watson has had a lot of high-leverage looks, and Romeo Doubs exited Week 12's game with a concussion.

That could make Watson (or Jayden Reed) the WR1 in the offense and frankly put them near the top of the list for expected air yards leaders for Week 13.

The Green Bay Packers host the Miami Dolphins on Thanksgiving night. It'll be cold and a bit windy, but Watson's at home with a high average depth of target (aDOT). Miami ranks just 16th in adjusted pass defense this season.

Ladd McConkey
Quentin Johnston
Josh Palmer

The Los Angeles Chargers' trio of Ladd McConkey, Quentin Johnston, and Josh Palmer all pop in the buy low model after mostly disappointing Week 12 showings on Monday Night Football against the Baltimore Ravens.

This week, they're facing the Atlanta Falcons' 29th-ranked adjusted defense and are indoors despite being on the road.

The implied team total is strong enough here, yet the market shares are concentrated of late. Here are the splits since Johnston returned to the lineup four games ago.

Despite no elite target shares here, there are downfield targets to go around. McConkey (4.5 downfield targets per game), Palmer (4.0), and Johnston (3.8) are all averaging at least 78.8 air yards per game in this four-game sample.

The Falcons are 31st in catch rate over expectation allowed to opposing wideouts as well as last overall in catch rate allowed itself.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.