Fantasy Football: 4 Bold Predictions for Week 7

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Football is one of the most intense, exciting sports on the planet. The source of the now-ubiquitous saying "Any Given Sunday," the NFL is a place where even struggling teams have a chance to topple the best in the league. Anything can happen when you play only 17 regular season games a year.

That uncertainty is a huge driver behind the excitement the NFL generates each and every season. What's more fun than watching something totally unexpected unfold before your eyes?

That's why, this year, we'll be bringing you some bold predictions to watch for in each week the 2024 NFL season.

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NFL Bold Predictions for Week 7

Demario Douglas Reels In 70+ Receiving Yards

The New England Patriots made the move to name Drake Maye the starting quarterback for Week 6, and it immediately led to success with 21 points, 243 passing yards, and 7.4 yards per passing attempt from Maye. Keep in mind, New England reached 20 points only once over its first five games before Maye went under center. As expected, the downfield passing attack immediately got some lift thanks to the rookie's big arm.

Demario Douglas, who led the Pats' wide receivers in yards before Maye's debut, saw his numbers spike to six catches, 92 receiving yards, and one touchdown on nine targets in Week 6. He produced the 10th-most fantasy points for receivers in half-PPR a week ago, and another notable performance could be imminent against the Jacksonville Jaguars in London.

Douglas made our waiver wire targets for a reason; he's logged nine targets in three of his last four games. The Patriots' passing attempts are up to 33.0 per contest over the last three compared to 25.7 over the first three games of the season. Maye's 7.4 yards per passing attempt in his debut is also over 2.0 yards better than Jacoby Brissett's 5.2 mark this season. New England's passing game is finally becoming relevant.

Don't get me wrong, Maye still has a ton of work to do after throwing two picks paired with -0.32 expected points added per dropback (EPA/db) last week, according to NFL Next Gen Stats. However, there's an angle for more good value in this passing offense against the Jaguars, who hold the worst schedule-adjusted pass defense. Our DFS projections have Douglas recording only 44.5 receiving yards. I'm expecting another 70+ yard outing.

Jacksonville is giving up 8.1 yards per passing attempt (fourth-most), providing Maye with another chance to push the ball downfield. Since Week 3, Douglas leads the team with a 25.6% target share while sitting second in air yards share (27.6%). He dominated both categories in Maye's debut, holding team-highs of a 29.0% target share and 34.2% air yards share. Maye gave praise to Douglas this week, too, stating, "Pop, you can't guard him in a phone booth." The rookie has seemed to find his favorite target.

While Douglas is primarily lining up in the slot with the fifth-most slot snaps in the league, he's being targeted on 25.0% of his routes. The second-year receiver is getting plenty of work despite a 64.9% snap share, via PlayerProfiler. Against a bad pass defense, Douglas is in store for another productive performance.

DK Metcalf Falls Outside of Top-25 Fantasy Receivers

Now, let's look at the other end of spectrum by digging into D.K. Metcalf's cold streak. After two top-10 weekly finishes in Week 2 and Week 3, Metcalf has produced finishes of 28th, 52nd, and 49th over his last three games. While his targets and yards are still there with per-game averages of 10.0 and 69.0, Metcalf has not found the end zone during the span.

Since Week 4, Metcalf hasn't received one red zone target. He's also barely above Jaxon Smith-Njigba's 20.0% target share during the stretch (21.4% target share). However, Metcalf is still dominating deep targets with a team-high average depth of target (aDOT) of 12.8 yards and a 39.4% air yards share since Week 4.

Throwing downfield against the Atlanta Falcons could prove to difficult, though. They are allowing only 6.3 yards per passing attempt (sixth-fewest) and 193.0 passing yards per contest (ninth-fewest). Plus, Metcalf will likely be tasked with getting open against former All-Pro cornerback A.J. Terrell.

We shouldn't overlook the Falcons allowing 142.7 rushing yards per game (eighth-most), either. Seattle's offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb has consistently said the unit needs to run the ball more often. Perhaps this could finally be the week when the Seahawks get the run going.

With no red zone targets over his last three games paired with facing a secondary that rarely allows explosive plays, this is gearing up to be another disappointing performance for Metcalf. He holds the 10th-most projected fantasy points for Week 7, but this matchup has me hesitant on Metcalf's fantasy stock for Week 7 -- even with the game's 50.5 total.

Chuba Hubbard Stays Hot with 100+ Rushing Yards

Few players on the Carolina Panthers have consistently posted eye-catching numbers, which makes sense on an offense that's averaging 17.2 PPG (fifth-fewest) and 298.5 yards per game (eighth-fewest).

That's not the case for Chuba Hubbard, though. He's produced three top-10 weekly finishes since Week 3 while logging 101.8 rushing yards per game during the stretch. Hubbard has quietly looked like one of the best backs in the league, holding a Pro Football Focus 81.7 run grade, 5.3 true yards per carry (eighth-most), and six breakaway runs (fourth-most).

This checks out with other advanced stats too, including Hubbard's 1.85 rushing yards over expectation per carry (RYOE/C) since Week 3 (fourth-most among qualifying players). Chuba is logging 3.66 yards after contact per carry, which is the eighth-most among tailbacks with at least 40 carries. Among backs with at least 80 rushing attempts this season, Hubbard's yard after contact per carry leads the league.

Even with consistent negative game scripts, Hubbard has managed to post exceptional rushing numbers. With that in mind, Chuba has a good shot of reaching 100+ rushing yards yet again.

Carolina will visit the Washington Commanders on Sunday. Washington's pass defense has been under constant criticism, as it should as the league's fourth-worst adjusted unit. However, the run defense is far from safe. The Baltimore Ravens had plenty of success on the ground last week with 176 rushing yards and 4.8 yards per carry, and the Commanders are allowing 5.0 yards per carry (fourth-most).

One of the Panthers' only strengths of the season has been logging 4.7 yards per rushing attempt (ninth-most). They probably won't be hesitant to run the rock this weekend, and Washington is tied for giving up the 12th-most fantasy points per game to running backs. Hubbard is projected for 69.0 rushing yards, but that 100+ yard mark feels very much within reach.

Joe Burrow Turns in Top-5 Weekly Finish

Despite the slow 2-4 start for the Cincinnati Bengals, Joe Burrow is playing lights out football with 0.16 EPA/db (fifth-most). The Bengals still have the chance to become a real threat with +106 odds to make the playoffs while Burrow is tied for the 10th-lowest odds to win the MVP award (+2200).

Cincinnati is 5.5-point favorites on the road against the Cleveland Browns, who are the third-worst team in numberFire's nERD-based power rankings. Part of Cleveland's many problems has been an underachieving defense, which is the league's 12th-worst adjusted unit, 13th-worst adjusted pass defense, and 12th-worst adjusted run defense. Opponents are logging 7.3 yards per passing attempt against the Browns (12th-most). Burrow is averaging 7.9 yards per attempt (tied for the seventh-most).

Exceptional play paired with the Bengals touting the seventh-highest pass play rate has led to fantasy production from Burrow. He's currently QB4 while logging the fifth-most fantasy points per game. We've seen Burrow produce four top-10 weekly finishes over the last five games, including the second-most points in Week 5.

Our projections have Burrow as QB14 this week. This feels a bit undervalued; he's on a hot streak and will face an underperforming defense this week. Getting enough time against Cleveland's fifth-best pass rush grade (via PFF) could be the biggest challenge. But Cincy has the 15th-highest pass block grade right now while holding the 16th-lowest quarterback sacked rate. Burrow has not been under as much duress this season, meaning he could finally put up big numbers against the Browns.

Cincinnati also holds the 10th-highest implied total out of 22 teams on the main slate (23.5 points). Pair that with Burrow scorching hot ahead of a solid matchup, and he's a sneaky pick to produce a top-five weekly finish in fantasy.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.