Fantasy Football: 4 Bold Predictions for Week 16

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Football is one of the most intense, exciting sports on the planet. The source of the now-ubiquitous saying "Any Given Sunday," the NFL is a place where even struggling teams have a chance to topple the best in the league. Anything can happen when you play only 17 regular season games a year.

That uncertainty is a huge driver behind the excitement the NFL generates each and every season. What's more fun than watching something totally unexpected unfold before your eyes?

That's why, this year, we'll be bringing you some bold predictions to watch for in each week the 2024 NFL season.

All NFL odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook and may change after this article is published.

NFL Bold Predictions for Week 16

Bo Nix Returns to Top-5 Production

Week 15's performance was interesting from Bo Nix, to say the least. It wasn't for the faint of heart as the rookie logged a putrid 3.9 yards per passing attempt and three interceptions, yet he still threw three passing touchdowns. Even in a poor outing -- one with -0.48 expected points added per drop back (EPA/db), per NFL Next Gen Stats -- Nix still managed to record 16.5 fantasy points while finishing as the week's QB14.

We aren't that far removed from Nix producing 24.1 fantasy points per game from Week 11 to 12, in which he finished as QB3 and QB7 in back-to-back weeks. Our fantasy football projections have Nix as the QB13 this week. However, the first-year signal-caller touts a high ceiling and could have a bigger game.

On the surface, the Los Angeles Chargers look like a tough matchup as they are giving up only 17.6 points per game (the fewest). However, the Bolts were just lit up for 40 points and 506 yards last week at home by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. They were burned in any which way, giving up 10.1 yards per passing attempt and 5.7 yards per rushing attempt.

Nix's legs are what could really elevate his fantasy value this week. Week 8 was the last time he registered a rushing touchdown, and it led to 29.8 fantasy points while finishing as QB2. Los Angeles touts the 7th-best schedule-adjusted pass defense and the 15th-worst adjusted rush defense. Plus, the Chargers give up 4.7 yards per carry (seventh-most).

Attacking this rush defense would be wise, and the Denver Broncos are dealing with some injuries in their backfield as Jaleel McLaughlin (quadricep) is questionable. After handling eight rushing attempts in Week 15, Nix is likely poised for more work on the ground. L.A. has allowed the 11th-most rushing yards to quarterbacks, and Nix sports a 25.0% red zone rushing attempt share in 2024.

Along with buying Nix's fantasy stock, taking him to score a touchdown (+350) is a solid bet. The rookie also posted 0.08 EPA/db, 216 passing yards, and two passing touchdowns in his last matchup against the Chargers in Week 6.

Pat Freiermuth's Hot Streak Keeps Chugging

Since Week 13, Pat Freiermuth has finished as TE5, TE4, and TE8. During the three-game span, he leads the Pittsburgh Steelers with a 19.8% target share and a 30.8% red zone target share.

Pittsburgh's leading receiver, George Pickens (hamstring), has missed the last two games, and his status for Saturday doesn't look great after Pickens missed Tuesday's practice. Freiermuth's workload has spiked without Pickens in the lineup, with the TE carrying a 20.0% target share and absurd 36.4% red zone target share over the past two outings.

While the Baltimore Ravens boast football's third-best adjusted rush defense, defending the pass has been a completely different story as they own the eighth-worst pass D. Opponents average 7.4 yards per passing attempt (10th-most) and 258.9 passing yards per game (2nd-most) against the Ravens. Russell Wilson has been good enough to expose this weakness as he's totaled 0.03 EPA/db this season.

Furthermore, Baltimore has allowed the 11th-most FanDuel points per game to tight ends. Considering the workload Freiermuth has been getting, he should be able to take advantage of the matchup. Our projections have him as TE13 (6.9 points), but there is room for more.

After 'Muth posted 12.6 fantasy points per game over the last three, look for the Steelers' tight end to score a touchdown in his fourth straight game while producing another top-five weekly finish among tight ends.

Terry McLaurin Fails to Be a Top-25 Receiver

The Washington Commanders' Terry McLaurin has been on some kind of tear recently, averaging 21.6 fantasy points per game over the last three. However, the last time he faced the Philadelphia Eagles, McLaurin mustered only one catch for 10 receiving yards (1.5 fantasy points).

The Eagles tout one of the league's best defenses -- point blank, period. Philly has the third-best adjusted defense overall, including the third-best pass D and fifth-best rush defense. Opponents also tally only 17.6 PPG and 4.7 yards per play (both the fewest) against this daunting D. The unit allows the third-fewest FanDuel points per game to quarterbacks and the fewest to wideouts.

In the last head-to-head matchup, Jayden Daniels had one of his worst games of the season, recording -0.18 EPA/db and 6.0 yards per passing attempt. Keep in mind that Daniels ranks 10th in the NFL with 7.7 yards per passing attempt. Deep shots have been a major part of McLaurin's game, as seen in both his average depth of target (aDOT) of 14.5 yards and his 43.0% air yards share.

Our projections already have Washington's standout receiver finishing far below his recent production -- 11.4 projected fantasy points and ranking as WR15. Considering Philadelphia gives up a measly 6.1 yards per passing attempt (the fewest in the NFL), we can take this one step further by taking McLaurin to finish outside the top-25 receivers in Week 16.

Rico Dowdle Erupts for 120+ Rushing Yards

During the Dallas Cowboys' 3-1 stretch since Week 12, the run game has flourished. In that span, Rico Dowdle is averaging 119.5 rushing yards per game, 5.7 yards per carry, and 1.40 rushing yards over expectation per carry (RYOE/C).

Much of this has been thanks to favorable matchups, but that's not changing in Week 16. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are another susceptible defense, one that allows 23.3 PPG (14th-most) and 5.6 yards per play (12th-most). The Bucs' rush defense ranks as the 16th-worst adjusted unit while surrendering 4.5 yards per rushing attempt (11th-most).

Per our model, Dowdle is projected only 75.3 rushing yards -- far below his recent averages. He's averaged 140.0 rushing yards per contest over the last two and has surpassed 100 rushing yards in three straight.

I don't mind a bet on Dowdle to go for 100+ yards. But this is bold predictions -- give me Dowdle for 120+ yards.

The efficiency and level of play is all there for Dowdle during the last month. One of the few things that could stop this emerging running back is a potential negative game script. The Bucs enter the week ranked 10th in our NFL power rankings, compared to the Cowboys sitting at 25th.

However, Dallas is at home and is only a 3.5-point underdog. Plus, the Cowboys' D has Pro Football Focus' third-best pass-rush grade, and Micah Parsons boasts a league-high 41 pressures since Week 10. The Dallas defense has been playing well enough to limit Tampa Bay, which can help keep this game close and give more work to Dowdle.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.